Cyclical droughts don’t derail

[WiltonRanch]

We’re due for a dry one here. Been wet here for a long enough stretch so trend is about to flip. In the 115 years my family has been here 2002 was the only year grain wasn’t combined on this farm. It was a culmination of a drying period which started early 90’s. Trend reversed after 2002 and has gotten wetter with dryish years 2007, 2015. 2009 and 2011 were no heck but not dry as previously mentioned ones. Before this period this area has never been the most prime ground but seem to always get enough to grow a crop. What kicks us is grass packs it in on our solonetzic and calcareous fields when dry.

[seldomseen]

In my farming career 88 and 02 were the dry ones that affected yields dramatically. In both years it was the heat with lack of rain that caused the yield loss. Both falls before those dry years were dry with little sub soil moisture. 88 was a crazy hot spring with temps in the high 30's by middle June. 02 the crop looked decent until July long weekend when temps shot up into the 30's with wind for at least a week! Things really went down after that.
Haven't wanted rain since 2003 with about 18 wet years.
Last fall was really dry and other than the big snow on Nov. 9th this winter has been on the dry side.
What happens this spring is any ones guess but I am betting on dry.

[malleefarmer]

Thread still on top all good.
2019 267 mm rain 220 mm in GS
2020 341mm smack on average 285mm GS

19 best ever barley on less rain. 20 below average barley.

19 wheat canola below average 20 above average

Legumes 19 shizenhausen 20 record.

Weird barley performed well in 19 on stuff all rain but poor this year

[sumdumguy]

The even years during the Eighties were brutal starting 1980. There were a lot of lessons learned as in no fall working fields. We almost always got enough rain to start the crop but if we didn’t get June/July rains it was tough. Grasshoppers and hail storms were a scourge.

[Old Cowzilla]

Ya I wish I had my air drill in the 80's that I have now it would have made a difference. I know its dry cause my neighbor who ( blackens everything ) parked his tillage this fall. Right now in this area you can drive through any field with an extended 2 wheel drive 1/2 ton with bald tires and not get stuck.

[burnt]

Droughts are getting much worse thanks to climate change which has necessitated the great reset, and removing Trump, installing Biden and Trudeau, So they had to invent the Wuhan flu, So that Bill Gates could vaccinate us all with a microchip, As a result, we are all going to have nothing and be happy while we freeze starving in the dark, thanks to 100% renewable energy all being diverted to Tesla chargers.
Did I miss anything?

Yes.

Yes, you missed at least two things.

But i don't want to be the one to derail this thread.

Good work, guys!!

We are fortunate here in the lea of Lake Huron. It brings us a more moderate type of weather and drought is usually very localized.

Southern Ontario has a wide reputation and being one of the most reliable crop-growing places in the world.

But the stability gets factored into the land values and rent, which are now $20Gs+ per acre and $300+/ac. Some areas hitting 30G. Insanity.

So, there are factors other than drought that make it interesting here.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thread still on top all good.
2019 267 mm rain 220 mm in GS
2020 341mm smack on average 285mm GS

19 best ever barley on less rain. 20 below average barley.

19 wheat canola below average 20 above average

Legumes 19 shizenhausen 20 record.

Weird barley performed well in 19 on stuff all rain but poor this year

Nothing unusual about that "here". Barley is an absolute wimp when it rains. One 2 inch rain event is a disaster for barley on our ground.

One thing to keep in mind when you see maps or read stats about what percentage of the prairies is in drought. It is typically the drier southern/central areas that are affected. But the highest yields per acre are outside of the palliser triangle. So if half the prairies are in drought, but it is mostly inside the Palliser triangle, the net effect isn't as big as it sounds.

Really dry years here are really stressful, but truthfully, they always seem to turn out way better than expected. Really wet years, the opposite is true. Not true for pasture and hayland.

As for cyclical, my unscientific observation is that major weather patterns seem to last for 3 years. 3 dry summers, 3 wet Junes, 3 mild winters, 3 winters with heavy snow, 3 early winters etc. But these patterns within the different seasons may overlap. Probably wouldn't stand up to statistical scrutiny though.

Dry years here: 1988, 2001, 2002 very very bad, 2003 even worse, 2009( perfect), 2015,2016,2017,2018 all had long dry periods. I've already dispelled my three year observation...