Grain markets continue up

[Rareearth]

It will be really interesting and telling when the grain exporters and crushers start to pull contracted grain in early.

[burnt]

It will be really interesting and telling when the grain exporters and crushers start to pull contracted grain in early.

Happening already. Our contract is for March delivery and they called for the beans to be delivered in about 10 days.

I'm not complaining - the terms remain the same.

[Guest]

they were doing it here in october, nov, dec

[macdon02]

We hit a hiccup. To be resumed

[malleefarmer]

Rainfall outlooks have become favorable for struggling Russian farmers, with a higher percent of normal forecast for the next 14 days. If this moisture eventuates then we may see some opti- mism return for Russian wheat production. This could have a det- rimental effect on US wheat futures which in turn affects our lo- cal pricing. A lot still needs to go right for Russian growers, as it may still not be enough to significantly boost their production estimates for the 21/22 season. Large areas of the US are turn- ing dry as well, with key winter wheat areas such as Kansas not likely to see much meaningful moisture in the next 14 days.
Prolonged dryness for much of 2020 has put question marks on Brazil’s production potential for the 21/22 season. The outlook for Brazil is not improving and there are some concerns about their potential soybean and corn crops. They are a major exporter of both of these commodities and compete directly with the US. They will need around 2 inches a week at this stage in the year for their outlook to improve and this is looking increasingly un- likely. The map to the right is a drought monitor map that shows the extent of the soil moisture deficits in South America.
Argentina has had drought problems for longer than Brazil and is facing not only production issues but supply chain issues. Much of Argentina's wheat and corn is produced within the vicinity of their main export ports which are located on the Parana river (mostly near the city of Rosario.) The river levels are currently at decade lows and this is causing massive issues for ships enter- ing these ports. They can no longer be filled to capacity simply due to running the risk of getting bogged. Not only that but a se- ries of strikes has crippled their port facilities. The weather map to the left indicates that there may be some rain on the horizon, but this is far from enough. Argentina needs rain and they need it now.

[Richard5]

You sound like a jealous farmer that sold out too soon

No I am around half sold at an avg of $12. Will sell another 10-15 % any day now.

The only reason I made the comment is for those that think they will hit the top with it all. Its pretty much impossible to know that and at $14+, that's great profits. Why not get to a reasonable % that would protect you both on downside and avg up on the other.

[makar]

End of nov pioneer sent me a text i could fill oct barley contracts for 4.50. Problem was spot was 5.25, even me or farma arent that stupid.

[fjlip]

$14.41 , where are we going???

[beaverdam]

Could be some nervousness ahead of next Tues UDSA report, particularly corn and wheat.

Corn: The Canaries are Coughing

by Barchart - Fri Jan 8, 6:20AM CST
Things are getting interesting in the corn market these days. I’ve had a number of conversations this week with the common theme being concern King Corn’s rally could be nearing its end. For now, my standard answer is maybe (remember, I used to be a commodity broker so it’s best to hedge my bets), but we haven’t seen fundamental reads on real market fundamentals (as opposed to USDA’s imaginary version) turn bearish. By this I mean track futures spreads on my cmdtyVeiw Cost of Carry table (with 33% or less considered bullish) and national average basis via the cmdty National Corn Basis Index (NCBI, weighted national average). But these two important canaries in King Corn’s coal mine are starting to cough, meaning we need to keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks. The March-May futures spread has fallen from an inverse of 0.75 cent on December 31 to an inverse of 1.5 cents one week later at the close of business January 7, covering only 8% of calculated full commercial carry. But the trend has turned down, meaning the carry is now expected to strengthening reflecting a less bullish commercial view of supply and demand. Additionally, the NCBI is starting to show cracks as well, weakening for three consecutive days after coming in at 17.61 cents under March futures Thursday afternoon. Again, basis could still be considered bullish but looks to be starting a bearish trend. Why does this matter? A good friend of mine used to talk about Grains’ Golden Rule in his presentations, with that rule being “First basis, then spreads, then futures.” And since we just passed the anniversary of Sir Isaac Newton’s birthday, the father of technical analysis, let’s recall how we can apply his First Law of Motion to markets with “A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force, with that outside force usually noncommercial activity.” This brings us back to last Friday’s weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) that showed noncommercial interest holding a net-long futures position of almost 511,000 contracts, reportedly the largest in eight years. Darin Newsom President Darin Newsom Analysis Inc.

BChart Wheat comments;

Wheat markets open the Friday session steady to 4 cents lower. The selling pressure has been mainly in the KC HRW contracts. Thursday wheat trading left the board weaker. CBT futures closed 4 1/4 to 5 1/4 cents lower. KC wheat closed 3 3/4 to 5 cents in the red. MGE futures ended the day down by 2 1/2 to 3 cents. A Reuters survey shows analysts expect USDA to report winter wheat acreage at 31.528 million (between 0% lower and 6% higher yr/yr). On average HRW acreage is estimated to increase 3.6% from 2020/21 to 22.14m acres; and SRW is estimated at 5.884m acres, up 5.6% yr/yr. December 1 wheat stocks are estimated at 1.695 bbu. December 2019 stocks were 1.841 billion. Wheat export sales were reported at 275,313 MT. That was down 48% wk/wk, but still 241% above the same week last year. Total commitments were 20.84 MMT as of 12/31, with 34% HRW, 28.7% HRS, and 26.7% white. Monthly Census data showed 69.5 mbu of wheat was shipped in November. That was a 10 yr high for November. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 17 MMT from 16.8 MMT due to realizing higher than expected yields.

Hard to think wheat plantings could rise, with corn and soybean prices where they're at.

[checking]

Farmers are spooked by return to food protectionism in Argentina (Jan 07, 2021).
Three of Argentina's four main farm associations have told members to halt trading between Jan 11 and Jan 13. They are worried that the ban on corn exports until March 1 will extend to other products like wheat and beef. Argentina is the world's third largest corn exporter.

Locally, I see this morning 18.50 bids for Feb/Mar for flax. We always trail the real prices. Bucket, what's the scoop?

[farmaholic]

checking, better call your local Scoular.

[farming101]

Actually, still not high enough to entice acres here.
Why grow flax for 19 when Specialty canola is 16+ picked up?