Markets Party Like the 1920's with an Economy of the 1930's

[biglentil]

Very well said Biglentil. Yes, markets can esr stay irrational for a long time, especially when central banks are printing money at these rates. However, this site is for exchanging ideas and trying to think through options for commodity marketing, whether that be in the farming business, or other commodities like oil and mining. We're all trying to make a buck or two and i value other opinions as well as try to share a few of my own.
As far as bitcoin goes, it may be a long term loser, i originally thought the same thing. However there is a limited supply of the product, as far as i can see no one has control over it. it is a true market based product, not one even central banks can manipulate. i to think it is worth putting a few bucks in and see what happens. So far my returns in bitcoin and oil have been very good in a short period of time. If they tank, then I'll suffer the consequences, the way any market should treat me. If Van Hest is correct, these commodities will benefit because they have world wide stable value at a time when currencies are eroding.

I like the technology of blockchain and it's decentralized nature. However, the sudden institutional demand by large banks is suspicious. For example the world's largest bank JPM is calling for $600k bitcoin. These are the same guys recently fined $900m for manipulating pm's. Now they are promoting a store of value that is supposedly 'digital gold', decentralized and out of their's and government control? Doesn't make any sense. Why would they promote their competition unless they are planning a massive short attack through the derivatives market. Maybe they know that strict crypto regulations are coming down the pipe. JPM never makes a losing trade.

I'm sorry but governments and central banks are not going to allow competing currencies to compete against their counterfeiting racket. Digital transactions alway leave a trail that can be tracked, miners are energy intensive, quantum computers may already be able to defeat the algorithm, bitcoin has road mapped CBDC... I could go on buy hard assets.

[Rareearth]

Markets tend to go where no one thinks its possible or reasonable.

Why bit coin? It will happen for sure, but it’s a bigger bust than dot com ever was ( Mr Buffet doesn’t like intangibles, all investors are looking at return on investment - again with no tangibles, patience grasshoppers)

How and why has Japan managed to survive?

Skippy doesn’t know how to devalue Canadian dollar, or why he should ( this would happen if Bank of Canada lowered interest rates , good for every one except importers , and would actually lower Govt deficit)

[errolanderson]

Stock markets and bitcoin are in a massive bubble. When this bubble implodes, commodity prices will be impacted. Consumers simply cannot tolerate inflation.

Any inflation will quickly revert to deflation in many sectors (IMO). But, the food sector may be least impacted due to Covid-related disruptions and need for fresh South American supplies feeding China.

Rates cannot go up. Economics are too strained. Derivatives (the elephant) and the squeeze in credit liquidity may be the ignition for a sharp setback . . . just like 2008 (IMO).

What we are witnessing now is; for the history books.

[shtferbrains]

Lumber prices are up 2x to 3x YOY.
Does that cause inflation or is it like the unemployment rate where 47% of employable adults were collecting CERB amd that works out to 13% unemployment?

[shtferbrains]

225B in G of C bonds is sitting on the inflated B of C balance sheet
Yellow line is bonds. Pink line is Payments Canada liabilities

[ATTACH]7309[/ATTACH]

Who are the buyers that wanted all those Canadian bonds?

[errolanderson]

MARKETS PARTY LIKE THE 1920’s WITH THE ECONOMY OF THE 1930’s. Be aware of the potential for an incoming volatility shock. Printing money (stimulus) provides no lasting economy, rather deepens the incoming financial crisis and need for financial reset. ProMarket Wire, Calgary

Another big dive in gold tonite . . . .

Bulls call this a freak-of-nature. Economic reality suggest broad-based risk of incoming deflationary pressures on global commodity prices (IMO). Credit markets are strained, not to mention derivatives.

A broad-based break in commodities could break-the-grip on central bank equity manipulation. Current market strain suggests potential pick-up in price volatility straight ahead . . . .

[iceman]

Another big dive in gold tonite . . . .

Bulls call this a freak-of-nature. Economic reality suggest broad-based risk of incoming deflationary pressures on global commodity prices (IMO) . . . .

Lots of talk about big inflationary pressures coming ahead but some pretty smart minds are saying it going be deflationary. They make some very good points when it comes to labour force participation rates and demographics being deflationary.

Iceman

[bucket]

Another big dive in gold tonite . . . .

Bulls call this a freak-of-nature. Economic reality suggest broad-based risk of incoming deflationary pressures on global commodity prices (IMO). Credit markets are strained, not to mention derivatives.

A broad-based break in commodities could break-the-grip on central bank equity manipulation. Current market strain suggests potential pick-up in price volatility straight ahead . . . .

Markets are always right.

Can you tell us what wheat , canola, flax is going to do with certainty. ?

[biglentil]

Lots of talk about big inflationary pressures coming ahead but some pretty smart minds are saying it going be deflationary. They make some very good points when it comes to labour force participation rates and demographics being deflationary.

Iceman

Money supply is growing completely exponential, faster than any period in modern history. The chickens always come home to roost. However exponential growth in money supply is only part of the price inflation. The catalysts are the lockdowns, covid fear, poor productivity, loss of faith in governments and supply chain problems. When a mountain of fiat tries to secure an ever dwindling supply of commodities, history has taught us that things can spiral out of control very quickly. Infact massive monetary stimulus isn't even a requirement, it's just fuel on the fire. The rapid rise in commodity prices like grains for example are a canary in the coal mine imo.

However don't expect asset inflation in housing and the general equities market to occur with rapid price inflation in commodities. They tend to be negatively correlated. Lots of confusion stems from the large disconnect btw equity markets, faulty cpi calculations and of course Japanification. Markets like nature are not linear but cyclical and after a 10 year bear market in commodities the bull is raging.

A black swan event could throw normal metrics and time lines out the window. For example there is talk of mandatory vaccinations for the trucking industry in the US when only 50% are said to be willing to take it. Could you imagine the inflationary shock to the system if 50% of the truckers quit tomorrow? After all the demand for the necessities of life are inelastic and remain relatively constant. Lots of black swans flying around. Let's pray they don't roost, the supply side is already strained.

[farming101]

Thought this was noteworthy

[Partners]

Viterra 6 dollar feed bly for April..

[Guest]

pig barn has $7.50 feed wheat ,may, no dockage , no games

[errolanderson]

Apparently stock market trading volumes have exploded as investors appear 'going-for-broke' with cheap money and the U.S. Federal Reserve having-their-back with the printing presses.

But now, more and more analyst warnings of a possible incoming equity 'bubble-pop' event soon (in 2021).

Economics and market fundamentals no longer have anything to do with price direction. Equities continue to be a mix of irresponsible gov't debt, central bank desperation and investor greed (IMO). Believe we are witnessing history right now . . . .

[helmsdale]

It was rather rich listening to the talking heads demeaning the WSB/robinhood crowd treating the current stock market like a video game...

fine... It's not a video game, its a (V)ideo (L)ottery (T)erminal.

Beyond fundamentals.
Beyond broken.
Beyond rationality.

Much like WSB's mantra, but slightly twisted, "the Market can remain retarded, far longer than a rational individual can remain solvent."

I missed out on one of the greatest booms of modern stock market history... (not that I had piss all to throw at it.) But I have to wonder how many other individuals have finally thrown in the towel and said F U C K it! If you cant wait em out, you might as well join em.

[biglentil]

Apparently stock market trading volumes have exploded as investors appear 'going-for-broke' with cheap money and the U.S. Federal Reserve having-their-back with the printing presses.

But now, more and more analyst warnings of a possible incoming equity 'bubble-pop' event soon (in 2021).

Economics and market fundamentals no longer have anything to do with price direction. Equities continue to be a mix of irresponsible gov't debt, central bank desperation and investor greed (IMO). Believe we are witnessing history right now . . . .

Yes a mountain of paper derivatives on a finite planet. If you think the purchasing power of paper is going to go up I think you may be in for serious disappointment.