The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[furrowtickler]

A few things that were noticed near the end of last July ,
The crop was being overestimated
Massive flooding in the main crop area in China was virtually unreported
Soybean , corn and canola stocks were beginning to be proven overstated from previous years .

By August the heat took the bloom off over 1/2 the canola crop in western Canada . 5 bus off ?? Just a farmer guess

By mid October China had to finally start buying big .

Also this from 101 ..



Still I don’t think anyone anywhere could predict $15 canola and the big run up in corn and soy but the signs were there and prices stayed low for a long time .
Regardless, good to see reality hit and the market respond .

Also had to pay attention to canola crazy ... he was calling for a big upsurge in crop prices well before anyone .

No “paid experts” called any of the above, but the signs were being pointed out by several on here .... thankful for that 👍

[furrowtickler]

Seen this in mid fall as well , showing stocks were not as “anticipated”

[fjlip]

"take a crop tour around province in July-August. You should have a good idea whether the stats are right."
From the truck this area had a hell of a crop canopy/stand, thick, tall, but one had to do pod/seed counts and seed size measures to estimate yield. The heat in last 2-3 weeks shriveled seeds and 10-20% evaporated, literally into thin air. It's not easy. And backyarditus happens when YOUR spot is uniquely hooped by weather. 10 miles N of us way more subsoil and SAME crop look, from the road, yielded 5- 10 bu more. All is a BIG guess/estimate. The ones with the GOLD want the masses dumbed down. And it will get worse.

[ajl]

Worst part of this is now talk of $20 canola will get the inputs side on fire while most average season pricing will be in the $12 range. It will also drive a short crop with long tail problem which will make market difficult this fall. Around here, canola acreage will be up substantially and conditions as of now are 10/10. We have been getting lite snow all week so far and are not that dry to begin with. Many canola fields were summer fallow this past season so I expect close to 50% canola this summer.

[blackpowder]

Keep up the reporting everyone.
Never pay an advisor. Hire information providers.
Any advisor right more than half the time wouldn't waste his time telling anyone. He'd be rich.

[malleefarmer]

Love em or hate em the whole grain complex has got China to thank unless you live here of course.

Fact can’t deny it, they almost “control” the markets at present.

[SASKFARMER]

We will be out of canola by July did sell some off combine like always do then started basis in end of December into early Jan. Now have a may and July.

Everyone should take a crop tour and explore Saskatchewan in the summer with your wife or partner or kids.

It’s fun and stop and smell the canola

[burnt]

Atleast there shouldn't be those carry over b.s. numbers at end of crop yr.

Let's hear ALL SOLD OUT..

CORN:
China has been reported to have purchased 1.6 million tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery in this marketing year. It is now the fifth time since 1994 that China has exceeded 1 million tonnes in a single day. In the USDA’s recent weekly Export Sales report, exports and undelivered sales of U.S. corn to China for delivery in the 2020-2021 marketing year total 11.8 million tonnes. China has also been reported to have purchased 200 million gallons of U.S. ethanol for shipment in the first half of this year. Futures markets have responded to this recent news by posting a 2-week high.

SOYBEANS:
Brazilian soybean harvest sits at 1 per cent complete as of last week compared to over 4 per cent last year. Recent rains have delayed early bean harvest. However later maturing beans should benefit from this moisture. The slow harvest pace in Brazil has supported soybean futures values.
U.S. crush plants have been booking soybean purchases well beyond their normal supply due to rising export demand and rising prices. There are fears of soybean shortages later this marketing year. Some crush plants have booked their soybean needs for the next 60 days rather than just their usual 30 to 40 days. U.S. soybean supplies are forecast to reach a seven -year low by the end of the marketing year, even with a large harvested crop, due to record U.S. crush and exports this year.

WHEAT:
Argentina is working to ensure ample domestic wheat supplies. They are the 7th largest wheat exporting country, with the majority of exports going to neighbouring Brazil. Of the 17.2 million tonnes of wheat harvested this year, 10 million tonnes will likely be exported. To date, official data indicated that exporters have purchased 8.9 million tonnes. Argentina may limit exports in an effort to slow increases in domestic food prices.
Australia is expected to harvest 31 million tonnes of wheat this year. This figure is more than twice the amount harvested last year as drought limited production to an estimated 15 million. A grain handler in the New South Wales region is reported to have deliveries of 8.4 million tonnes so far this year compared to 500,000 tonnes last year at this time.

Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario

[TechAnalyst]

Something to consider:
If other countries have reporting (usually the US is mentioned), why are there farmers in those countries lamenting that they sold too much grain too soon?

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

A market is for price discovery. As more information becomes available prices adjust.
And never forget that part of the market functions on pure emotion. Humans still make the decisions

This is likely the most important post I've seen here yet, it's worth reading again.

When marketing grain you have to accept you're always going to be wrong. If prices go up you sold too much. If prices go down you didn't sell enough. The sooner one embraces that the better.

Then you break up sales into small enough increments so you can still be satisfied with the final outcome.

I layed out the potential for this move 13 months ago but would Never have suggested to avoid any sales until these prices.

That said, there is still no excuse for the lack of reporting.

It would have been hard to predict how aggressive China would have been with purchases (from the US) but it certainly helps to have it reported so one knows as its developing.

[SASKFARMER]

If NA and Europe have production problems. Yes were all dry in this together. Then Lookout the prices locked in for fall will be not even close to what the world will have to pay.