Wheat comments projections

[malleefarmer]

If this is even remotely true first thing that comes to mind what’s the point.

Second costs flatline yeah right there’s a flying pig.

Thirdly Prices flatline yeah right

Fourthly I could be taking it out of context and there was much more to it than just the graphical.

Fifthly cost of production 20/21? Compared to rest of years.

Presuming average yields? Or 3 bushel increase.

Projections are just that even mythical at times.

Peak wheat seems to have occurred not so beans and corn.

USA farmers would plant anything but wheat in those figures.

And finally have I dribbled enough. Any relevance to you guys

[malleefarmer]

Or is this deflation in action or commodity crunch.

No Machinery factored in I bet.

Throw in increased yields in Russia Black Sea Argie etc maybe wheat won’t be fun.

You guys are smarter than I shoot this to pieces.

Cropping in marginal areas may be a tough gig.

PS wheat prices here yesterday Saturday around the $280/85 on farm feed barley $235 on farm. Per tonne we don’t do bushels here.

[farming101]

Per acre profitability does not help wheat acres in the US. Wheat is grown where corn is too risky. US farmers love to grow corn.....
2020 saw the lowest wheat acreage harvested since 1890 in the US

[Rareearth]

Kevin and his friends have been sold out of corn and soybeans for a long time now. They didn’t see China, demand and 0 ending stocks.

They have experience, knowledge, insight, and close friends, that very few do.

Have to give them credit for admitting their error in missing this run up.

[malleefarmer]

Time to give up on marketing price forecast threads on a marketing forum.....

[TOM4CWB]

Time to give up on marketing price forecast threads on a marketing forum.....

Dear Malle,

Why do we farm...?

If we break even getting our livelihoods, can we expect more from commodity agriculture historically?

It has always been about our land being an inflation hedge... and intergenerational opportunities... if our next generations have the bloodlines to keep farming... without cashing out the land...

Do we really expect more than this?

Do any of us have a crystal ball... or is common sense our guide...

Thanks for your efforts!

Is this enough to keep doing this... hope it is!!!

Cheers!

[Old Cowzilla]

Years ago a neighbor said he could buy hay bales in the north country cheaper than he could put up his own hay. Then he said some dam fool bought them radios and the price of feed has been through the roof ever since. I really don't think grain co's like farmers having laptops, to much access to world stuff, sat pictures , boat movements and weather patterns. If we keep questioning things ,their gonna take away OUR RADIOS !

[Rareearth]

Things have changed a lot for the grain exporters as well. They commoditized the market, maximum volumes, efficiency of speed and scale, using older and better margin models ( same as what a farmer does) then everything has a natural way to equalize or level off (this happens with time) then the new normal is lower margins and the necessity of scale and volumes.

Exporters might not like it but the reality is things change, unintended consequences, this was globalization. I’m nervous that usa is moving away from globalization, to protectionism. With this other countries or trading blocks do the same. Cycle repeating?