The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[jazz]

Seriously, I dont know what other farmers were seeing in their fields in August. Didnt anybody get out of the truck?

In early August when the top pods were shriveling and the middle branches were getting this, I knew it was time to lock the bins.

[bucket]

What is the direct payments to farmers at in the last 4 years from Trump....100 billion in CDN and counting?????? While the shock of selling too soon doesn't sting as much. And those payments may have caused the early selling because at the time they were getting something...


In Canada we get the US price with the exchange hidden in the basis ( a crock of shit excuse) and nothing in the form of direct payments.

[jamesb]

Regarding the great grain robbery, Maybe its covid fear, maybe Chinese deception, maybe a culmination of failed govt policy in importing countries, and as Larry reminds us of poor sales reporting in Canada. Like many of you I spend quite a bit of time and money watching markets, paying for subscription's for market services and advisors. I follow a lot of outfits with subscription prices from very little to several thousand dollars. None of these guys foresaw what has happened. Personally for me the reality from the position of logistics is that I have to move grain from harvest right through to next summer. I know I sold on the low side for some of my production but am now selling into great prices. I am more uncertain on the crop mix for 2021 at this point at time than more years because of the fireworks in the market. IMO for most of the commodities prices for new crop haven't increased very much, its very much an inverted market. Cargill had Drew on a webnar yesterday, dry July and Aug coming he thinks. If this is the case , todays prices maybe will be a bargain.

[farming101]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

[bucket]

Regarding the great grain robbery, Maybe its covid fear, maybe Chinese deception, maybe a culmination of failed govt policy in importing countries, and as Larry reminds us of poor sales reporting in Canada. Like many of you I spend quite a bit of time and money watching markets, paying for subscription's for market services and advisors. I follow a lot of outfits with subscription prices from very little to several thousand dollars. None of these guys foresaw what has happened. Personally for me the reality from the position of logistics is that I have to move grain from harvest right through to next summer. I know I sold on the low side for some of my production but am now selling into great prices. I am more uncertain on the crop mix for 2021 at this point at time than more years because of the fireworks in the market. IMO for most of the commodities prices for new crop haven't increased very much, its very much an inverted market. Cargill had Drew on a webnar yesterday, dry July and Aug coming he thinks. If this is the case , todays prices maybe will be a bargain.

Dont forget a cool period until the middle of June ...could be freezing at the end of May....very difficult to make forward sales as a farmer with the current weather forecast but if a guy knew what the industry was doing , decisions could be made faster based on a changing weather outlook...

Look, its not a guarantee but if farmers give free weekly crop reports from spring seeding to fall harvest for the industry , there should be a little give and take on the these issues...

Its a good thing i am not in politics...first thing that would cease would be weekly crop reports until the industry provided the same.

In the words of John Dutton.....phuck it.

[Partners]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

Bumper crop coming..
Mega acres..

[bucket]

Why is the fall price of canola only offered at $12 right now?
Why is August delivered canola bid 3 bucks less than July?

Some farmers that can grow a crop no matter what look at that as a good price to start selling...


I am not blessed to grow a good crop no matter what happens so I am reserved in my forward sales ...I like to know I have it to sell...

I got caught once thinking I had a good crop and priced as such....only to leave it in the field and begging for forgiveness ...thankfully they were good to deal with.

[farming101]

Bumper crop coming..
Mega acres..

Mega acres yes, bumper crop remains to be seen. No one knows, but for those who care they are hedging their risks.

I am hopeful that we don't get droughted out. Soil is bone dry now, but a drought can be over in a day or so

[bucket]

Mega acres yes, bumper crop remains to be seen. No one knows, but for those who care they are hedging their risks.

I am hopeful that we don't get droughted out. Soil is bone dry now, but a drought can be over in a day or so

True we are one day closer to a rain....the caveat is...hopefully not like 2010...

[sumdumguy]

All the money in the world spent on “advisors” won’t predict. Only the farmer who lives and breaths it and snoops around can tell you - the SF’s and more. I remember the posts on here this summer saying, “Jeez these idiots predicting a huge crop are screwing up the markets” then another says, “Lock the bins”. Just sayin, when we see the BS, call BS and wait. An old farmer who kept building bins to store flax, in about 1980 told me, “Gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em. “ He died a very rich bachelor holding out. 😂