The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[blackpowder]

Keep up the reporting everyone.
Never pay an advisor. Hire information providers.
Any advisor right more than half the time wouldn't waste his time telling anyone. He'd be rich.

[malleefarmer]

Love em or hate em the whole grain complex has got China to thank unless you live here of course.

Fact can’t deny it, they almost “control” the markets at present.

[SASKFARMER]

We will be out of canola by July did sell some off combine like always do then started basis in end of December into early Jan. Now have a may and July.

Everyone should take a crop tour and explore Saskatchewan in the summer with your wife or partner or kids.

It’s fun and stop and smell the canola

[burnt]

Atleast there shouldn't be those carry over b.s. numbers at end of crop yr.

Let's hear ALL SOLD OUT..

CORN:
China has been reported to have purchased 1.6 million tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery in this marketing year. It is now the fifth time since 1994 that China has exceeded 1 million tonnes in a single day. In the USDA’s recent weekly Export Sales report, exports and undelivered sales of U.S. corn to China for delivery in the 2020-2021 marketing year total 11.8 million tonnes. China has also been reported to have purchased 200 million gallons of U.S. ethanol for shipment in the first half of this year. Futures markets have responded to this recent news by posting a 2-week high.

SOYBEANS:
Brazilian soybean harvest sits at 1 per cent complete as of last week compared to over 4 per cent last year. Recent rains have delayed early bean harvest. However later maturing beans should benefit from this moisture. The slow harvest pace in Brazil has supported soybean futures values.
U.S. crush plants have been booking soybean purchases well beyond their normal supply due to rising export demand and rising prices. There are fears of soybean shortages later this marketing year. Some crush plants have booked their soybean needs for the next 60 days rather than just their usual 30 to 40 days. U.S. soybean supplies are forecast to reach a seven -year low by the end of the marketing year, even with a large harvested crop, due to record U.S. crush and exports this year.

WHEAT:
Argentina is working to ensure ample domestic wheat supplies. They are the 7th largest wheat exporting country, with the majority of exports going to neighbouring Brazil. Of the 17.2 million tonnes of wheat harvested this year, 10 million tonnes will likely be exported. To date, official data indicated that exporters have purchased 8.9 million tonnes. Argentina may limit exports in an effort to slow increases in domestic food prices.
Australia is expected to harvest 31 million tonnes of wheat this year. This figure is more than twice the amount harvested last year as drought limited production to an estimated 15 million. A grain handler in the New South Wales region is reported to have deliveries of 8.4 million tonnes so far this year compared to 500,000 tonnes last year at this time.

Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario

[TechAnalyst]

Something to consider:
If other countries have reporting (usually the US is mentioned), why are there farmers in those countries lamenting that they sold too much grain too soon?

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

A market is for price discovery. As more information becomes available prices adjust.
And never forget that part of the market functions on pure emotion. Humans still make the decisions

This is likely the most important post I've seen here yet, it's worth reading again.

When marketing grain you have to accept you're always going to be wrong. If prices go up you sold too much. If prices go down you didn't sell enough. The sooner one embraces that the better.

Then you break up sales into small enough increments so you can still be satisfied with the final outcome.

I layed out the potential for this move 13 months ago but would Never have suggested to avoid any sales until these prices.

That said, there is still no excuse for the lack of reporting.

It would have been hard to predict how aggressive China would have been with purchases (from the US) but it certainly helps to have it reported so one knows as its developing.

[SASKFARMER]

If NA and Europe have production problems. Yes were all dry in this together. Then Lookout the prices locked in for fall will be not even close to what the world will have to pay.

[bucket]

Something to consider:
If other countries have reporting (usually the US is mentioned), why are there farmers in those countries lamenting that they sold too much grain too soon?

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

A market is for price discovery. As more information becomes available prices adjust.
And never forget that part of the market functions on pure emotion. Humans still make the decisions

There is no market exchange in Canada for any grain and the market we use from the US exchanges is or has been distorted by 100 billion in direct payments to farms.

In reality Canada should be the price setter with an exchange for flax, lentils, peas, durum canola....

In the words of George Bush.....knot gonna happen.

[jazz]

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

101, I agree, but until the otherside, the holders of paper are reigned in, farmers do not have price discovery so they resort to the only thing they know, hiding it.

Look what happened to gamestop this week and probably tesla as well. One side is shorting it hard and the cult is pushing back on it. Nobody has any idea what the true value of these companies are because of the manipulation.

Same thing when buying stocks with target or stops or putting in targets on crop prices. Those just expose your hand and you end up paying more or getting less or getting stopped out. The little fit in the canola market for a few days was a prime example of a shakeout that probably caught some people again.

Personally, I dont want sale reported better because that would just become a USDA type report that would hurt us more than help.

[bucket]

101, I agree, but until the otherside, the holders of paper are reigned in, farmers do not have price discovery so they resort to the only thing they know, hiding it.

Look what happened to gamestop this week and probably tesla as well. One side is shorting it hard and the cult is pushing back on it. Nobody has any idea what the true value of these companies are because of the manipulation.

Same thing when buying stocks with target or stops or putting in targets on crop prices. Those just expose your hand and you end up paying more or getting less or getting stopped out. The little fit in the canola market for a few days was a prime example of a shakeout that probably caught some people again.

Personally, I dont want sale reported better because that would just become a USDA type report that would hurt us more than help.

Interesting comments Jazz

Let me ask this question and its not to be argumentative ...

If the USDA is wrong on a report , isn't it the market's responsibility to correct it?

So at the very least the USDA may , by design, inaccurately report for whatever reason but the market is suppose to clear that muddy water...

Now in Canada you have neither a timely report or a functioning market because Canadian farmers are priced off a muddied US market by direct payments....

Devil's advocate thinking.

[jazz]

There are little things in our grain markets that should help producers and again I hold fast on my guideline to not sell until Q2 to Q3 following harvest.

The reason being most ag lands are in northern hemisphere, so all the crop is coming off at the same time. Russia and FSU are our major competitors at that time and they are typically dumpers, getting rid of most of their supply before xmas.

US has a hard time storing mega corn and soy bushels on farms thats why they haul it straight in off the combine and they want to get on the Miss in case there are problems over the winter or in the spring.

Pulses are going to India and associated countries and they target their religious festivals with supply. They often prebuy so they have enough on had for those times.

So usually Canada looks attractive in the spring. And shipping on the St lawrence opens back up.

Also there is usually a lot of uncertainty during seeding. Usually someplace has too much moisture and others have not enough, then it all kind of straightens out in June.

[bucket]

There are little things in our grain markets that should help producers and again I hold fast on my guideline to not sell until Q2 to Q3 following harvest.

The reason being most ag lands are in northern hemisphere, so all the crop is coming off at the same time. Russia and FSU are our major competitors at that time and they are typically dumpers, getting rid of most of their supply before xmas.

US has a hard time storing mega corn and soy bushels on farms thats why they haul it straight in off the combine and they want to get on the Miss in case there are problems over the winter or in the spring.

Pulses are going to India and associated countries and they target their religious festivals with supply. They often prebuy so they have enough on had for those times.

So usually Canada looks attractive in the spring. And shipping on the St lawrence opens back up.

Also there is usually a lot of uncertainty during seeding. Usually someplace has too much moisture and others have not enough, then it all kind of straightens out in June.

Good comments , but , if you look at the past 5 years harvest prices were as good as holding if you factor in the extra cost of storage, augers etc .

2020 has been what most years should do, to an extreme, where the prices rise as inventories become more defined.

Although 2020 will be one for the record books. I wouldn't think every year will work out like this...

If the drought takes hold though....all bets are off. No pricing yet and with a hot summer predicted for 2021 with a cool spring prior to that.....its a crap shoot...and I am leaving the seeding options open...no definitive seeding plans yet...everyone says wheat is a sleeper ...cant make that decision to seed it in July so maybe they will start buying acres soon.

[shtferbrains]

That Gamestop is an eye opener

2 funds were trying to manipulate on shorts and pulled out yesterday reportedly down 5 billion

Got in a war with a bunch of small day traders on Reddit.

Stock has no real value but the 5 billion changed hands.

Couldn't happen but for social media.

It's a new world.