Seasonal Forecasts for upcoming growing season

[helmsdale]

NOAA released their latest seasonal forecasts this morning. Not particularly encouraging for western prairies.

Temperature anomaly
-this has been trending towards warmer than normal for the last few months.


Precipitation anomaly
-this has been trending dryer as well. There was a decent swath of moisture to be had over the winter months in earlier runs, but it has consistently said that at least the southern prairies will be looking at normal to below normal precipitation levels.


These would seem to be matching up with Drew's prognostications earlier in the month about a potentially dry and warm summer, (again at least for the central and southern prairies.)

[helmsdale]

I look out the window and there is a *respectable* amount of moisture laying in cereal and oilseed stubble, but there are certainly plenty of brown spots on legume stubble. If moisture is lacking during the growing season, those exposed areas are definitely going to struggle to get going, let alone have enough to keep going. We went into freezeup generally dry, like alot of other areas. When soil testing, I was generally unable to get the soil probe to go any deeper than 4-6", and in some places it wouldn't go beyond 2 or 3. Reserves are tapped out here, and if we end up with a couple more chinooks through the winter and not much more in the way of additional snow, alot of that moisture on the ground is going to simply disappear.

Obviously, there is alot of time between now and July for things to change, but the trend does not appear to be our friend so far.

I'd love to lock in some bushels for fall delivery with the prices we are seeing right now:

$9.00 august/sept yellow peas
$8.50 sept-dec durum

but this area is anything but a sure crop!

[bucket]

Yup seeing the same bids here....but there isn't enough moisture in the ground to germinate the crop. Period.

[helmsdale]

Yup seeing the same bids here....but there isn't enough moisture in the ground to germinate the crop. Period.

Can't you just haul a few "buckets" out of Dief? I know... sore spot...

[bucket]

Can't you just haul a few "buckets" out of Dief? I know... sore spot...

FFS ...why get me going....lmao.

[seldomseen]

Same for us up here in a typical wet region. We do have good snow cover that will help with spring germ.
No fall rains so the ground was dried right out when the snow came. It will take summer rains to grow a decent crop this year.
If my memory is any good a warm winter is often followed by a dryer summer.

[helmsdale]

Drew out with his latest prognosticator...

Holds out just enough hope to keep us from roping ourselves...

July still looking above average temp, and near to below average precip. In the Special Areas, that is generally a recipe for failure. Considering the state of soil moisture as highlighted by Les Henry in the prairies, its going to take one hell of a lot of moisture through the spring to carry any of us through July.

Here's to hoping...

[Sodbuster]

Where is here for the forecast?

[helmsdale]

Where is here for the forecast?

Here...

Also known as, "the asshole of the planet", or more spatially the special areas.

"God's country"

[helmsdale]

February 18, 2021 NOAA seasonal outlook update.

Compared to last month, the dry blob in the western united states that extends up into the canadian prairies is getting larger and the onset seems to be getting pushed earlier.



The temperature anomaly is also spreading further north from previous month.



Personal opinion, is that these "trends" are certainly moving in the wrong direction. They also seem to be worsening rather than just holding.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Helmsdale, I'm sure you follow these forecasts much closer than I do. Considering your risk of drought.
How is their track record from past years?
I followed Environment Canada's seasonal forecast for enough years to establish that they were a very reliable contrarian indicator, then gave up.

At this point, I am looking forward to an easier spring, with less snow, and less soil moisture, but that all could change in a hurry yet.

[helmsdale]

AF5, I'd say like most things, they are probably reasonably close to predicting the "larger picture." In this area, one or maybe two stray 4 mile wide thunderstorms in July can be the difference between an average and above average crop.

I'ts the trend that I try to look for though. They can predict a hot dry growing season as far out as august/september of the previous year, but seldom does the prediction made that early really mean much. From about december I start paying attention, and if they are calling for hot/dry but the trend is lessening, there's a good chance that by the time the growing season arrives, it looks nothing like what they had predicted a year out.

That said...
-the trend is not working in our favour the last three months as far as these seasonal outlooks go.
and,
-Drew is certainly hinting heavily that this upcoming growing year may not be particularly favorable. In his typical fashion though, he never outright says you'll be SOL, and figures there is a decent chance at early spring moisture.

In your's, Makar's, and Sheep's area, this could possibly be good news?