Canola,,, where we a goin' ? ? ?

[errolanderson]

....but will fundamentals have more influence than technical chart analysis. In the short and long term.

Once China sales are covered and funds decide to bail-their-longs, price party is over . . . 'Demand is king' in the commodity world (IMO).

[SASKFARMER]

All that is nice Errol but how could a massive Canola crop that all experts were predicting not come true.

Yet one stupid farmer went out on a limb and called it an average at best over all three provinces.

Why the BIg BIG BIG SHIT SHOW>

Now SA will be dry for the next two weeks how will that effect Soy and other crops.

Just saying china can be full soon but still needs south later and Canada and USA are oh so Dry.

[Oliver88]

All I wanna know is ;
Why aren’t the people that matter asking the people that were doing all the yapping about bumper canola crops and the huge carry over , why aren’t they being asked where they were getting their info(propaganda) from ?????????

Don’t kid yourself the majority of Stats Canada employees, consultants and ag speakers aren’t even in the country currently due to the cold weather. They might not enjoy getting interrupted on the beach.

[Guest]

All that is nice Errol but how could a massive Canola crop that all experts were predicting not come true.

Yet one stupid farmer went out on a limb and called it an average at best over all three provinces.

Why the BIg BIG BIG SHIT SHOW>

Now SA will be dry for the next two weeks how will that effect Soy and other crops.

Just saying china can be full soon but still needs south later and Canada and USA are oh so Dry.

damn near every farmer on here, and on other places, called it for what it was , and it meant SFA
a couple of loudmouths that knew SFA about the actual canola yield, got all the airtime and the WP articles on the massive crop coming
and not a peep now

[beaverdam]

All I wanna know is ;
Why aren’t the people that matter asking the people that were doing all the yapping about bumper canola crops and the huge carry over , why aren’t they being asked where they were getting their info(propaganda) from ?????????

Yup,,, here's another question,,, to who's benefit was the propaganda spread? Their own sure, or was it done more so for others, that gained a windfall due to over selling the size of production.

You probably remember better than me CashIH,,, but I think the size of the crop was already decided by the point of those statements,,, no weather conditions were going to improve the yield. So it was a straight up lie. IMHO

[Guest]

They were still peddling their horseshit when combines started rolling in the south and canola was still being sold for $10
And all of us each thought , “ well , maybe it’s only our canola that’s buggered” ??

[beaverdam]

Turn-around-Tuesday?

Nice recovery this morning,,, maybe yesterday's action were just the "whales" knocking out the small players ahead of the next move up!???

[Sodbuster]

Huge move in the oilseeed market this morning
Canola +12.00
Soybean +46
Soyoil +1.60
Yesterday’s pullback is screaming back with new highs.

[jazz]

Better throw you marketing plan out the window because this aint a normal yr.

China is in there big time and its not clear what they are doing. Do they have actual shortages or are they pulling a mass market manipulation? Or is it the inevitable come back of commodities now with printed stimulus behind it.

Higher prices are nice but we have little market transparency at this point.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/china-started-buying-american-soybeans-from-next-year-s-crop Soy-Hungry China Gets Early Start Buying America’s 2021 Crop

Then there is this; already trying to cut off supply from Brazil due to deforestation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-15/consumer-giants-seek-ban-on-soy-from-deforested-brazil-region Food Giants Seek Ban on Soy From Deforested Brazil Region

I never follow those farmlink fools. These are the trends that matter.

[SASKFARMER]

1.33 away from 16. it's going the right direction.

[farming101]

Continuous November Canola contract. Set to roll 14 days before expiry.
The red lines point to the annual December closing price.
December 2020 saw the second highest close for the month. Only December 2012 was higher, by 50 cents

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to see how long this lasts .
We are getting trigger happy on the balance we have left .
When China stops buying is the party over ? Happened many times in the past .
But this has a different feeling to it with so much going on at once .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Will be interesting to see how long this lasts .
We are getting trigger happy on the balance we have left .
When China stops buying is the party over ? Happened many times in the past .
But this has a different feeling to it with so much going on at once .

Ask yourself this.
Is/are China such poor marketers, that they will blindly buy everything they need driving prices higher than necessary, then just stop when they have enough knowing that they were the only buyer propping prices up, and watch them fall back to where they would have been otherwise? Then not take advantage of those lower prices because they already bought enough substantially higher?

[Oliver88]

Huge move in the oilseeed market this morning
Canola +12.00
Soybean +46
Soyoil +1.60
Yesterday’s pullback is screaming back with new highs.

[ATTACH]7375[/ATTACH]

Huge day.

[farming101]

Turn-around-Tuesday?

Nice recovery this morning,,, maybe yesterday's action were just the "whales" knocking out the small players ahead of the next move up!???

Could be. As of December 29 there were no additional whales but the barbers and taxi drivers were bailing in...