Markets

[malleefarmer]

Reading a few marketing forums tonight.

Despite this weeks moves canadian and usa farmers are super bullish.

EU/UK forums not quite so bullush but leaning that way.

I kinda struggle to see new highs unless usa canada have full blown drought and shes a big place.

Wouldnt wish drought upon anyone weve had our share.

So thinking ive gotta change my attitude and become perma bull.

Sask and jazz always bullish.

Saw this wheat chart.

[Old Cowzilla]

Still about 100 days of weather to happen before seeding here so lots could happen. BUT water table is below normal and forcasts starting to call for little moisture for next few months through western Canada. One massive snow storm I think would rattle markets. If pastures get rough start look for $100 round bales in Manitoba again!

[LEP]

I subscribe to two weather newsletters. Both are calling for dryer growing season in North America. One says there is a potential for multi-year dryness. But alittle early to say accurately.

One thing for sure is ending stocks of canola, durum and lentils which are the crops that I grow are set to be tight which should help carry better pricing into the next crop year.

Just in time for StatsCanada and Agriculture Canada to call for a massive crop coming in July.

[Sodbuster]

The bigger concern is at the present crush and exports pace canola and soybean stocks will be at 0 by July, market prices have to go up to ration demand.

[burnt]

Still about 100 days of weather to happen before seeding here so lots could happen. BUT water table is below normal and forcasts starting to call for little moisture for next few months through western Canada. One massive snow storm I think would rattle markets. If pastures get rough start look for $100 round bales in Manitoba again!

We're about there now in this area. A dry start to the growing season crimped the 1st cut hay supply.

Currently .08 to 12 cents a pound.

New crop pricing opportunity will make plowing up that older hay field pretty tempting.

[farming101]

The bigger concern is at the present crush and exports pace canola and soybean stocks will be at 0 by July, market prices have to go up to ration demand.

Not sure about canola substitution and forward demand but with regard to soybeans, demand will shift to SA in the near future. That will change the picture.
But I do agree, right now there are few stocks left in the US. If sales were to continue at the present clip the States would be sold out in 4-6 weeks(with almost half a marketing year left to go) In the end actually shipped is all that matters.
Prices could rise some more to accomplish that but maybe not as much as you think. The poor Real value has made domestic prices in Brazil reach record highs by a huge margin

[blackpowder]

I'm moderately bullish for the next six months. Inventories tight, politics the risk?
Anything past July I wont even guess. 60% new crop sold by then. And yes, we will need timely rains as that will be the new crops only supply.

[jazz]

Not bullish mallee, I am just negative on Canada and the spread between the two economies.

If you could see the wealth that has been squandered in this country you would be too. Hundred of billions in projects toasted by our govt and hundreds of billions in lost investment fleeing the country. Plus hundreds of billions in debt added now too. Canada is literally $2T poorer than 5 years ago.

[Horse]

Mallee a bit off but what are lamb prices there. The daughter sold the last of her lambs last week 85# 4.40$ per 100 weight. live weight ,cull ewe 130# 2.60$per 100 weight.
Cant believe what the consumer must be paying,be nice if that is the new normal. On a 5 to 1 ratio to cows and 175% lamb crop thats $2800 per cow.

[furrowtickler]

I think it was Canola crazy that called this rally at or before harvest .
Thumbs up 👍 for the heads up

[malleefarmer]

Mallee a bit off but what are lamb prices there. The daughter sold the last of her lambs last week 85# 4.40$ per 100 weight. live weight ,cull ewe 130# 2.60$per 100 weight.
Cant believe what the consumer must be paying,be nice if that is the new normal. On a 5 to 1 ratio to cows and 175% lamb crop thats $2800 per cow.

Lamb $8 per kilo dressed mtton older sheep $6.50 dressed per kg

[malleefarmer]

Guess point of post weve had a fair shake down last week and many expect it to go backntonhighs some as quick a two weeks before going higher

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What other marketing forums do you follow Mallee? Or anyone else.
Do I read correctly that you found info from UK forums?
Marketing posts on NAT are getting few and far between.

[malleefarmer]

This is my main one, marketing info and discussion hits saturation point at times.........theres a dose of monday morning sarcasm.........

[Horse]

Lamb $8 per kilo dressed mtton older sheep $6.50 dressed per kg

That would make our lamb price like $9.70/kilo live or over $20/kilo dressed , at about 48/50 % yield .guess better enjoy ,cant see the price staying that high..
Water bowls froze here ,guess you dont have that to worry about.