Are we near the top For Land.

[Austrian Economics]

As long as interest rates continue to fall, farmland prices will continue to rise.

There's a bit of a hiccup in the trend right now. Interest rates have trended up and that might be causing some investors to back off a bit. The economy has so many heavily indebted players in it that even a small rise in rates could trigger defaults or at the very least a reluctance to borrow.

Once interest rates go negative, you will see farmland values you would never have imagined.

It's not just farmland prices that are skyrocketing. I read yesterday that in the latter part of 2020, residential housing prices rose so quickly that they accounted for nearly 10% of Canadian GDP.

At the height of the American housing boom pre-2008, housing only accounted for 7% of their GDP.

[SASKFARMER]

Large block of land in east sask that was I think organic. Now up for rent 21000 acres good if you want hard work cleaning up a mess. You to can be a BTO.

[blackpowder]

"When cash rent is $125 in some areas, buying land for 500k seems cheap"
If you find both conditions in the same area, buy.

[zeefarmer]

The higher than normal amount of wanting to rent/wanting to buy land ads on Kijiji and Facebook tell me the top isn't in yet. The run up in crop prices since harvest will fuel the fire. Enough guys out there that will buy or rent just to stick it to someone else.

[bucket]

Keep buying !

The interest is a tax write off !

And when the interest can't be paid the write downs begin....Grain prices are not the same as the eighties and interest rates on 40,000 dollar quarters kicked the shit out of guys to the point where some lenders wrote down the loan...because the price of land had dropped to 20k..they were losing either way...better to get interest on 20k than none at all...

Can you imagine what would/will happen on land 10 times the price with the same grain prices?

[bucket]

I would think the majority of farms if they sold out would have more than enough equity to never work again, even though while running the farm, lots may have trouble making ends meet. Doesn't really make sense.

So true , slim margins in farming. Grain prices haven't indexed like land and machinery prices...

I think about the bolded statement everyday ...but what would I do with myself...the greatest accomplishment in the last 20 years has been having two kids that enjoy the farm , no video games here...and becoming functioning adults.

[burnt]

I would think the majority of farms if they sold out would have more than enough equity to never work again, even though while running the farm, lots may have trouble making ends meet. Doesn't really make sense.

So true , slim margins in farming. Grain prices haven't indexed like land and machinery prices...

I think about the bolded statement everyday ...but what would I do with myself...the greatest accomplishment in the last 20 years has been having two kids that enjoy the farm , no video games here...and becoming functioning adults.

Functional and rationally productive?

B-I-L told us a funny story yesterday - he daughter and 4 grandkids came to his farm for a visit. After a bit, the grandkids got the way kids do when they're not challenged with something productive.

So he told them they could go out and pile the wood that he had cut, split and tossed into a heap, maybe 10 or 15 cords.

When they came back into the house in about 2 or 3 minutes he couldn't quite figure out why they were back so soon.

"It is already piled", was their response.

"Town kids", he said, shaking his head.

That produced a big chuckle. And maybe a teachable moment...

[bucket]

Burnt ...to your question....Functional and rationally productive?

If they are helping the answer is yes...if they are listening yes....if they are suggesting different ways to do something....absolutely....

Both my kids are in Polytechnic now...so rationally productive is a struggle at this point...but I think so.

[SASKFARMER]

The Star of Organic has dropped acres and now those are available. Look at the rent terms etc. Yea its is fun to rent from investors.

One thing that won't happen is a write-down of loans if prices go through the roof. It will be a VT to the lender and then skippy will take the land as an asset of the crown and give it to the first Canadians. Farmers will rent it back.

With most farms corporations the write down also won't happen as zero protection.

[Old Cowzilla]

Asked neighbors if you sell out what to do with money? Well they said going by this area the smart thing to do is buy land???????????
Stock market looks like accident waitng to happen, commercial props ready for big time crash and cash in banks poor return unless you buy chunk of bank. BUT banks make money now by service charges now not lending and young people doing self banking not as many fees so is that train slowing down?

[jazz]

Once interest rates go negative, you will see farmland values you would never have imagined.

Someplaces have been on a bull run for 20 yrs. Toronto vancouver. I imagine Iowa farmland was once $5000 an acre too. Now its 3 times that. Bill was paying upwards of $12k an acre for some of his recent purchase.

Negative interest rates do not have to be posted to be in effect. So long as CPI is running higher than lending rates you have a negative rate effect. I dont see how rates can ever go back to historical norms. That would be a doubling of our debt obligations.

After covid, now I count in the things that could never happen, actually happening.