The Death of Inflation

[ajl]

Absolutely, look at this cluster-*** insolvency, banks are/were just handing money out with very little regard to profitability. I guess the shine wears off every OYF eventually.

https://www.bowragroup.com/kalcofarms

Farming has been pretty nasty in this area for the past 5-6 years. Used to be one counted on 50-60 bu canola routinely but the average has likely slipped under 40 from the past five years due to ongoing poor weather. (That is why canola is $16) There has been a lot of unseeded acres, drying costs and spring harvests ongoing in this area and these guys were farming a lot of rented land as I only counted 10.5 quarters on the asset list. A lot of land was bought by speculators in the industrial heartland around Ft Saskatchewan and that was a lot of their land base, Rented land has not been profitable for years but some of it is now after the price rally if you did not have to sell last fall to catch up on rent payments.

[Richard5]

Absolutely, look at this cluster-*** insolvency, banks are/were just handing money out with very little regard to profitability. I guess the shine wears off every OYF eventually.

https://www.bowragroup.com/kalcofarms

I can't say if I am laughing or not but it is truly funny that this is the farm that makes the cover of every Ag publication. Twitter account probably even a website that say how they "grow food to feed the world". All fake and show, absolutely disgusts me.

[helmsdale]

I can't say if I am laughing or not but it is truly funny that this is the farm that makes the cover of every Ag publication. Twitter account probably even a website that say how they "grow food to feed the world". All fake and show, absolutely disgusts me.

Being a 2013 OYF alumni they really bought into the mantra. Their website has ALL the catch phrases.

Heavy emphasis on:
-scale
-efficient
-innovative
-sustainable
-technology
-education
-networking
-"partnering for growth"

-" We are constantly searching for opportunities to partner with others through innovative relationships or investments."

Each to their own...

[Guest]

and "lean management"

[Ab7]

and "lean management"

Those interest rates seem pretty steep

[blackpowder]

I can't say if having a positive attitude is a bad thing.
But it is when you don't learn from being kicked in the gonads or are kicked too late.
It can become a dangerous bias.

[errolanderson]

Fed Chair Powell stated this morning . . . "Economic reopening cause inflation to pick up temporarily"

These few, simple words have created quite a knee-jerk reaction and equities and commodities. Stock investors appear running for the exit door once again on just-the-thought of rising bond yields.

Metals are getting crushed, which is not a sign-of-inflationary risk (IMO). Copper after soaring to near decade highs recently is now getting hammered. Gold prices are breaking below $1,700 per oz. Silver is in a dive. This reaction suggests the case for inflation is weak at-best. Deflation may again be licking on the doorstep (IMO) and the greatest fear of the central banker.

Moral of any market story . . . when everyone is on one side of the ship, it's time to be on the other side.

[errolanderson]

Errol I challenge you to find someone in North America that has experienced deflation throughout their lifetime.
Things do correct but overall have always inflated over time.

Talk to any cattle feeder . . . .

[errolanderson]

Markets could be a hair-trigger away from potential mass asset deflation (IMO) . . . .

The recipe mix is a break in the stock market held-up by overly-abused central bank money printing (stimulus) and overly-abused free money policies. Investors know valuations are excessive, but that has been little concern as the Fed has-their-back. But any hint of rate hikes and/or ideas the Fed has actually lost control of the bond market will have an immediate impact . . . Equities appear already experiencing symptoms. The NASDAQ has turned negative for the year . . . today.

Should equities break, commodities are also exposed due to global credit risks. Money printing doesn't solve credit risks. Also, central bank intervention is very long-in-the-tooth and may not be enough to rite-a-sinking-ship the next time around (IMO). Velocity-of-money has slowed considerably . . . translation: money printing is having less and less of an impact holding the market glue together.

My opinion: this begs of potential incoming deflationary risks that could surprise investors and impact markets quickly. Realize, central banks rely on inflation and inflation talk, but those days are over (IMO).

My opinion . . . realize that many Agrivillers do not agree.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I for one agree with you Errol. I just can't figure out how to profit from this information. Without a timeline, how does one put this to use? Waiting for the inevitable deflationary event would have put an investor on the wrong side of history for as long as I have been hearing about it.

And when it does occur, it will be so spectacular, wide ranging and swift, that I'm not sure we even could prepare for it.