When China Stops Buying . . . .

[errolanderson]

Quote from Successful Farmer magazine (usa)

The current stock-to-usage figure (expected leftover supply at the end of the marketing year divided by usage) is near 3%. Historically, this low of a percentage suggests soybean prices above $15. Currently, soybeans are trading under $14 with continued strong weekly export sales.

Projected carryout is currently 140 million bushels, and some are debating it to be near 100 million. Is the U.S. on the verge of running out of inventory? At some point, one may question the U.S. exporting additional inventory when domestic supplies could become critically tight for our nation’s own food security.

Agresource stateside is also suggesting $15 beans . . . . but the longer soy can’t test fresh highs, the odds drop. Rule of thumb (trader voodoo), 10 trading sessions without new highs tested suggest top is in.

[Rareearth]

Thanks Errol, good analogy or saying to remind us of risk.

Another quote from the article,
“As supplies tighten, volatility increases. Volatility provides opportunity, yet volatility also suggests risk. For producers, the opportunity comes in the form of higher prices. When analyzing the soybean market, one must wonder if the market has yet done its job to ration inventory.”

The USA has a reporting system for sales, Canada does not. Farmers in this type of market have a unprecedented disadvantage to understand this risks, and possible opportunities.

[GDR]

What's gonna happen if China starts flexing its muscle in Taiwan. Getting a bit tense over there. I can't imagine the west would just sit by and watch but if we get involved might be a big game changer.

[errolanderson]

What's gonna happen if China starts flexing its muscle in Taiwan. Getting a bit tense over there. I can't imagine the west would just sit by and watch but if we get involved might be a big game changer.

Good point, it can change trade patterns quickly, if this situation continues to heat.

[burnt]

What's gonna happen if China starts flexing its muscle in Taiwan. Getting a bit tense over there. I can't imagine the west would just sit by and watch but if we get involved might be a big game changer.

Not sure why you think the west wouldn't sit by and watch. With the world's super power being Beijing friendly now, n all?

[errolanderson]

Just a heads-up . . . .

Despite CME corn futures testing contract highs on Monday, China Dalian futures now in-decline off about 70 cents/bu in the past two weeks. Big drop in palm oil overnight, down 5%. India apparently hiking import taxes.

For rally to hold, demand must hold.

[bucket]

Reuters reports China has bought a million tonnes of Canada 2021 new crop barley....interesting...and what Canadian market exchange would reflect those sales????????????????????????????

[farming101]

Just a heads-up . . . .

Despite CME corn futures testing contract highs on Monday, China Dalian futures now in-decline off about 70 cents/bu in the past two weeks. Big drop in palm oil overnight, down 5%. India apparently hiking import taxes.

For rally to hold, demand must hold.

Dalian July corn contract still close to $11 US. Talk of more low tariff imports into China. So far I am treating it as a correction....Spot corn in China high as ever. Perhaps there is a ceiling, but it's a real high one.
The Jan 13 China wheat auction saw prices fly higher and everything offered, 4MMT, was bought. The stocks were bought back at prices higher than the support price. Wheat will be aggressively bought till there is equilibrium between wheat and corn prices.

[jazz]

Dalian July corn contract still close to $11 US. Talk of more low tariff imports into China. So far I am treating it as a correction....Spot corn in China high as ever. Perhaps there is a ceiling, but it's a real high one.
The Jan 13 China wheat auction saw prices fly higher and everything offered, 4MMT, was bought. The stocks were bought back at prices higher than the support price. Wheat will be aggressively bought till there is equilibrium between wheat and corn prices.

Sounds like china is prepping for a possible trade embargo after military action.

Too bad sleepy Joe is probably polishing his dentures instead of paying attention.

I would be surprised if US intervenes in Taiwan. They will let china take it.