The Great Grain Robbery part 2

[bucket]

Something to consider:
If other countries have reporting (usually the US is mentioned), why are there farmers in those countries lamenting that they sold too much grain too soon?

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

A market is for price discovery. As more information becomes available prices adjust.
And never forget that part of the market functions on pure emotion. Humans still make the decisions

There is no market exchange in Canada for any grain and the market we use from the US exchanges is or has been distorted by 100 billion in direct payments to farms.

In reality Canada should be the price setter with an exchange for flax, lentils, peas, durum canola....

In the words of George Bush.....knot gonna happen.

[jazz]

Just how should a properly functioning market work? Would it work well if every farmer held back from selling anything until the price was uber high and then sell it all in one day? In my mind that is almost the furthest thing from a properly functioning market.

101, I agree, but until the otherside, the holders of paper are reigned in, farmers do not have price discovery so they resort to the only thing they know, hiding it.

Look what happened to gamestop this week and probably tesla as well. One side is shorting it hard and the cult is pushing back on it. Nobody has any idea what the true value of these companies are because of the manipulation.

Same thing when buying stocks with target or stops or putting in targets on crop prices. Those just expose your hand and you end up paying more or getting less or getting stopped out. The little fit in the canola market for a few days was a prime example of a shakeout that probably caught some people again.

Personally, I dont want sale reported better because that would just become a USDA type report that would hurt us more than help.

[bucket]

101, I agree, but until the otherside, the holders of paper are reigned in, farmers do not have price discovery so they resort to the only thing they know, hiding it.

Look what happened to gamestop this week and probably tesla as well. One side is shorting it hard and the cult is pushing back on it. Nobody has any idea what the true value of these companies are because of the manipulation.

Same thing when buying stocks with target or stops or putting in targets on crop prices. Those just expose your hand and you end up paying more or getting less or getting stopped out. The little fit in the canola market for a few days was a prime example of a shakeout that probably caught some people again.

Personally, I dont want sale reported better because that would just become a USDA type report that would hurt us more than help.

Interesting comments Jazz

Let me ask this question and its not to be argumentative ...

If the USDA is wrong on a report , isn't it the market's responsibility to correct it?

So at the very least the USDA may , by design, inaccurately report for whatever reason but the market is suppose to clear that muddy water...

Now in Canada you have neither a timely report or a functioning market because Canadian farmers are priced off a muddied US market by direct payments....

Devil's advocate thinking.

[jazz]

There are little things in our grain markets that should help producers and again I hold fast on my guideline to not sell until Q2 to Q3 following harvest.

The reason being most ag lands are in northern hemisphere, so all the crop is coming off at the same time. Russia and FSU are our major competitors at that time and they are typically dumpers, getting rid of most of their supply before xmas.

US has a hard time storing mega corn and soy bushels on farms thats why they haul it straight in off the combine and they want to get on the Miss in case there are problems over the winter or in the spring.

Pulses are going to India and associated countries and they target their religious festivals with supply. They often prebuy so they have enough on had for those times.

So usually Canada looks attractive in the spring. And shipping on the St lawrence opens back up.

Also there is usually a lot of uncertainty during seeding. Usually someplace has too much moisture and others have not enough, then it all kind of straightens out in June.

[bucket]

There are little things in our grain markets that should help producers and again I hold fast on my guideline to not sell until Q2 to Q3 following harvest.

The reason being most ag lands are in northern hemisphere, so all the crop is coming off at the same time. Russia and FSU are our major competitors at that time and they are typically dumpers, getting rid of most of their supply before xmas.

US has a hard time storing mega corn and soy bushels on farms thats why they haul it straight in off the combine and they want to get on the Miss in case there are problems over the winter or in the spring.

Pulses are going to India and associated countries and they target their religious festivals with supply. They often prebuy so they have enough on had for those times.

So usually Canada looks attractive in the spring. And shipping on the St lawrence opens back up.

Also there is usually a lot of uncertainty during seeding. Usually someplace has too much moisture and others have not enough, then it all kind of straightens out in June.

Good comments , but , if you look at the past 5 years harvest prices were as good as holding if you factor in the extra cost of storage, augers etc .

2020 has been what most years should do, to an extreme, where the prices rise as inventories become more defined.

Although 2020 will be one for the record books. I wouldn't think every year will work out like this...

If the drought takes hold though....all bets are off. No pricing yet and with a hot summer predicted for 2021 with a cool spring prior to that.....its a crap shoot...and I am leaving the seeding options open...no definitive seeding plans yet...everyone says wheat is a sleeper ...cant make that decision to seed it in July so maybe they will start buying acres soon.

[shtferbrains]

That Gamestop is an eye opener

2 funds were trying to manipulate on shorts and pulled out yesterday reportedly down 5 billion

Got in a war with a bunch of small day traders on Reddit.

Stock has no real value but the 5 billion changed hands.

Couldn't happen but for social media.

It's a new world.

[jazz]

Good comments , but , if you look at the past 5 years harvest prices were as good as holding if you factor in the extra cost of storage, augers etc .

I treat storage as a sunk cost, sort of like your combine sitting in the shed all winter. We have enough on our farm to hold an entire yr and its all be paid for 10 yrs ago.

Growing up dad never sold a bushel off the combine cause he had other income to to hold him over until the new year. I remember him selling old crop last few days in July on the old PROs because they would always be lower for August. Maybe that where my marketing strategy came from.

Note we arent looking for big gains from this but typically you can get 50-75c a bushel on most crops pretty easy. Makes a difference on our place.

[farming101]

There is no market exchange in Canada for any grain and the market we use from the US exchanges is or has been distorted by 100 billion in direct payments to farms.

In reality Canada should be the price setter with an exchange for flax, lentils, peas, durum canola....

In the words of George Bush.....knot gonna happen.

The Winnipeg exchange did have contracts at one time or another for all the grains you listed except lentils.
But after generations of having marketing done by others there was only a very few who thought forward contracts on an exchange traded in Canadian dollars with specifications useful to Canadian farmers were needed. It really is a pity.
Sure exchanges can be manipulated, but the more they are used the better they work.
It's amazing there is still a canola exchange

[jazz]

That Gamestop is an eye opener

2 funds were trying to manipulate on shorts and pulled out yesterday reportedly down 5 billion

Got in a war with a bunch of small day traders on Reddit.

Stock has no real value but the 5 billion changed hands.

And thats why you dont try to short tesla or apple etc. There is a cult behind them. You can see them lining up around the blocks to get new iphone that does the same thing as the last one, or preordering a car that might be delivered in a year.

[bucket]

The Winnipeg exchange did have contracts at one time or another for all the grains you listed except lentils.
But after generations of having marketing done by others there was only a very few who thought forward contracts on an exchange traded in Canadian dollars with specifications useful to Canadian farmers were needed. It really is a pity.
Sure exchanges can be manipulated, but the more they are used the better they work.
It's amazing there is still a canola exchange

This is another highlight in Gerry Ritz's incompetence...the markets couldn't work in Canada with the CWB and they were not effectively taken up by farmers because of lack of experience and skepticism when the market opened in 2012...

That and in order for the markets to operate effectively , farmers had to be involved....they couldn't. Why....

Because they didn't know WTF was going on without some information from industry in the form of accurate and timely reporting...

IMHO...the markets in Canada closed because farmers could only use their area farms to determine what to do and that wasn't good enough when your are an exporting nation...you have to have some information based on what the country is doing as a whole not just in the backyard to make market decisions...

[Rareearth]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I would like sales reporting, but I would like info or comments on why it could be harmful to farmer interests?

The currents usa stock market squeeze with game stop, black berry and AMC , are the type of manipulation that grain companies play. Farmers aren’t organized enough to defend themselves.

[farming101]

This is another highlight in Gerry Ritz's incompetence...the markets couldn't work in Canada with the CWB and they were not effectively taken up by farmers because of lack of experience and skepticism when the market opened in 2012...

That and in order for the markets to operate effectively , farmers had to be involved....they couldn't. Why....

Because they didn't know WTF was going on without some information from industry in the form of accurate and timely reporting...

IMHO...the markets in Canada closed because farmers could only use their area farms to determine what to do and that wasn't good enough when your are an exporting nation...you have to have some information based on what the country is doing as a whole not just in the backyard to make market decisions...

The bad timing and lack of experience and training was too much for producers all at once.
I do think the grainco's are at fault too. This is seen in the way it all started with the great year of 2012 for easy marketing and shipping and the Great Canadian Grain Disaster that was 2013. Inexperience and lack of coordination.
It is my own impression but I think the grainco's did not do near enough to use the new exchange. It'll never work if merchants don't use it

[shtferbrains]

Imho a lot of that money is coming from small novice investors from shithole countries that have kickback income to hide.
The want to invest in NY exchange. Tesla and Apple are recognizable and always go up.
No brainer.

Stocks always go up.

[shtferbrains]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I would like sales reporting, but I would like info or comments on why it could be harmful to farmer interests?

The currents usa stock market squeeze with game stop, black berry and AMC , are the type of manipulation that grain companies play. Farmers aren’t organized enough to defend themselves.

Actualy that is the little guy roasting the manipulators.
The ICE canola market is so thin a group like WSB could easily bounce it around if it caught thier attention and the traders couldn't control it.

They took 5 billion on the manipulators. How much canola is that?

[jazz]

And thanks Jazz, that’s the first negative comment on why sales should not be reported that I’ve heard.

I dont know exactly whats best, but I feel the more information that is gleaned from this industry just empowers those on the other side and not us.

I look at a service like Farmers Edge. Collecting all that data, scouting fields supposedly help us optimize yields but it really is a tool to feed data to markets eventually IMHO. Combine yield monitors feeding data etc.

If this year proved anything the powers that be cannot properly estimate a crop in the field even with their scouts. There isnt enough manpower to check fields every week and report. So they are relying on us and technology to make up the difference and even that has proven difficult. Sat photos cant do it either and although Klaus thinks they can tell if we have bins full or not from heat maps, I doubt they can tell what type of grain is in those bins and I think a little -40C aeration might be able to hide that too.

A few yrs ago I applied for a cash advance and CCGA came out and verified those bushels by hand. That was about 5 yrs ago. I didnt like that but I can see what they are doing.

I look at it this way. If USDA and Statscan can revise their production data every few months, then so can I.