The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[jamesb]

Regarding the great grain robbery, Maybe its covid fear, maybe Chinese deception, maybe a culmination of failed govt policy in importing countries, and as Larry reminds us of poor sales reporting in Canada. Like many of you I spend quite a bit of time and money watching markets, paying for subscription's for market services and advisors. I follow a lot of outfits with subscription prices from very little to several thousand dollars. None of these guys foresaw what has happened. Personally for me the reality from the position of logistics is that I have to move grain from harvest right through to next summer. I know I sold on the low side for some of my production but am now selling into great prices. I am more uncertain on the crop mix for 2021 at this point at time than more years because of the fireworks in the market. IMO for most of the commodities prices for new crop haven't increased very much, its very much an inverted market. Cargill had Drew on a webnar yesterday, dry July and Aug coming he thinks. If this is the case , todays prices maybe will be a bargain.

[farming101]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

[bucket]

Regarding the great grain robbery, Maybe its covid fear, maybe Chinese deception, maybe a culmination of failed govt policy in importing countries, and as Larry reminds us of poor sales reporting in Canada. Like many of you I spend quite a bit of time and money watching markets, paying for subscription's for market services and advisors. I follow a lot of outfits with subscription prices from very little to several thousand dollars. None of these guys foresaw what has happened. Personally for me the reality from the position of logistics is that I have to move grain from harvest right through to next summer. I know I sold on the low side for some of my production but am now selling into great prices. I am more uncertain on the crop mix for 2021 at this point at time than more years because of the fireworks in the market. IMO for most of the commodities prices for new crop haven't increased very much, its very much an inverted market. Cargill had Drew on a webnar yesterday, dry July and Aug coming he thinks. If this is the case , todays prices maybe will be a bargain.

Dont forget a cool period until the middle of June ...could be freezing at the end of May....very difficult to make forward sales as a farmer with the current weather forecast but if a guy knew what the industry was doing , decisions could be made faster based on a changing weather outlook...

Look, its not a guarantee but if farmers give free weekly crop reports from spring seeding to fall harvest for the industry , there should be a little give and take on the these issues...

Its a good thing i am not in politics...first thing that would cease would be weekly crop reports until the industry provided the same.

In the words of John Dutton.....phuck it.

[Partners]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

Bumper crop coming..
Mega acres..

[bucket]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

Some farmers that can grow a crop no matter what look at that as a good price to start selling...


I am not blessed to grow a good crop no matter what happens so I am reserved in my forward sales ...I like to know I have it to sell...

I got caught once thinking I had a good crop and priced as such....only to leave it in the field and begging for forgiveness ...thankfully they were good to deal with.

[farming101]

Bumper crop coming..
Mega acres..

Mega acres yes, bumper crop remains to be seen. No one knows, but for those who care they are hedging their risks.

I am hopeful that we don't get droughted out. Soil is bone dry now, but a drought can be over in a day or so

[bucket]

Mega acres yes, bumper crop remains to be seen. No one knows, but for those who care they are hedging their risks.

I am hopeful that we don't get droughted out. Soil is bone dry now, but a drought can be over in a day or so

True we are one day closer to a rain....the caveat is...hopefully not like 2010...

[sumdumguy]

All the money in the world spent on “advisors” won’t predict. Only the farmer who lives and breaths it and snoops around can tell you - the SF’s and more. I remember the posts on here this summer saying, “Jeez these idiots predicting a huge crop are screwing up the markets” then another says, “Lock the bins”. Just sayin, when we see the BS, call BS and wait. An old farmer who kept building bins to store flax, in about 1980 told me, “Gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em. “ He died a very rich bachelor holding out. 😂

[furrowtickler]

A few things that were noticed near the end of last July ,
The crop was being overestimated
Massive flooding in the main crop area in China was virtually unreported
Soybean , corn and canola stocks were beginning to be proven overstated from previous years .

By August the heat took the bloom off over 1/2 the canola crop in western Canada . 5 bus off ?? Just a farmer guess

By mid October China had to finally start buying big .

Also this from 101 ..



Still I don’t think anyone anywhere could predict $15 canola and the big run up in corn and soy but the signs were there and prices stayed low for a long time .
Regardless, good to see reality hit and the market respond .

Also had to pay attention to canola crazy ... he was calling for a big upsurge in crop prices well before anyone .

No “paid experts” called any of the above, but the signs were being pointed out by several on here .... thankful for that 👍

[furrowtickler]

Seen this in mid fall as well , showing stocks were not as “anticipated”

[fjlip]

"take a crop tour around province in July-August. You should have a good idea whether the stats are right."
From the truck this area had a hell of a crop canopy/stand, thick, tall, but one had to do pod/seed counts and seed size measures to estimate yield. The heat in last 2-3 weeks shriveled seeds and 10-20% evaporated, literally into thin air. It's not easy. And backyarditus happens when YOUR spot is uniquely hooped by weather. 10 miles N of us way more subsoil and SAME crop look, from the road, yielded 5- 10 bu more. All is a BIG guess/estimate. The ones with the GOLD want the masses dumbed down. And it will get worse.

[ajl]

Worst part of this is now talk of $20 canola will get the inputs side on fire while most average season pricing will be in the $12 range. It will also drive a short crop with long tail problem which will make market difficult this fall. Around here, canola acreage will be up substantially and conditions as of now are 10/10. We have been getting lite snow all week so far and are not that dry to begin with. Many canola fields were summer fallow this past season so I expect close to 50% canola this summer.