March Canola calls

[farming101]

This could get interesting. Or not
13,354 call options to settle yet with nearly all of them in the money. 7 days till expiry....

[Oliver88]

What is a normal amount for call options?

[macdon02]

What is a normal amount for call options?

85% expire worthless, historically.

[Oliver88]

Any ideas out there for put options for the 2021 crop?

[Flatlander]

All luck, the first time bought a call was at delivery during harvest last fall. Settled it yesterday up $3.40 per bushel. Guess I owe my rep a steak supper, it was at his suggestion after I was commiserating the spread between where I sold and what was the current price.

[errolanderson]

Any ideas out there for put options for the 2021 crop?

Actively trading January $550 puts today @ $20/MT today.

Offers $530/MT floor and with 0 par basis now heard under Jan, this put option may guard a $12/bu floor price with no production or delivery obligation. Expires around Xmas. Also, put option ownership only allows open cash market ceiling (wide-open) should futures rally on summer weather issues.

[farming101]

What is a normal amount for call options?

I am not sure about what would be normal.
But open interest is dropping fast now. If these options are in the money(it depends what was paid for them) but obviously a lot are; it could be a whole new game. Especially if some of the new longs decide to take delivery.
It could all settle out without a hiccup as long as the writers are long the underlying

[macdon02]

There's a Gann 4x sell signal setting up Sunday night ... not sure if the holiday interferes. Also noteworthy, my AI system skipped May, July. It's focused on Nov now, usually it rolls to July, not completely sure why but it didn't like anything in between.

[macdon02]

Vertical lines are timing, horizontal are resistance and support. Time over price gents. Stick with your normal sell dates unless price exceeds resistance on those dates.(In a bullish market)

[farming101]

There's a Gann 4x sell signal setting up Sunday night ... not sure if the holiday interferes. Also noteworthy, my AI system skipped May, July. It's focused on Nov now, usually it rolls to July, not completely sure why but it didn't like anything in between.

November has the most OI now?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Does anyone care to elaborate on how this could play out? If they all decide to excercise their options, they would have to take delivery, is that correct? And why would they not, when they are almost certainly in the money? What other option do they have?
That is nearly $20 million dollars in contracts at todays price at 20 tonnes per contract, that would be a market mover.
Or do I have this all backwards?

[farming101]

Does anyone care to elaborate on how this could play out? If they all decide to excercise their options, they would have to take delivery, is that correct? And why would they not, when they are almost certainly in the money? What other option do they have?
That is nearly $20 million dollars in contracts at todays price at 20 tonnes per contract, that would be a market mover.
Or do I have this all backwards?

Options expire on Feb 19. By that date options buyers that are in the money have to decide whether to offset their position, that is sell their option, or exercise their option where they go long or short the underlying contract(The other outcome is that their option is out of the money and worthless). If they exercise it does not necessarily mean that they would stand for delivery for the last trading day is March 12. They have till then to offset the futures contract they acquire. However the period between the first notice day, Feb 26 and the last trading day, March 12 can be quite interesting.
The Jan 21 contract went up $50 a tonne in the last 2 weeks

[farming101]

The other interesting thing to watch is whether or not the futures price converges as the final trading day draws nearer. The idea is that by the time the last contract is offset, the futures price should equal the street price or perhaps more accurately, what would have to be paid to trade some actual canola on that day within the contract's specified delivery zone.
Any major difference would be a discrepancy and opportunity to profit from arbitrage

[macdon02]

First thing first, need a weekly close, preferably on close Monday, assuming we still trade even though holiday in US, over 725, i show no resistance till 775, 787 and finally 810. These numbers are derived from the low points similar to fibonacci but include an adjustment factor, last i looked, presently 719

[jazz]

101, you are too sharp for me. Short term positive or negative for prices?