Originally posted by dmlfarmer
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostJazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
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My opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~Last edited by macdon02; Feb 16, 2021, 01:40.
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Originally posted by macdon02 View PostMy opinion and nothing more, this rally in grains has the ability to wreck operations. We are WAY PHUCKING OVERSOLD!!! The regular timing signals are being ignored for price levels. "Put a target in" this might be the absolute worst marketing advice ever pedaled. Stick to the regular sell dates that work for you, and realize we are on the doorstep of a drought, the cycle is due, it's either this year or next. The macro picture has changed as well which means this can run a lot higher then anyone expects. My next target on chi wheat is 787 and i doubt it'll stop this. $6 will be the new floor. $4 corn will be the basement moving forward. Best guess from here is we tap all time highs by seeding time, pullback, reload, and launch into July. There's no old crop left, anywhere. Brazil started this trend, and its been shifting around the world, farmers can't help but sell and way too much. Im thinking $29 wheat, $13 corn, and $33 beans. The technical lines on basically every commodity have opened up to allow at the very least a doubling in price. Im showing $40+ on canola. But that's just an anonymous poster on the internet talking. If we dip into extreme negative short term interest rates and much higher taxes, what's the incentive not to hoard commodities? Nobody is worried about missing the top rn. Im hearing 50%+ of new crop Canadian production is sold, as high as 80% on feed barley. If sub average yields happen in 21, and those sales need to be bought back, my top end targets are very realistic. This thing is loaded. A 4x move off the lows to highs in 24 months~
I just hope we get at least an average crop with no frost damage . The rest will take care of itself.
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostJazz: How is this de - icing a wind turbine blade any different than needing graders/cats to come in to plow snow to access working gas and oil wells to enable operators to do regular well checks, for service rigs to swab wells, and for dewatering trucks to haul out water? Do you also disagree with pipeline companies using helicopters/aircraft to check pipelines on a regular basis?
Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses.
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Originally posted by flea beetle View PostIsn't Russia putting another $25/ton US export tax on wheat starting march 1st? That in itself is 88 cents/bushel canadian. Not to mention the market bump that will bring.
That may be so, but if you and I already know about $25/ton US export tax, it's already been factored into the wheat price. FSU has many countries growing wheat.
Those minus temps in the USA winter wheat growing area has only bump up MGEX $0.08/bushel today.
Just my opinion, I'll be happy if I'm wrong.
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Originally posted by Austrian Economics View PostThe difference is that the cost of servicing oil wells is paid for out of the profits from the sale of the oil and gas.
Since nearly every wind installation is a chronic money loser, any additional costs such as de-icing the blades merely multiplies the losses.
And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.Last edited by dmlfarmer; Feb 16, 2021, 09:38.
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostIf oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.
And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
Obviously TX has another lesson or 2 probably coming its way some day if a katrina level event happens again.
FF infrastructure is widely distributed and interconnected and buried in the ground to avoid as much of these risks as possible. The rural power grid in sask is 100 times more robust since the early 80s after much of it was buried. The natural gas grid has 3 days of line pack available if it ever went down.
During hurricane sandy, all the prius owners jury rigged their cars to power their homes with gasoline.
Our woke crowd and their enablers have a lot to learn about resiliency.
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Originally posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View PostWhat if this predictable outcome isn't a bug, but a ( maybe even THE) feature?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2021/02/15/this-blizzard-exposes-the-perils-of-attempting-to-electrify-everything/?sh=4fbb5aad7e15 This Blizzard Exposes The Perils Of Attempting To ‘Electrify Everything’
Look at the risks that a fully electrified grid with solar and wind would be susceptible to; snow, ice, hail, hurricanes, tornados, terrorism, EMP, solar flare, computer hack etc. And zero redundancy in those events. Our energy would become 100x more fragile. This is stupid already.Last edited by jazz; Feb 16, 2021, 10:35.
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Originally posted by dmlfarmer View PostAE: If oil companies are paying all the costs as you claim, why does Alberta have 3127 orphaned wells, 3186 orphaned pipeline segments, 1553 orphaned sites etc etc (2019 figures)? Who is going to pay for the cleanup of the 100,000 inactive wells in the province. AER estimated it will take $58.65 to remediate all of the unproductive wells in the province.
And that does not include the land rental payments to farmers that oil companies have walked away from.
Yours is a classic example of the whataboutism argument.
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Saskatchewan has huge resources of uranium, let’s just build a base off nuclear then let individuals put up their windmills and solar panels if it works for them or in areas that are not handcuffed by winter climates like most rural Canadians.
Make EV’s economic in big urban centres where it makes sense to drastically reduce pollution, that’s a good thing . But ensure there is a reliable power source in place before forcing changes .
Definitely going to be big time growing pains if pushed to fast into this “green new worldâ€
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Guest
Watched a video on how the power grid works
It’s absolutely amazing and so many don’t understand it or appreciate it
How these bird mincer/Chinese panel assholes think they can stuff their excess power into whenever it’s convenient for them and the grid needs to take their little virtue signalling bullshit and pay them for it is beyond me . There is NO STORAGE !!!
Electricity that is hit and miss is a joke
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Solar activity has been dropping since it's peak during Solar Cycle #24 in Feb 2014.
Predictions have been made that Solar Cycle #25 will be a Grand Solar Minimum, with NOAA's predicted sun spot forecast. NOAA forecasting sun spots won't rise to 2014 levels till,,, the year 2024.
Get use to the cold, and crop growing problems,,, likely on going for the next 10 years.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/09/05/global-cooling-noaa-confirms-full-blown-grand-solar-minimum/ https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/09/05/global-cooling-noaa-confirms-full-blown-grand-solar-minimum/
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