U.S. Corn Futures

[CommonCents]

Can anyone share any insight into the downward movement in U.S. corn futures. Record volume in March and May contracts yesterday. March corn down 42 cents per bu. over two days. I didn't see any market moving news based on tweaking the USDA ending stocks. What am I missing?

[malleefarmer]

Twitter opinions only some suggest its china others japan

[malleefarmer]

Question over whether the US can actually ship the booked corn tonnage as well not sure ifthat means the corn tonnage aint there, shortage of ships or other physical impediments to moving it.

Guessing the cancellation was a fear we all had go back in time on a griville last two months what if what if.

If resolved market will perk up.

Worse case other cancellations

You guys are the experts im a struggling sheep guy

Edit logistics was the word i wanted

[tubs]

Or somebody to start a false rumor like what they do in the stock market

[errolanderson]

Bull markets always need to be fed . . . yesterday’s USDA report provided no fresh feed for corn bulls.

Carryover for 2020-21 is still pegged around 1.5 billion bu, but the trade was expecting a cut to about 1.3 billion.

This diappointment triggered a bearish key reversal on-the-charts signaling a possible price top. This ignited mass long liquidation by funds today. Follow-through selling tonite. Also, news of a corn export sale cancellation just made more longs run-for-cover.

Beans also exhausting, not able to make fresh contract highs. Note: Corn is king-of-the-castle in grain markets. Trend change generally means a trend change in overall grain complex.

My two-bits . . . .

[malleefarmer]

Big night on markets the wrong way four responders.

Plenty of vaccine chat.

Might join farma on holidays.

[HITTGrapevine]

Bull markets always need to be fed . . . yesterday’s USDA report provided no fresh feed for corn bulls.

Carryover for 2020-21 is still pegged around 1.5 billion bu, but the trade was expecting a cut to about 1.3 billion.

This diappointment triggered a bearish key reversal on-the-charts signaling a possible price top. This ignited mass long liquidation by funds today. Follow-through selling tonite. Also, news of a corn export sale cancellation just made more longs run-for-cover.

Beans also exhausting, not able to make fresh contract highs. Note: Corn is king-of-the-castle in grain markets. Trend change generally means a trend change in overall grain complex.

My two-bits . . . .

Feb. 10

With record corn imports forecast this month at 24.0 million tons for 2020/21, China’s demand for feedstuffs continues to rise as its swine herd recovers from African swine fever, according to the February USDA Foreign Agricultural Services Grain: World Markets and Trade report.

High corn prices are supporting record feed use of wheat and rice. Although primarily consumed as food grains, feed use of these grains is rising with increased availability of old-crop wheat and rice from auctions at prices competitive to domestic corn.

China’s 2020/21 wheat nonfood use (feed and residual) is forecast at a record 30.0 million tons, more than 10 million higher than the previous year due to record auction volumes of domestic wheat and stronger compound feed production.

High domestic corn prices have helped to drive these record auction volumes, with more than 12 million tons reported as sold in January.

Beginning in December, domestic wheat prices trended below corn for the first time in more than 6 years (based on the national monthly average spot price).

China wheat imports are raised for the sixth consecutive month to 10.0 million tons, the highest level in more than 25 years.

Although most wheat imports are allocated towards human consumption, their relatively low import prices compared to China’s domestic corn prices make wheat attractive for feed use in China’s southern region.

France has been the largest supplier for the first half of 2020/21, with landed prices averaging $270/ton, more than $160/ton lower than domestic corn and $120/ton less than domestic wheat.

This price spread continues to support stronger feed use of wheat and spur imports.

[shtferbrains]

Good post.
Source?

[HITTGrapevine]

Good post.
Source?

https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/usda-grain-world-markets-and-trade-chinas-demand-for-feedstuffs-continues-to-rise-with-record-corn-imports/

[errolanderson]

According to Tuesday's USDA report, China's corn ending stocks jumped 4.5 million MT over the past month to about 198 MMT. If accurate, this suggests China corn stocks are now down only 2% year-over-year.

But Dalian corn futures are trading nearly 50% higher year-over-year having reached all-time highs in January.

[Old Cowzilla]

Guys here already talking about cutting back corn acres soil moisture too low would need above average rainfall in spring for crop. Hog barns still running at max, extra barley acres might be needed anyway.

[HITTGrapevine]

According to Tuesday's USDA report, China's corn ending stocks jumped 4.5 million MT over the past month to about 198 MMT. If accurate, this suggests China corn stocks are now down only 2% year-over-year.

But Dalian corn futures are trading nearly 50% higher year-over-year having reached all-time highs in January.

Errol, maybe year over year stocks are down by only 2 percent. But China's consumption would presumably be way ip over the past year. And demand for feed in 2021 and beyond should be a lot higher, due to pig industry expansion and China's domestic pork use. This would imply continued market strength for NA corn and other feed grains. Last I heard, they are still in a big pissing match with Australia over 5G and are not importing much Aussie feed. Or am I missing something?

[tmyrfield]

According to Tuesday's USDA report, China's corn ending stocks jumped 4.5 million MT over the past month to about 198 MMT. If accurate, this suggests China corn stocks are now down only 2% year-over-year.

But Dalian corn futures are trading nearly 50% higher year-over-year having reached all-time highs in January.

so china reports that their corn stocks are only down 2%...the market believes them. market tanks, china cancels orders and buys at new lower price.

SMH how many times is everybody going to fall for this BS?

but i guess criticizing china is now racist or some such thing...

[farming101]

According to Tuesday's USDA report, China's corn ending stocks jumped 4.5 million MT over the past month to about 198 MMT. If accurate, this suggests China corn stocks are now down only 2% year-over-year.

But Dalian corn futures are trading nearly 50% higher year-over-year having reached all-time highs in January.

A few days earlier the FAO revised China corn stocks down by 54 MMT to 139MMT.
The difference between these two forecasts is stupid.
Meanwhile corn spot prices in China are reportedly around 14.30 CAD/Bu?

[jazz]

Looks like shakeout of the nervous and weak hands.

They wouldnt have been cleaning out the US production and forward contracting a yr out if their stocks were so plentiful.

Hold.