Herd Immunity?

[malleefarmer]

Really sorry sdg.

I continue with trials tribulations and joys of looking after my 90 yr old mom.

Doing ok to quite well some days

[malleefarmer]

Last week or so commentary from experts, media and govt seems to have taken a turn for the better.

Herd immunity talked about in conjunction with immunisation and natural herd immunity as well.

End goal rightly or wrongly being talked about.

But positive shift in thoughts momentum and numbers.

Seems to be similar world wide.

State next to me just came out of a 7 day lockdown think 19 positives all in serious quarantine but no huge blow out like recent months.

[sawfly1]

Jordy 2323
I instantly thought your holding the
Building up was about Trump saying
15 would be zero. Nothing to see here .
Just the flu.
Then 500, 000 dead

[Guest]

trumps gone ????

[burnt]

Getting us ready for the next one -

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/brainswelling-nipah-virus-75-times-more-deadly-than-coronavirus-may-be-next-pandemic-scientists-warn-of-the-big-one/news-story/5363e34783bd54c926434c738edd5e12 https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/brainswelling-nipah-virus-75-times-more-deadly-than-coronavirus-may-be-next-pandemic-scientists-warn-of-the-big-one/news-story/5363e34783bd54c926434c738edd5e12

[fjlip]

60% in India have antibodies, herd immunity. Few cases in Africa. Not as clean or sanitized, works better.

[dmlfarmer]

60% in India have antibodies, herd immunity. Few cases in Africa. Not as clean or sanitized, works better.

I really hope you are right but I would not bet on it.

The 60% claim was based on a sample of 28,000 serum tests in New Delhi. New Delhi metro area has a population of about 24 million people. And country wide India has 1.3 billion people. So that is a pretty small sample size to make a claim of herd immunity. No question there are areas in India which had very high infection rates but testing only those areas for antibodies does not mean herd immunity can be declared for the country. Phase three testing did last month found only 20-25% of those tested carried antibodies.

Second, the same claim was made about Manaus Brazil last summer. Extremely hard hit, with many deaths per day. But by fall the number of cases and deaths were falling and antibody testing showed 59% so herd immunity was declared. But cases spiked in December and January again due to new variants.

And many of you declared Sweden had achieved herd immunity last spring when they did not lock down yet they went through the same increase in Covid this fall as countries that did lock down and in fact had to lock down themselves.

And a number of posters claimed Covid would be over last fall in the US. That the death rate at 150,000 had topped out and there would be no more deaths. Yet here we are in February with deaths reaching 500,000 now.

And while you rejoice in a 70% drop in cases and deaths in the US, the actual case numbers are still higher than it was at its peak in the first wave last spring. Perhaps the falling numbers are simply reflective of people taking more precautions, more wearing masks, and vaccines as much as herd immunity.

https://chinamedicals.org/2021/02/02/india-archieved-herd-immunity-after-60-covid-19-infected/ https://chinamedicals.org/2021/02/02/india-archieved-herd-immunity-after-60-covid-19-infected/

https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/fighting-covid-19-in-conversation-with-dr-randeep-guleria/covid-cases-in-india-herd-immunity-in-india-is-a-myth-says-aiims-director-dr-randeep-guleria-576466 https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/fighting-covid-19-in-conversation-with-dr-randeep-guleria/covid-cases-in-india-herd-immunity-in-india-is-a-myth-says-aiims-director-dr-randeep-guleria-576466

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56037565

[fjlip]

Use the headline...way scarier

"Brain-swelling Nipah virus 75 times more deadly than coronavirus may be next pandemic, scientists warn of ‘The Big One’"

[Jordy2323]

And while you rejoice in a 70% drop in cases and deaths in the US, the actual case numbers are still higher than it was at its peak in the first wave last spring. Perhaps the falling numbers are simply reflective of people taking more precautions, more wearing masks, and vaccines as much as herd immunity.

Less than 6% of the US have received two doses of the vaccine... so I doubt its that.
States without mask mandates are equal to, or better then mandated states... so I doubt its that.
Maybe its simply reflective of the seasonality of viruses... and/or herd immunity, that no politician wants to acknowledge.

[shtferbrains]

Seems some have had enough and are ready for it to be over and some are willing to go on forever.

I can't figure out what it will take to be declared over.

Won't ever be normal and the hurt hasn't even began to show.
That will go on for years.

[WiltonRanch]

I’m not a denier that this virus is bad enough but am sick of the media and govts constant assault on our senses with brainless messaging and overused code words; “new normal” “we’re in this together” “unprecedented times” “cohorts” “bubbles” fml. The same Dudley Do Rights and sheeple feed into this horseshit and fall for it all. I’m a fairly balanced open minded person and don’t jump to conclusions either way but I’m starting to smell a rat and it’s spreading more bs than plague.

[jazz]

Here is how the spanish flu played out with no vaccines, no drugs, no govt intervention no shutting down the economy and very little medical care available to the general population. The population was advised to be cautious and they carried on. World was even fighting a war just before it.

It was blunted within a yr. and any subsequent waves were a fraction of the original outbreak which coincided with the middle of winter.