Here we go again

[Sodbuster]

It’s going to get really interesting when we add 10 million electric cars to the mix.

[rumrocks]

It’s going to get really interesting when we add 10 million electric cars to the mix.

City street lights will become obsolete, the overhead power lines will give off an dull orange light during the recharge.

[helmsdale]

It’s going to get really interesting when we add 10 million electric cars to the mix.

Electric vehicles are a drop in the bucket compared to electrification of the class 8 truck market. You're going to need small modular reactors dropped into every truck stop and a tripling at a minimum of the parking space. Imagine nearly the entire north american fleet looking to recharge in a 14 hour window.

[jazz]

It’s going to get really interesting when we add 10 million electric cars to the mix.

Well considering there are 1.2B veichles in the world they have a lot of work to do.

You will never see significant EV penetration into this market in your lifetime. Tesla cant even produce 100k cars a year and they still cant get one under $100k yet.

Add in the grid upgrades and renewables to support his and you are looking at 50 yrs before this unicorn takes flight.

And the capital for this? You are literally looking at trillions upon trillions in investment to do this at a rapid pace. Where are they going to get that from - print it I guess. Do some basic math, assume Elon gets viable EV down to $50k or something. To just swap all the cars on the planet would cost $50T dollars. That doesnt even count the grid and renewables cost to power the bloody things.

Thats why I think its all a scam. Its just a talking point to draw a bunch if useful idiots to support it but its really a backdoor payout for all these companies getting on board. They all know it cant be done.

[Hamloc]

A5 no doubt you are going to freeze in the dark! You better get yourself a backup generator and a wood stove, if you don't already have one. If it gets really bad you can gut one of your beasts, like Leaonardo in The Revenant, and crawl inside to escape the cold.

Again lots of broad sweeping generalizations from the everywhere man. Still haven't learned your lesson yet about broad sweeping generalizations without specific information yet?

Cheer up A5, you seem to be a bit negative about your province and its' future. If you are going to move stateside to escape the "commi environmentalists" in Alberta, don't choose North Dakota or Texas because they both have a ton of renewable electricity.

Germany, Britain, Australia, and California? Are they are all so similar in their grid system and their percentages of various types of renewable electricity and resources that they provide an example for the AESO? That's a stretch, to put it mildly. I am just not sure why the AESO isn't asking you for your sage advice to prevent the end of the civilized world in Alberta?

Why are you so afraid to look at the AESO's plan to integrate a larger amount of cheaper renewables and replace dirty coal with cleaner gas in your home province? Are you afraid of what you might find out? Looks like Alberta is going to ruin your argument against renewables and a lower carbon grid system.

Chuck2 have you found a province, state or country yet where battery power can supply all the power for days without adequate wind or solar power to recharge them? In Alberta we are in day 5 of colder weather and low wind generation. This morning Alberta’s power usage was 11048 megawatts at 7:45, a new high in the last 5 days. We were importing over 900 megawatts from B.C, Montana and Saskatchewan. Of the electricity generated in Alberta 92% was coming from natural gas and coal. 2.42% was coming from wind as wind was producing at 15% efficiency. Of course at 7:45 there was no solar production. So at this point I am certainly curious how you feel “Alberta is going to ruin your argument against renewable and a low carbon grid system”, in fact the numbers prove exactly the opposite. When it is cold and the air mass is stable in the middle of an Alberta winter wind and solar power are virtually non existent!!

[chuckChuck]

You must be under the mistaken idea that somebody said intermittent wind and solar would quickly replace all fossil fuel sources in the near future. The AESO is certainly not saying that nor am I.

What wind and solar can do is reduce the amount of fossil fuels used and reduce carbon emissions.

Why are you opposed to using unlimited free sources of low cost energy like wind and solar to supplement fossil sources, hydro, gas, bio-mass, cogeneration, nuclear in some places? Coal is on its way out because gas makes more sense with 50% less carbon emissions.

Keystone XL was planning to use renewable energy to run its pipeline.

As I said to A5 look at what the AESO is saying about their current integration of renewables and their plan to integrate more.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You must be under the mistaken idea that somebody said intermittent wind and solar would quickly replace all fossil fuel sources in the near future. The AESO is certainly not saying that nor am I.

What wind and solar can do is reduce the amount of fossil fuels used and reduce carbon emissions.

Why are you opposed to using unlimited free sources of low cost energy like wind and solar to supplement fossil sources, hydro, gas, bio-mass, cogeneration, nuclear in some places? Coal is on its way out because gas makes more sense with 50% less carbon emissions.

Keystone XL was planning to use renewable energy to run its pipeline.

As I said to A5 look at what the AESO is saying about their current integration of renewables and their plan to integrate more.

Your homework for the day is to look back at what the regulators and utilities in California, Ontario, Germany, Australia, Britain etc. were saying about their plans to integrate large percentage of unreliables into their network back before they exceeded the saturation point, then compare that to the results they are grappling with at this time. Then tell us how much credit we should give future pie in the sky renewable schemes proposed by any other area.
Really, please do this so you can either stop with the worthless comeback of " why don't you ask...?" And have a meaningful informed conversation.
Please.

[Hamloc]

After a quick bit of research I see that the Tesla built mega battery in Horndale, Australia can release 185 megawatt hours of electricity, or expressed a different way it can produce 185 megawatts for 1 hour. It cost $232 million Australian dollars to build. I looked this morning it takes $1.02 Australian dollars to buy a Canadian one. Alberta current power use at 7:37 this morning was 10800 megawatts. So for battery storage to supply electricity to Alberta for one hour would require 58.38 of these batteries at a construction cost of $13 278 587 000 Canadian dollars. Seems reasonable doesn’t it? At 7:37 this morning Alberta’s 23 wind farms were producing an impressive 10 megawatts of electricity, that will charge a lot of batteries!!!

[chuckChuck]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...UquG--_UlRg%3D https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...UquG--_UlRg%3D

A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids Philip J. Heptonstalland Robert J. K. Gross

The impact of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources on an electricity system depends on technological characteristics, demand, regulatory practices and renewable resources. The costs of integrating wind or solar power into electricity networks have been debated for decades yet remain controversial and often misunderstood. Here we undertake a systematic review of the international evidence on the cost and impact of integrating wind and solar to provide policymakers with evidence to inform strategic choices about which technologies to support. We find a wide range of costs across the literature that depend largely on the price and availability of flexible system operation. Costs are small at low penetrations of VRE and can even be negative. Data are scarce at high penetrations, but show that the range widens. Nonetheless, VRE sources can be a key part of a least-cost route to decarbonization.

[chuckChuck]

https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/AESO-Dispatchable-Renewables-Storage-Report-May2018.pdf https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/AESO-Dispatchable-Renewables-Storage-Report-May2018.pdf

1.4 Assessing renewables integration requirements The AESO performed a comprehensive reliability and flexibility analysis to determine the impact of integrating 30 per cent intermittent renewable into the power system by 2030. This included conducting power system and market studies based on the AESO 2017 Long-term Transmission Plan (LTP) and the AESO 2017 Long-term Outlook (LTO), respectively. Two market simulation scenarios were studied to assess the future variability on the system as more intermittent renewables are integrated: a Moderate Coal-to-gas Conversion (2018−MCTG) scenario with 2,400 MW of existing coal converted to gas, and a High Coal-to-gas Conversion (2018−HCTG) scenario with 5,300 MW of existing coal converted to gas. The scenarios were modified from the LTO to incorporate higher wind generation, replacing some hydro and solar. Various power system studies were performed to assess overall transmission reliability, including system adequacy, voltage and system stability, and system inertia. The results confirmed that there were no material challenges forecast. Current transmission development plans identified in the LTP will enable integration of the forecast level of renewables.As expected, variability increases as additional intermittent wind generation is added to the grid. However, the increase in variability occurs at a slower rate than wind additions due to the forecast regional diversity of wind connecting across the province. The size and frequency of 2018 system ramps increase, with 10-minute ramp sizes doubling to the 300–400 MW range, and the 60-minute ramp sizes doubling to the 1,400–1,600 MW range in 2030.Supply surplus situations are forecast to become slightly more frequent in the 2025 time period, but remain marginal at less than one per cent of total renewable generation through to 2030.The current approach of procuring flexibility and ramping capability through the procurement of electricity in the energy market, and regulating reserves in the ancillary services market, is forecast to provide sufficient flexibility to meet the forecast increase in variability and ramping to 2030. Reliability performance metrics remain within threshold levels through to 2030. As such, the AESO does not see a requirement to procure any additional flexibility or ramping capability via dispatchable renewables at this time.