Originally posted by dmlfarmer
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-8c in texas ...thats gotta be a marketing topic?
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostJazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
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My opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~Last edited by macdon02; Feb 16, 2021, 01:40.
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Originally posted by macdon02 View PostMy opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~
I just hope we get at least an average crop with no frost damage . The rest will take care of itself.
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostJazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses.
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Originally posted by flea beetle View PostIsn't Russia putting another $25/ton US export tax on wheat starting march 1st? That in itself is 88 cents/bushel canadian. Not to mention the market bump that will bring.
That may be so, but if you and I already know about $25/ton US export tax, it's already been factored into the wheat price. FSU has many countries growing wheat.
Those minus temps in the USA winter wheat growing area has only bump up MGEX $0.08/bushel today.
Just my opinion, I'll be happy if I'm wrong.
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Originally posted by Austrian Economics View PostThe difference is that the cost of servicing oil wells is paid for out of the profits from the sale of the oil and gas.
Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses.
And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.Last edited by dmlfarmer; Feb 16, 2021, 09:38.
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostIf oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.
And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
Obviously TX has another lesson or 2 probably coming its way some day if a katrina level event happens again.
FF infrastructure is widely distributed and interconnected and buried in the ground to avoid as much of these risks as possible. The rural power grid in sask is 100 times more robust since the early 80s after much of it was buried. The natural gas grid has 3 days of line pack available if it ever went down.
During hurricane sandy, all the prius owners jury rigged their cars to power their homes with gasoline.
Our woke crowd and their enablers have a lot to learn about resiliency.
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