Sales reporting

[Rareearth]

Brazil has sales reporting.

“Brazil 21/22 Soybean Sales Well Ahead of Average: The sale of the 2021/22 soybean crop, which will only be planted in September, reached 18.69% of the expected production in Mato Grosso, well above the historical average of 2.64 % for this time of year, data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) showed on Monday. In the same period last season, sales of oilseed in the largest producing state in the country were 13.21%, according to the institute. For the current harvest, sales reached 71.76% of expected production, compared to 67.95% in the same period of 2019/20 and a historical average of 57.86%. However, the accelerated pace of sales clashes with a strong delay in the harvest, which may move part of the demand to competitors if problems of delivery of the grain arise this month. AgRural reported yesterday that Brazil's soybean harvest advanced to 4% complete as of Feb. 4, a two-point weekly gain but still well behind 16% complete a year-ago. The slow pace is also delaying second crop corn planting, which reached 3.4% last week in the Center-South region, compared to 23% last year. (Source: Reuters, AgRural)”

[bucket]

100 000 bu forward priced for $ 10 off the combine as compared to

100 000 bu sold now for $ 15.00

$ 500 000 more in the grain cos pockets !

Sad story !

The reps phoning and saying who knew.. it's hindsight.. sign for $ 12 for this fall !

**** off they knew !

And Neil Townsend did their bidding...he should be taken to the town square and kicked in the balls.

100s of millions out of farmer's pockets on his "analysis" of crop size...had the nerve to argue provincial estimates that were based on yield monitors from a combine cab...

[sumdumguy]

Topic at hand: We Need Information - volume and sales price of exports (and an information distribution medium to disseminate). Its one thing to say, “we need this information in order to make informed marketing decisions.” BUT How do you envisage the remitting, compilation, reporting, dissemination?

#1 Who is going to make me supply the information (accurately) and who is the keeper?

#2 Who is going to report to farmers?

[bucket]

Topic at hand: We Need Information - volume and sales price of exports (and an information distribution medium to disseminate). Its one thing to say, “we need this information in order to make informed marketing decisions.” BUT How do you envisage the remitting, compilation, reporting, dissemination?

#1 Who is going to make me supply the information (accurately) and who is the keeper?

#2 Who is going to report to farmers?

While it may not be perfect...an agency similar to the USDA.

[wmoebis]

Topic at hand: We Need Information - volume and sales price of exports (and an information distribution medium to disseminate). Its one thing to say, “we need this information in order to make informed marketing decisions.” BUT How do you envisage the remitting, compilation, reporting, dissemination?

#1 Who is going to make me supply the information (accurately) and who is the keeper?

#2 Who is going to report to farmers?

Your right! Local buyers don't even report local sales and purchases. Ya they have general local bids but the real contract deals are locked behind doors. Details are in Quantity, quality and price agreement.

[Sodbuster]

And Neil Townsend did their bidding...he should be taken to the town square and kicked in the balls.

100s of millions out of farmer's pockets on his "analysis" of crop size...had the nerve to argue provincial estimates that were based on yield monitors from a combine cab...

And to think that farmers actually paid Townsend to market his misinformation.

[furrowtickler]

As an example, a farmer has 200000 bus of Canola probably is either out at 12 or has maybe 20% left.

If he knew in Fall sales were happening at such a strong amount he would hold back as long as he could.

Maybe 3/4 left to move at 16 or higher.

The cash difference is $440,000 extra in a farmer's pocket.

Just for knowing what the Grain Companies were doing.

We as farmers would spend that on STuff making the Canadian economy stronger. Now it goes to grain company profits. Most Private family companies.

Also the carry over stocks were way over 'estimated' , if the carryover stocks were as large as stated canola would be barely over $12 now and maybe starting a run , not just after the harvest flush finished. Canola was way undervalued last summer and going into harvest based on false high carry over stocks and projections of a record crop.
Leaves very little faith in market reporting from line companies and market experts.
thats a big reason why canola is now near historic highs, huge carry over was never there, sales went unreported, the 2020 canola crop was less than 'experts' claimed all bolstered by soybeans as well.
Regardless the chickens have come home to roost now .

[bucket]

Also the carry over stocks were way over 'estimated' , if the carryover stocks were as large as stated canola would be barely over $12 now and maybe starting a run , not just after the harvest flush finished. Canola was way undervalued last summer and going into harvest based on false high carry over stocks and projections of a record crop.
Leaves very little faith in market reporting from line companies and market experts.
thats a big reason why canola is now near historic highs, huge carry over was never there, sales went unreported, the 2020 canola crop was less than 'experts' claimed all bolstered by soybeans as well.
Regardless the chickens have come home to roost now .

As usual, I will add my stupid comments ....once we hit zero carryover the math becomes simple...

There is no such thing as negative canola stocks...zero is zero...if you have an agency that is honest. Whether it be the CGC or statscan.

In my estimation they have been borrowing from new crop for years to make their numbers work...can get away with fake numbers in July when the crop is only days from coming in...little tougher to do in January.

But this discussion boils down to this.....when will this be investigated by the ag committee?????

[wmoebis]

As usual, I will add my stupid comments ....once we hit zero carryover the math becomes simple...

There is no such thing as negative canola stocks...zero is zero...if you have an agency that is honest. Whether it be the CGC or statscan.

In my estimation they have been borrowing from new crop for years to make their numbers work...can get away with fake numbers in July when the crop is only days from coming in...little tougher to do in January.

But this discussion boils down to this.....when will this be investigated by the ag committee?????

When Farmers were sending people all over the world on Market Missions they weren't selling just promoting, what numbers were they using? Does it seem funny that this year when they weren't able to travel prices reacted the way they did after hearing how important that face to face with real Farmers is.

[Guest]

Also the carry over stocks were way over 'estimated' , if the carryover stocks were as large as stated canola would be barely over $12 now and maybe starting a run , not just after the harvest flush finished. Canola was way undervalued last summer and going into harvest based on false high carry over stocks and projections of a record crop.
Leaves very little faith in market reporting from line companies and market experts.
thats a big reason why canola is now near historic highs, huge carry over was never there, sales went unreported, the 2020 canola crop was less than 'experts' claimed all bolstered by soybeans as well.
Regardless the chickens have come home to roost now .

huge , huge carry over two years in a row !
huge , huge 2020 crop !!
what could possibly have gone wrong ?