Biden Good For Canada

[mcfarms]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5877038 Joe Biden to sign executive order to cancel Keystone XL pipeline

Good thing I bought enbridge instead.

I own both and wil use this new to probably add to positions in both should my target prices be rereached, the Alberta govt largely removed Trp's risk to KXX project. NOW as an Alberta taxpayer I have different thoughts..

Rating: Outperform
KXL: It's not Biden's announcement that matters, it's what comes next
Biden rescinding the Keystone XL Presidential Permit should not come as a
surprise. Multiple news outlets have reported that President-elect Biden will
revoke the Presidential Permit for Keystone XL (KXL) on his first day in office. Given
comments stating Biden's opposition to KXL back in May 2020, we do not think this
action should come as a surprise to the market.
Could a renewable commitment save the project? TC Energy announced that it
will achieve net zero emissions for the project when it is placed into service in 2023,
while committing to fully power KXL by renewable energy no later than 2030. While
we would be surprised if this saves the project, if KXL does move forward, we would
see this as a slight positive for the share price.
What comes next is more important for the stock. If the Presidential Permit is
revoked, we believe the market will look to TC Energy for the path forward, which
we think will be important as it relates to share price performance. Specifically, we
outline our thoughts on various scenarios:
• TC Energy walks away (this is likely the best case scenario). We believe the
market will view TC Energy walking away from KXL as the best outcome for
the stock, particularly as we think the stock currently reflects little, if any, value
for KXL and investors can now focus on the "utility-like" story. Further, the
stock's value could benefit from potential recoveries from shippers as well as the
potential actions against the U.S. government, similar to the US$15 billion NAFTA
lawsuit when President Obama rejected KXL. While we remain unclear as to the
applicability of the investor-state dispute settlement transition provisions under
USMCA (which replaced NAFTA), we see this as a free option.
• TC Energy re-applies for the permits with costs substantially covered by thirdparties (slightly negative for the shares). At this point, we believe that investors
would rather TC Energy walk away from the project, but if the company is able
to secure third-party funding (e.g., Alberta government) to cover the costs of a
new application process, we believe that the company may pursue this route. We
see this scenario resulting in a modest overhang for the stock related to future
news flow.
• TC Energy re-applies with some, or all, of the costs being covered by
shareholders (negative scenario for the share price). If the company pursues
the project without third-party funding or with shareholders splitting the funding
(e.g., 50/50), we believe the market would view this negatively.

[jazz]

Its high time to bite the bullet and go to Churchill, if MB doesnt get in the way. Get it to another ocean and tanker it out into international waters. This obstructionism is getting ridiculous already. US need heavy crudes for their feedstocks and now Venezuala is offline and Mexico no longer exporting, where will the the US get it from?

Oil age is nowhere near at an end. By the time fossile fuel energy is used to build all those windmills and solar farms and open pit mines, the panels will all be worn out and oil will have to do it over and over again until someone gets a clue and builds some nuke plants.

I am bullish on oil big time. Own Suncor and Canadian natural. This shite is going to $150 a bbl.

[chuckChuck]

Jazz, your predictions about the future of Trump and Covid missed the mark. Perhaps forecasting the future is not your strength?

[Jordy2323]

What do you think the market for oil will look like in 2030 and 2050?

Probably equal to, or more than today.
10% of Canada's electricity generation is natural gas.
Natural gas is the principal energy source for households in Alberta (72%), Saskatchewan (68%), Ontario (62%), and British Columbia (54%).
About 48 % of all U.S. homes use natural gas for heating

Oil isn't going anywhere.

[jazz]

Why dont you short oil chuck if you are so sure its done. Make more money than that solar array ever will.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I still maintian that the end goal of this obstructionism by US, regardless of party, is to break the will and the pocket book of Canadians, specifically the parts of Canada with resources. To force us to the negotiating table on their terms to join the US. Cut off our exports directly through actions such as this, and tarrifs, regulations, laws etc. Block our exports to the rest of the world and resource development in general through funding eco terrorists, useful idiots like Chuck, Native bands, etc.

Now they have a political leader who is closer aligned with the average left of center (by US standards, even most right Canadians are left) Canadian( even western), the separation pill would be easier to swallow than it would have been under Trump.

This new administration appears to be even more protectionist than Trump, expect more of this type of action against us.

But make no mistake, they need our resources, they especially need a strangle hold on our energy exports to have a virtual monopoly on the non OPEC/FSR energy to use as a negotiating tool against China etc.

We are not going to win this war by fighting every single losing battle with our biggest ( by far) trading partner, when they hold all the cards.


Edit to add, now that our governments, both federal and provincial have a direct financial stake in pipelines and energy industries, US interests have even more leverage over us, compared to leaving it in private hands.

[jazz]

We are not going to win this war by fighting every single losing battle with our biggest ( by far) trading partner, when they hold all the cards.

AF there is a school of thought that the US will need to do a defacto take over of Canada eventually. The US is going to add 75-100M more people in the next 20 yrs, mexico about the same and us maybe 15M.
Some of the fastest growing metro areas are in the US SW.

They may eventually need all the energy raw materials and even water and food that we can give them. eventually NA may become a self contained trading block.

On top of that northern shipping lanes and china and russia poking around up there. US wont stand for that long.

Of course this is lost on our leaders who keep wanting Globalism 2.0, so we keep getting taken to the cleaners instead of hammering out a real pact.

[fjlip]

Probably equal to, or more than today.
10% of Canada's electricity generation is natural gas.
Natural gas is the principal energy source for households in Alberta (72%), Saskatchewan (68%), Ontario (62%), and British Columbia (54%).
About 48 % of all U.S. homes use natural gas for heating

Oil isn't going anywhere.
[ATTACH]7436[/ATTACH][ATTACH]7437[/ATTACH]

I guess Left/Liberals/Democrats/Carbon haters need NONE of those thing to live?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes, Jazz, the other eventuality is that the US will not tolerate having a failed communist/socialist UN/Chinese vassal state, and major security risk sharing the longest undefended border in the world. Use that as a pretext to take over.
The Chinese 5G might be the catalyst, or the irresponsible immigration policies(I'm very much pro immigration, but it can be done responsibly).

[blackpowder]

Honestly?
Inviting the jobless, addicted step son to live under your roof?
No, not even the garage.
Deposit his AISH checks and set him up at a flea bag motel.
Sorry A5, your just not ruthless enough to understand where this going.

Now, will Koch be selling CA oil in 30 years? Maybe as a front for China.
Either way, if your not holding the condoms your holding the vaseline. And not one current politician will go hungry then.
Better hope our economy transitions from largely resource to something else by then. Has to use no energy though.
Hmmmmm

[Oliver88]

We would be much better off running the pipeline east and west, instead of only going south where they can discount our oil to what ever price they want to pay.

You must of missed the several years of virtue signalling and social licenses that was getting the Energy East pipeline approved. A guy by the name of Justin Trudeau was elected and due to opposition from Quebec this pipeline was cancelled.
He also cancelled Northern Gateway pipeline and Tech Resources. While he was at it he added Bill C-48 and C69 which virtually kills all new pipelines and bans shipping oil from Northern BC.

Democrats in Michigan and Biden will likely shut down Line 5 that supplies oil to Ontario. This will be interesting to see.

[blackpowder]

I really hope they do.
More from UAE i guess.