Dumb question not meant to rile.

[malleefarmer]

I know you guys are in moisture deficit as is a fair swath of mid west northern plains of usa.

How long before deficit becomes serious then onto full blown drought.

Seems reserves crucial for you guys wereas here in oz with crops grown in cool winter early spring months dry to wet can happen after one 20 mm rain fall event. Wereas that does naff all for you guys when crops are stressed early summer..

I often heard sask3 say he likes it real dry at seeding and rains will come.

When does that change.

Quite a few commentators here posing questions who dry is itvreally in russia ukraine canada midcwest.

Over the years and im talking last 25/30 since I’ve studied it intensely the USA crop lives and dies about 5 times and more often than not they get average or better crops.

Not sure i can say same about you guys as your season is shorter different

[Guest]

its a big variance here , the NE saskatchewan swamp is always only one dump from a flood. but we were dry this year . not like the south though , biggest damage to canola here was done with just two weeks of heat and dry when it was blooming
but the southern prairies is in a real moisture deficit

[ajl]

Dry talk in Jan is irrelevant. It can be on the dry side here until mid May and then turn wet for the remainder of the season like it did in 2016. Would have had a good crop that year if it would have stopped raining that fall. Northern regions need some dryness in the spring just in case you get 100 to 125 mm of rain in a week in June so it has some place to go. We always have some soil reserve around here. Last year in May the surface was getting dry in mid May and then there was 60 mm of rain starting May 21 after which flooding problems started. If you don't have real rain by mid June then dry is starting to be a real issue for cereal type crops. Hay has started to suffer if you don't see rain by mid May.

[jazz]

Snow is the moisture reserve right now mallee and its building slowly. We usually get a good dump or two in march.

But the spring winds have been killer on that bit of winter moisture last few yrs.

June is our monsoon month. Most crops make or break that month.

Hardly a time to panic here yet.

[blackpowder]

The type of soil you have indicates available precipitation patterns since last ice age. ie brown soil less than deep black etc.
The subsoil moisture is like a savings account. Right now its empty.
It takes a certain amount of water per bushel, the plant doesn't care.
It takes a few years of that for sloughs to disappear.
Too broad a statement I know but, no matter how much moisture, without rain in June you're ducked.

[malleefarmer]

So its a bit premature?

USA similar plenty of t8me?

[jazz]

So its a bit premature?

USA similar plenty of t8me?

US is a little different. Their wheat belt is ND down to KS and Oklahoma. ND SD usually get similar winters to us, but snowfall further south is more iffy. They cant rely on it as much as we can. So starting dry can be a concern.

The soy corn belt is east of the 100th meridian and their summers rains are usually pretty much guaranteed.

[malleefarmer]

US is a little different. Their wheat belt is ND down to KS and Oklahoma. ND SD usually get similar winters to us, but snowfall further south is more iffy. They cant rely on it as much as we can. So starting dry can be a concern.

The soy corn belt is east of the 100th meridian and their summers rains are usually pretty much guaranteed.

Thanks jazz.
Experts say we are in a weather markets just at moment far from it i reckon. Just treading water more political china sales russian bans argie qoutas. Waiting waiting waiting for china to cancel sales or throw a curve ball somehow that flattens the market.

[woodland]

Never lost a crop in December yet. A dump of wet snow in April or May and good rain in June can erase all dryness concerns. Our grass needs moisture either in the ground or falling from the sky by mid May or the yields start sliding.

Lots of winter for snow yet and the dugouts are fairly full after the last few wet years here.

[Sheepwheat]

The prairie region is too big to make generalizations. We’re sitting pretty. Excellent moisture position. A few miles makes a difference tho.

[Old Cowzilla]

Water table quite low here and we will be able to handle a good rain or snow event. Guys want perfect spring, corner to corner don't touch steering wheel seeding. Thats followed by fish, spray, fish,hay, fish,combine with timely 1.25 rain events. I mean I don't think I'am asking for much......

[woodland]

Water table quite low here and we will be able to handle a good rain or snow event. Guys want perfect spring, corner to corner don't touch steering wheel seeding. Thats followed by fish, spray, fish,hay, fish,combine with timely 1.25 rain events. I mean I don't think I'am asking for much......

The last few years here have been a little soggy and we’ve used tow straps and winch trucks for our “fishing” trips. A “normal” (whatever that is anymore) year would be fantastic.

We can all dream.............

[farmboy44]

Dont mean to offend you Mallee you seem to be an awful nice guy, but would you ever consider naming a thread with what the actual contents of the discussion is like all the other threads people start? Most of what you start is like a clickbait ad that you have to open to even know what is inside.

People who are interested in discussing the topic the thread pertains to are more likely to participate if the thread title at least identifies what it is about

And on the contrary, people who dont want to participate in certain topics can avoid them as well.

[helmsdale]

Seldom do I ever have "money in the bank" whether it be actual $$$, or soil moisture reserves. With the exception of 2017s crop, the previous year rarely gives any surplus moisture to carry into the next years crop.

Adoption of continuous cropping here the last 10 years also coincides with above average winter snowpacks. We have an above average snowpack this year as well, so should likely be able to get germination, the rest is up to mother nature from the middle of may till mid july. An inch the middle of may, 4-6inches in june, and if the stars align, 2 more in the beginning of july and we can grow an above average crop(likely below most areas average). If July's hot and dry, were average(considered a crop failure in most areas), and if heat comes earlier like the middle of june, you're left to pick shit with the chickens for 10 months till you can roll the dice all over again.

[helmsdale]

If you put any stock in longer term seasonal outlooks, heres the latest from ECCC:

These have been trending dryer, and warmer the closer we get, which brings them closer in alignment with NOAA.