March Canola calls

[farming101]

It likely will but not to the extent one might think.
May volumes have been lower than many of the past years.
Much of the commercial trade is looking further out than May.
Total volumes might be indicating there is less business to conduct going forward too.
The market will be thinner, and likely more volatile.
As of Feb 9 the spec trade was net long 43967 contracts.

[farming101]

Modern day high in any month of 769.90 tied this morning in the March contract

[farming101]

new high!!!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

new high!!!!!!

The Trend
Is your Friend
Till in the End
It will Bend!

From RFD TV!

[Guest]

Question for 101 , others ?
Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
Forgive me , I am really bad at this
Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ?

[farming101]

Question for 101 , others ?
Have a little nexera with June /July basis attached over July
Forgive me , I am really bad at this
Right now July futures about $.75 /bu less than may
If a fellow waits , do you think the inversion will decrease ?

Check your contract for deadlines to price out.

You want to picture what a decrease in the value spread between May and July might look like.

Also, realize the spread/inverse could be maintained but price for both could go up or down in lock step.
If it goes down then of course your returns at the time you fix the futures component will be lower.

At the price we have now, as I said above, I don't think a guy can make a bad decision.

Your question indicated that you were hoping July futures may rise to meet May values. I don't know. However, I am thinking we may see maximum volatility in the March with less volatility for May and less again for July. July could still appreciate in value meaning higher returns for your contract but I think the May is more likely going to fade to meet July. There could be fireworks in the July but I think it will be past the deadline to price out.
So, focus on the July not this crazy inverse. Also, new crop will be growing by then. crop conditions might have something to say about price direction by then.
Just my thoughts, I could be wrong, you know best for your farm.

[blackpowder]

I had a few tonnes on a +$13 basis March.
I rolled some to July a while back for a +$78 basis. Capturing inverse. Some i left on the March.
Trucked all March.
I'm thinking at the end of the day July may not climb enough to beat the May.
By then end users will stand for delivery on positions of what little is left. Lessoning value of paper and maybe causing a fast fade of July relative to Sept.
Course I could be full of it too.
No brain wave on new crop yet. Time on our side i think in both Canola and wheat. Rolled my old crop wheat option spreads.
Had $.40 to the good. We'll see LoL.

[Partners]

Bunge had $17.00 July.
Filled in no time..
So are they out of the market ?
July slow down..maintenence..
Or getting enough to keep crushing?

[Robertbarlage]

[jazz]

Bunge had $17.00 July.
Filled in no time..
So are they out of the market ?
July slow down..maintenence..
Or getting enough to keep crushing?

I dont want to be holding canola over summer. Fans were on today.

[Sodbuster]

Put some some targets in for when the May futures hit
$745
$775
$798
$825
Not sure whether I’m too aggressive or not but at least I have a plan going forward instead of a moving target.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I dont want to be holding canola over summer. Fans were on today.

I was probably one of the few people pleased to get the recent cold snap. It was the first chance all winter to finally freeze all the canola bins down. Most are well below -20C top to bottom now. Good till August easily.