Cyclical droughts don’t derail

[LEP]

Cyclical, no backyard conditions factored in, 2022 "should" be it. This would be a North American event. There's half cycles involved, it's not as simple as saying it's every 8.6 years. It works based on fractions. So take 8.6 x 1.5 = 12.9 ~. Then you have bigger cycles going back to 1901 and 1961 a 60 yr event. Current market conditions are tracking 1961 to a T. So the 60 yr is 8.6 x 7. Obviously you can get a winter drought that misses the growing season, most don't recognize it as happening. In 2002 we had 2" in the spring and nothing till August long when it froze and got 8" in a one day event. On paper it was "average" rainfall, but the crop was a disaster. Actually Sydney rainfall being excessive is a leading indicator of NA drought. I just use this stuff as a heads up as a possibility it's coming. Check off enough boxes and confidence increases on likelihood of event occurring during critical growing period.

I subscribe to Drew Lerner and the Climate newsletter. Both say there's a pretty high probability of a dry year. Both will get stronger in their opinion one way or another as we get closer to spring.

[malleefarmer]

Our growing season way different than yours Mediterranean climate.

Rains in April seeding begins late April to and may. Harvest nov dec.

Peak rain in July aug but actually get similar amounts each month about a inch with jan feb driest almost no rain falls summer.

We kinda factor in 3 dud years 1 or two bumper years rest average but mostly depends rain timing rather than amount and ever present frost issues. Hardly any frosts last year aust production 33 mill tonne.

No insurance here you fail crop wise suck it up princess.

Oddly some of the worst droughts occur after best starts to cropping season.

Lanina weather pattern albeit a moderate one means extra rain for us but opposite for northern hemisphere?

Ps thanks for no derailment of thread

[blackpowder]

I subscribe to Drew Lerner and the Climate newsletter. Both say there's a pretty high probability of a dry year. Both will get stronger in their opinion one way or another as we get closer to spring.

Of course its gonna be dry. $13 canola.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ps thanks for no derailment of thread

Droughts are getting much worse thanks to climate change which has necessitated the great reset, and removing Trump, installing Biden and Trudeau, So they had to invent the Wuhan flu, So that Bill Gates could vaccinate us all with a microchip, As a result, we are all going to have nothing and be happy while we freeze starving in the dark, thanks to 100% renewable energy all being diverted to Tesla chargers.
Did I miss anything?

[WiltonRanch]

We’re due for a dry one here. Been wet here for a long enough stretch so trend is about to flip. In the 115 years my family has been here 2002 was the only year grain wasn’t combined on this farm. It was a culmination of a drying period which started early 90’s. Trend reversed after 2002 and has gotten wetter with dryish years 2007, 2015. 2009 and 2011 were no heck but not dry as previously mentioned ones. Before this period this area has never been the most prime ground but seem to always get enough to grow a crop. What kicks us is grass packs it in on our solonetzic and calcareous fields when dry.

[seldomseen]

In my farming career 88 and 02 were the dry ones that affected yields dramatically. In both years it was the heat with lack of rain that caused the yield loss. Both falls before those dry years were dry with little sub soil moisture. 88 was a crazy hot spring with temps in the high 30's by middle June. 02 the crop looked decent until July long weekend when temps shot up into the 30's with wind for at least a week! Things really went down after that.
Haven't wanted rain since 2003 with about 18 wet years.
Last fall was really dry and other than the big snow on Nov. 9th this winter has been on the dry side.
What happens this spring is any ones guess but I am betting on dry.

[malleefarmer]

Thread still on top all good.
2019 267 mm rain 220 mm in GS
2020 341mm smack on average 285mm GS

19 best ever barley on less rain. 20 below average barley.

19 wheat canola below average 20 above average

Legumes 19 shizenhausen 20 record.

Weird barley performed well in 19 on stuff all rain but poor this year

[sumdumguy]

The even years during the Eighties were brutal starting 1980. There were a lot of lessons learned as in no fall working fields. We almost always got enough rain to start the crop but if we didn’t get June/July rains it was tough. Grasshoppers and hail storms were a scourge.

[Old Cowzilla]

Ya I wish I had my air drill in the 80's that I have now it would have made a difference. I know its dry cause my neighbor who ( blackens everything ) parked his tillage this fall. Right now in this area you can drive through any field with an extended 2 wheel drive 1/2 ton with bald tires and not get stuck.

[burnt]

Droughts are getting much worse thanks to climate change which has necessitated the great reset, and removing Trump, installing Biden and Trudeau, So they had to invent the Wuhan flu, So that Bill Gates could vaccinate us all with a microchip, As a result, we are all going to have nothing and be happy while we freeze starving in the dark, thanks to 100% renewable energy all being diverted to Tesla chargers.
Did I miss anything?

Yes.

Yes, you missed at least two things.

But i don't want to be the one to derail this thread.

Good work, guys!!

We are fortunate here in the lea of Lake Huron. It brings us a more moderate type of weather and drought is usually very localized.

Southern Ontario has a wide reputation and being one of the most reliable crop-growing places in the world.

But the stability gets factored into the land values and rent, which are now $20Gs+ per acre and $300+/ac. Some areas hitting 30G. Insanity.

So, there are factors other than drought that make it interesting here.