Canola,,, where we a goin' ? ? ?

[farmaholic]

Technical damage today . . . fallout in Dow shaking the commodity bulls.

....but will fundamentals have more influence than technical chart analysis. In the short and long term.

[farmaholic]

Wait on the basis . . . just get the puts. This rally is providing excellent pricing opportunities. Once it breaks, everyone may be looking back and wishing they had . . . .

I assume we, grain producers, only ever see it from the seller's side. Buyers and end users must wonder too. Would everyone in the chain still be making money at $12 in fall 2021 new crop canola?

What price did Biglentil say he needed to break even on 2020 canola? All I remember saying is I hope I am never in that position. 2021 could be nerve wracking for us in the Ghetto.

If $14-$16 canola makes sense to the trade now......

[Guest]

All I wanna know is ;
Why aren’t the people that matter asking the people that were doing all the yapping about bumper canola crops and the huge carry over , why aren’t they being asked where they were getting their info(propaganda) from ?????????

[errolanderson]

....but will fundamentals have more influence than technical chart analysis. In the short and long term.

Once China sales are covered and funds decide to bail-their-longs, price party is over . . . 'Demand is king' in the commodity world (IMO).

[SASKFARMER]

All that is nice Errol but how could a massive Canola crop that all experts were predicting not come true.

Yet one stupid farmer went out on a limb and called it an average at best over all three provinces.

Why the BIg BIG BIG SHIT SHOW>

Now SA will be dry for the next two weeks how will that effect Soy and other crops.

Just saying china can be full soon but still needs south later and Canada and USA are oh so Dry.

[Oliver88]

All I wanna know is ;
Why aren’t the people that matter asking the people that were doing all the yapping about bumper canola crops and the huge carry over , why aren’t they being asked where they were getting their info(propaganda) from ?????????

Don’t kid yourself the majority of Stats Canada employees, consultants and ag speakers aren’t even in the country currently due to the cold weather. They might not enjoy getting interrupted on the beach.

[Guest]

All that is nice Errol but how could a massive Canola crop that all experts were predicting not come true.

Yet one stupid farmer went out on a limb and called it an average at best over all three provinces.

Why the BIg BIG BIG SHIT SHOW>

Now SA will be dry for the next two weeks how will that effect Soy and other crops.

Just saying china can be full soon but still needs south later and Canada and USA are oh so Dry.

damn near every farmer on here, and on other places, called it for what it was , and it meant SFA
a couple of loudmouths that knew SFA about the actual canola yield, got all the airtime and the WP articles on the massive crop coming
and not a peep now

[beaverdam]

All I wanna know is ;
Why aren’t the people that matter asking the people that were doing all the yapping about bumper canola crops and the huge carry over , why aren’t they being asked where they were getting their info(propaganda) from ?????????

Yup,,, here's another question,,, to who's benefit was the propaganda spread? Their own sure, or was it done more so for others, that gained a windfall due to over selling the size of production.

You probably remember better than me CashIH,,, but I think the size of the crop was already decided by the point of those statements,,, no weather conditions were going to improve the yield. So it was a straight up lie. IMHO

[Guest]

They were still peddling their horseshit when combines started rolling in the south and canola was still being sold for $10
And all of us each thought , “ well , maybe it’s only our canola that’s buggered” ??

[beaverdam]

Turn-around-Tuesday?

Nice recovery this morning,,, maybe yesterday's action were just the "whales" knocking out the small players ahead of the next move up!???

[Sodbuster]

Huge move in the oilseeed market this morning
Canola +12.00
Soybean +46
Soyoil +1.60
Yesterday’s pullback is screaming back with new highs.

[jazz]

Better throw you marketing plan out the window because this aint a normal yr.

China is in there big time and its not clear what they are doing. Do they have actual shortages or are they pulling a mass market manipulation? Or is it the inevitable come back of commodities now with printed stimulus behind it.

Higher prices are nice but we have little market transparency at this point.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/china-started-buying-american-soybeans-from-next-year-s-crop Soy-Hungry China Gets Early Start Buying America’s 2021 Crop

Then there is this; already trying to cut off supply from Brazil due to deforestation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-15/consumer-giants-seek-ban-on-soy-from-deforested-brazil-region Food Giants Seek Ban on Soy From Deforested Brazil Region

I never follow those farmlink fools. These are the trends that matter.