March Canola calls

[blackpowder]

I had a few tonnes on a +$13 basis March.
I rolled some to July a while back for a +$78 basis. Capturing inverse. Some i left on the March.
Trucked all March.
I'm thinking at the end of the day July may not climb enough to beat the May.
By then end users will stand for delivery on positions of what little is left. Lessoning value of paper and maybe causing a fast fade of July relative to Sept.
Course I could be full of it too.
No brain wave on new crop yet. Time on our side i think in both Canola and wheat. Rolled my old crop wheat option spreads.
Had $.40 to the good. We'll see LoL.

[Partners]

Bunge had $17.00 July.
Filled in no time..
So are they out of the market ?
July slow down..maintenence..
Or getting enough to keep crushing?

[Robertbarlage]

[jazz]

Bunge had $17.00 July.
Filled in no time..
So are they out of the market ?
July slow down..maintenence..
Or getting enough to keep crushing?

I dont want to be holding canola over summer. Fans were on today.

[Sodbuster]

Put some some targets in for when the May futures hit
$745
$775
$798
$825
Not sure whether I’m too aggressive or not but at least I have a plan going forward instead of a moving target.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I dont want to be holding canola over summer. Fans were on today.

I was probably one of the few people pleased to get the recent cold snap. It was the first chance all winter to finally freeze all the canola bins down. Most are well below -20C top to bottom now. Good till August easily.

[biglentil]

It is clear to me that the price rise in canola and many other commodities isn't solely based on fundamentals and speculation. Then the only explanation left is that the dollar is losing purchasing power. IMHO its the early stages of what Ludwig Von Mises calls the crack up boom. The next stage is the general realization that the dollar is losing purchasing power.

[farming101]

March contract up large again today
May and July not too shabby either...

[beaverdam]

March contract up large again today
May and July not too shabby either...

So what's the deal with MARCH ? Why the smile and shades? Did you take a MARCH basis contract?

Graincos down here have dropped MARCH weeks ago, Ceres dropped it Feb 1st !

MARCH-MAY spreads were generally running $40/t Last week at one point I think they were as narrow as $30/t,,, today nearly $60/t Are longs getting squeezed to deliver product? If so, why isn't the spot price following the nearby(even if graincos have shifted to the next month)

[farming101]

March is purely a spectator sport at this stage. If anybody is still in the March they know exactly what they are doing or are in quite a jam...
I just put up the shades emoji to show that....
Nobody is doing new business off the March

[beaverdam]

March is purely a spectator sport at this stage. If anybody is still in the March they know exactly what they are doing or are in quite a jam...
I just put up the shades emoji to show that....
Nobody is doing new business off the March

When holding a basis contract, what date would it have to be priced out/sold? Would you have till the end of the month, or do the graincos require you to take a price before the 15th of the month you're holding the basis contract? or does it depend on the company?

[farming101]

When holding a basis contract, what date would it have to be priced out/sold? Would you have till the end of the month, or do the graincos require you to take a price before the 15th of the month you're holding the basis contract? or does it depend on the company?

It would depend on what the basis contract specifies. Cargill is often the third last trading day of the month preceding the futures month.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Watching the excitement in March, and asking, how or why does this seem to spill over into the next contracts as well?

[Sodbuster]

First target hit today at $17.24, three more targets to go.

[farming101]

Watching the excitement in March, and asking, how or why does this seem to spill over into the next contracts as well?

Could have something to do with China again. Spot Palm Oil up 10% since they got back to work on the 18th
Spot R a p e seed oil up 3.7%
Bean oil futures got a boost from last weeks price action too