The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[jazz]

Good comments , but , if you look at the past 5 years harvest prices were as good as holding if you factor in the extra cost of storage, augers etc .

I treat storage as a sunk cost, sort of like your combine sitting in the shed all winter. We have enough on our farm to hold an entire yr and its all be paid for 10 yrs ago.

Growing up dad never sold a bushel off the combine cause he had other income to to hold him over until the new year. I remember him selling old crop last few days in July on the old PROs because they would always be lower for August. Maybe that where my marketing strategy came from.

Note we arent looking for big gains from this but typically you can get 50-75c a bushel on most crops pretty easy. Makes a difference on our place.

[farming101]

There is no market exchange in Canada for any grain and the market we use from the US exchanges is or has been distorted by 100 billion in direct payments to farms.

In reality Canada should be the price setter with an exchange for flax, lentils, peas, durum canola....

In the words of George Bush.....knot gonna happen.

The Winnipeg exchange did have contracts at one time or another for all the grains you listed except lentils.
But after generations of having marketing done by others there was only a very few who thought forward contracts on an exchange traded in Canadian dollars with specifications useful to Canadian farmers were needed. It really is a pity.
Sure exchanges can be manipulated, but the more they are used the better they work.
It's amazing there is still a canola exchange

[jazz]

That Gamestop is an eye opener

2 funds were trying to manipulate on shorts and pulled out yesterday reportedly down 5 billion

Got in a war with a bunch of small day traders on Reddit.

Stock has no real value but the 5 billion changed hands.

And thats why you dont try to short tesla or apple etc. There is a cult behind them. You can see them lining up around the blocks to get new iphone that does the same thing as the last one, or preordering a car that might be delivered in a year.

[bucket]

The Winnipeg exchange did have contracts at one time or another for all the grains you listed except lentils.
But after generations of having marketing done by others there was only a very few who thought forward contracts on an exchange traded in Canadian dollars with specifications useful to Canadian farmers were needed. It really is a pity.
Sure exchanges can be manipulated, but the more they are used the better they work.
It's amazing there is still a canola exchange

This is another highlight in Gerry Ritz's incompetence...the markets couldn't work in Canada with the CWB and they were not effectively taken up by farmers because of lack of experience and skepticism when the market opened in 2012...

That and in order for the markets to operate effectively , farmers had to be involved....they couldn't. Why....

Because they didn't know WTF was going on without some information from industry in the form of accurate and timely reporting...

IMHO...the markets in Canada closed because farmers could only use their area farms to determine what to do and that wasn't good enough when your are an exporting nation...you have to have some information based on what the country is doing as a whole not just in the backyard to make market decisions...

[Rareearth]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I would like sales reporting, but I would like info or comments on why it could be harmful to farmer interests?

The currents usa stock market squeeze with game stop, black berry and AMC , are the type of manipulation that grain companies play. Farmers aren’t organized enough to defend themselves.

[farming101]

This is another highlight in Gerry Ritz's incompetence...the markets couldn't work in Canada with the CWB and they were not effectively taken up by farmers because of lack of experience and skepticism when the market opened in 2012...

That and in order for the markets to operate effectively , farmers had to be involved....they couldn't. Why....

Because they didn't know WTF was going on without some information from industry in the form of accurate and timely reporting...

IMHO...the markets in Canada closed because farmers could only use their area farms to determine what to do and that wasn't good enough when your are an exporting nation...you have to have some information based on what the country is doing as a whole not just in the backyard to make market decisions...

The bad timing and lack of experience and training was too much for producers all at once.
I do think the grainco's are at fault too. This is seen in the way it all started with the great year of 2012 for easy marketing and shipping and the Great Canadian Grain Disaster that was 2013. Inexperience and lack of coordination.
It is my own impression but I think the grainco's did not do near enough to use the new exchange. It'll never work if merchants don't use it

[shtferbrains]

Imho a lot of that money is coming from small novice investors from shithole countries that have kickback income to hide.
The want to invest in NY exchange. Tesla and Apple are recognizable and always go up.
No brainer.

Stocks always go up.

[shtferbrains]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I would like sales reporting, but I would like info or comments on why it could be harmful to farmer interests?

The currents usa stock market squeeze with game stop, black berry and AMC , are the type of manipulation that grain companies play. Farmers aren’t organized enough to defend themselves.

Actualy that is the little guy roasting the manipulators.
The ICE canola market is so thin a group like WSB could easily bounce it around if it caught thier attention and the traders couldn't control it.

They took 5 billion on the manipulators. How much canola is that?

[jazz]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I dont know exactly whats best, but I feel the more information that is gleaned from this industry just empowers those on the other side and not us.

I look at a service like Farmers Edge. Collecting all that data, scouting fields supposedly help us optimize yields but it really is a tool to feed data to markets eventually IMHO. Combine yield monitors feeding data etc.

If this year proved anything the powers that be cannot properly estimate a crop in the field even with their scouts. There isnt enough manpower to check fields every week and report. So they are relying on us and technology to make up the difference and even that has proven difficult. Sat photos cant do it either and although Klaus thinks they can tell if we have bins full or not from heat maps, I doubt they can tell what type of grain is in those bins and I think a little -40C aeration might be able to hide that too.

A few yrs ago I applied for a cash advance and CCGA came out and verified those bushels by hand. That was about 5 yrs ago. I didnt like that but I can see what they are doing.

I look at it this way. If USDA and Statscan can revise their production data every few months, then so can I.

[Rareearth]

Or Jazz
Did the market and exporters see the collective yield monitors, and then determined it was a buy opportunity, much lower yields than anticipated or reported ( buy as much as they can, China, Canadian exporters etc) catching the supply side of the market with its pants down. They had a 30 to 90 day market advantage in the information/internet world, that is a long time compared to milliseconds

[Rareearth]

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a how to, (maybe by canola growers Assn) “How to deliver, step by step guide for delivery against futures, where, how, who, costs etc”.

That is part of the solution, but reporting is the huge missing piece of info.

Or do they d
Just serve the marketing, and agronomics pieces, leaving out price discovery?

[furrowtickler]

Very good thread here
Good discussions , and there is a reason why .
Informative from all sides here.