Like everyone else this market continues to amaze. It is funny how just about everyone didn't see this coming. I am more uncertain of our planting intentions today than I have been in a lot of years. I feel we have a pretty good rotation and don't push canola too much , usually 2 other crops between and sometimes 3. That being said most max out their canola acres to what they feel doable simply because canola seems too always moves to provide cash flow. Wheat movement on the other hand has been slow as hell this year and when one sees feed wheat out pricing #1 HRS wheat something is out of wack. I admit, I love growing wheat but this year its a tough one to pencil out up till now at least.
Where I am get at is when you look at world wheat stocks , China on paper holds fully half of stocks. As many now feel their numbers are crap and now as we have seen such a buying spree by them that the evidence would appear that maybe world wheat stocks , like much of the other ag commodities are not what was the trade thought. I acknowledge that covid has changed things. What I see is most of the trade seem to think the other show will drop, and we will go back to normal trendlines. If it doesn't ? New crop HRS prices have been trending up but like other crops they need to buy acres.
Where I am get at is when you look at world wheat stocks , China on paper holds fully half of stocks. As many now feel their numbers are crap and now as we have seen such a buying spree by them that the evidence would appear that maybe world wheat stocks , like much of the other ag commodities are not what was the trade thought. I acknowledge that covid has changed things. What I see is most of the trade seem to think the other show will drop, and we will go back to normal trendlines. If it doesn't ? New crop HRS prices have been trending up but like other crops they need to buy acres.
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