Wheat yield graph since 1910

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Weather is what happens every year. Climate is long term 30 plus years. Have never changed my position on this. I am pointing out that the chart definitely shows greater yearly variability over the last few decades in annual production levels than had happened previously. So if weather is more variable year to year resulting in greater yield variability, which is what climate change advocates have always predicted you would expect a yield chart to reflect greater yield variability year to year now that what was happening 2 or 3 GENERATIONS ago which is exactly what Mallee chart for Australia shows./

Second, I am not pinpointing small areas, others like sheepwheat are. Mallee presented a chart for Australia, not a small area. Is this representative of the world? I do not have the data to confirm so will not make a generalization like Sheepwheat did for the prairies. But in my opinion, I am guessing based on world prices we are seeing more variability in yields year to year production.

Try plotting those graphs in log scale instead, so the magnitude of the spikes is constant as a percentage, and I think you will find the variability is getting lower, not higher. A 15 bushel per acre swing from 60 bushels, is a much smaller swing than 10 bushel swing back when 30 bushels was average, by percentage. Even without doing so, it looks like the swings are no bigger in Sask.
edit, I see Sheepwheat said the same thing above while I was typing.

[dmlfarmer]

Try plotting those graphs in log scale instead, so the magnitude of the spikes is constant as a percentage, and I think you will find the variability is getting lower, not higher. A 15 bushel per acre swing from 60 bushels, is a much smaller swing than 10 bushel swing back when 30 bushels was average, by percentage. Even without doing so, it looks like the swings are no bigger in Sask.
edit, I see Sheepwheat said the same thing above while I was typing.

Perfect political SPIN AF5. Changing the graph to showing percentage change rather than actual production is a great way to spin the data! I sure importing nations are happy to justify keeping world prices low by saying farmers should not be paid more when production is short because percentage wise production is not down that much so we should not have to pay more even though production is short. Bucket must love such thinking and arguments!

[farming101]

Perfect political SPIN AF5. Changing the graph to showing percentage change rather than actual production is a great way to spin the data! I sure importing nations are happy to justify keeping world prices low by saying farmers should not be paid more when production is short because percentage wise production is not down that much so we should not have to pay more even though production is short. Bucket must love such thinking and arguments!

The chart does not show production in the area under consideration. It is showing yield per acre for wheat and barley for the area.

[Sheepwheat]

The chart does not show production in the area under consideration. It is showing yield per acre for wheat and barley for the area.

If you don’t farm, things like that are easy enough to overlook.

[shtferbrains]

Western Producer had an article on an Ag Canada study that expected production to increase by up to 30% in western canada due to climate change.
Seemed quite logical the way I read it.