March Canola calls

[farming101]

This is for the most part playing out in the nearby month. It is not really making for higher cash prices on immediate new sales.
For cash canola off the farm the action is in the future summer months. Prices have gone from offering a premium for immediate deliver to a discount of as much as a dollar a bushel at some crush plant points.

[farming101]

First thing first, need a weekly close, preferably on close Monday, assuming we still trade even though holiday in US, over 725, i show no resistance till 775, 787 and finally 810. These numbers are derived from the low points similar to fibonacci but include an adjustment factor, last i looked, presently 719

ICE canola closed Monday Feb 15

[farming101]

Around Jan 12 the crush margin for the March took a nose dive. It did recover some but has dropped again big time today. Cash prices for Jan/Feb/Mar have not kept up. Basis is as much as 59 under Mar for Feb delivery

[farming101]

All time high for the March continuous tied at 10:30 this morning 744.50 (March 3, 2008)

[farming101]

New record made 746.50 @ 11:28
All time high 749.50 @ 12:00

[Oliver88]

New record made 746.50 @ 11:28
All time high 749.50 @ 12:00

Time to sell some more I think.

[farming101]

I don't see how a guy could lose.

May, July, November and January continuous contracts have not made new record highs.

As noted the March contract has some work to do to get all the contracts offset. I will enjoy seeing how this all plays out...

[shtferbrains]

I don't umderstand options at this stage.
Keep us up please.

[Sodbuster]

I banking on the March closing to boost May futures and the inverse continuing.

[farming101]

It likely will but not to the extent one might think.
May volumes have been lower than many of the past years.
Much of the commercial trade is looking further out than May.
Total volumes might be indicating there is less business to conduct going forward too.
The market will be thinner, and likely more volatile.
As of Feb 9 the spec trade was net long 43967 contracts.

[farming101]

Modern day high in any month of 769.90 tied this morning in the March contract

[farming101]

new high!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

new high!!!!!!

The Trend
Is your Friend
Till in the End
It will Bend!

From RFD TV!

[Guest]

Question for 101 , others ?
Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
Forgive me , I am really bad at this
Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ?

[farming101]

Question for 101 , others ?
Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
Forgive me , I am really bad at this
Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ?

Check your contract for deadlines to price out.

You want to picture what a decrease in the value spread between May and July might look like.

Also, realize the spread/inverse could be maintained but price for both could go up or down in lock step.
If it goes down then of course your returns at the time you fix the futures component will be lower.

At the price we have now, as I said above, I don't think a guy can make a bad decision.

Your question indicated that you were hoping July futures may rise to meet May values. I don't know. However, I am thinking we may see maximum volatility in the March with less volatility for May and less again for July. July could still appreciate in value meaning higher returns for your contract but I think the May is more likely going to fade to meet July. There could be fireworks in the July but I think it will be past the deadline to price out.
So, focus on the July not this crazy inverse. Also, new crop will be growing by then. crop conditions might have something to say about price direction by then.
Just my thoughts, I could be wrong, you know best for your farm.