Here we go again

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Sorry, I'm just as guilty as anybody. Saw this on FB and thought it was funny.
And about as useful I suppose as crippling the country today while dreaming of something at least 30 years away, if we start right now.

In the spirit of being agreeable, good news for Chuck. The forecasted Chinook blew in. At one point yesterday evening output was up to 85% province wide. That is an increase of infinity compared the th previous days of zero.


After 10 days of mostly zero, the yoyo is back in the air.

[TOM4CWB]

How we get to a low carbon energy system will depend on a lot of ifs. But to deny that we are heading that way is to stick your head in the desert sand.[/QUOTE]

I look forward to the day when my farm can produce enough NH3 to fuel all our farm equipment. N needs, and electricity.

NH3 makes exponentially more sense than any other carbon free energy source and will make solar economically viable to be off grid and energy self sufficient. The technology may be ten years away to make this possible... but Japan, the Aussies, California, Shipping companies [ocean Liners] and even in ground NH3 from FF will eventually become viable... if humans don't end this great civilization first!!!

Cheers

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And the yoyo string must have broke again. 14 out of 23 wind farms showing 0 output as the temperature falls after the Chinook ended.


Have a look at the graph above. Can you imagine trying to structure your energy needs around that schedule? That is what is being proposed with smart meters, peak billing and rationing etc. I've read countless articles lately all concluding that we are just going to have to accept limitations on our energy use to accommodate unreliable energy sources.

I can understand how this is plausible in times and places where AC is the biggest user of electricity. Not so much when heating, irrigation, hospitals, industry, lights etc. are important.
Edit, this computer won't let me post pictures try the link:
https://www.dispatcho.app/live/KHW1?r=1552860 https://www.dispatcho.app/live/KHW1?r=1552860

I count over 20 times this farm went to 0 or almost zero in 18 days. almost a week where it stayed at 0.

[helmsdale]

Quick math...

Suffield 1 (SUF1) is one of the more recent solar installations. Current capacity factor over the last 30 days is 8.5%. Site occupies 202ac, and has nameplate of 23MW.

Alberta seems to be requiring somewhere around 10K MW give or take peak and low throughout the day.

If we assume zero loss from charging and discharging batteries, and then take 8.8ac/MW for the solar installation, in order to get enough power during low solar in January, it looks like we would need somewhere in the neighborhood of:

10,000MW / .085 = 117,647MW installed capacity

117,647MW x 8.8ac/MW = 1,035,294ac

1,035,294 / 640ac per section / 36 sections per township = just shy of 49 townships of solar panels.

If we cover the first 12 miles of Alberta off the 49th parallel in solar panels, we can do it!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And I'm sure that the folks who are opposed to the coal mines in southern Alberta would be all for this idea.

[helmsdale]

And I'm sure that the folks who are opposed to the coal mines in southern Alberta would be all for this idea.

I'll leave it up to someone else more competent than I... But what would the battery capacity need to be to levelize a generation source that is:
-8.5% efficient
-has a long drain requirement (roughly 2:30PM to 10AM daily)
-has to operate in sub-zero temperature's
-has a high cycle requirement. (drains daily, to full charge daily)
-what sort of buffer would be required to ensure to blackouts in the dead of winter?
-what is the efficiency of charge and discharge?
-what is the efficiency in cold temperatures?

How many acres of batteries would we require?

What is the expected life span on said batteries? (quick cycle, and high drain surely shorts lifespan)

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for doing the math.
But your 8.5% is much too high. As documented in the earlier thread, in January, the week long capacity factor got as low as 0.6%. How many townships does that require? No point in having adequate supply in February if we all forze to death earlier in the winter.
Then add in heating demand, then add in fossil fuel demand in the transport sector which is promising to go electric. See if we have enough province left to grow food.

[helmsdale]

Thanks for doing the math.
But your 8.5% is much too high. As documented in the earlier thread, in January, the week long capacity factor got as low as 0.6%

That is for brooks... And honest to god, i dont know what the issue is there...

Pull up SUF1 on dispatcho.app... 8.5% is what it has managed in the month of january. we'll see whether it can maintain its "efficiency".

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That is for brooks... And honest to god, i dont know what the issue is there...

Pull up SUF1 on dispatcho.app... 8.5% is what it has managed in the month of january. we'll see whether it can maintain its "efficiency".

But, if Brooks can go that low for that period of time, then there is no reason the other solar farms can't go that long without sun. Need to budget for worst case scenario when our livelihoods and even lives are on the line.

[Hamloc]

But, if Brooks can go that low for that period of time, then there is no reason the other solar farms can't go that long without sun. Need to budget for worst case scenario when our livelihoods and even lives are on the line.

AB5 one thing that is very consistent about wind power in Alberta, when you need it most it is not there! -36 here this morning and there is 3 megawatts of electricity being produced out of a potential 1781. On day 2 of next to no production.