Climate Events

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It sure is a good thing that the science is settled.
Otherwise a conflicting headline such as this from a peer reviewed paper published Feb 15 would be highly problematic

A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline

https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/ https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/
For anyone who doesn't care to read the paper. Chuck's apocalyptic story from the Guardian claims that the AMOC is weakening due to (you"ll never guess), global warming. And that this weakness is unprecedented in 1000 years.
The paper I linked published at the same time says no weakening for the past 30 years. And further states that we only have data back to 2005, everything before that relies on models(where have we seen those before).
How is a layman supposed to know which science to "believe" in?

[sumdumguy]

They can think up enough revenue sources without the sun.

[shtferbrains]

It sure is a good thing that the science is settled.
Otherwise a conflicting headline such as this from a peer reviewed paper published Feb 15 would be highly problematic


https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/ https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/
For anyone who doesn't care to read the paper. Chuck's apocalyptic story from the Guardian claims that the AMOC is weakening due to (you"ll never guess), global warming. And that this weakness is unprecedented in 1000 years.
The paper I linked published at the same time says no weakening for the past 30 years. And further states that we only have data back to 2005, everything before that relies on models(where have we seen those before).
How is a layman supposed to know which science to "believe" in?

That is inconvenient.

Be interesting to see if that gets recognition or if we just keep seeing everything based of poor data from the previous study as it was key the oceans will fail theory.
The oceans have always been the big C02 balancer, not a few million more trees.

Big push lately on floods and cold weather caused by man made climate change.

The heat will burn us up storey has lost it's sizzle.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That is inconvenient.

Big push lately on floods and cold weather caused by man made climate change.

The heat will burn us up storey has lost it's sizzle.

Anyone care to guess why they have moved on from pushing the heat narrative? Chuck, any ideas?

[Guest]

Or to be arrogant or stupid enough to think man can control the weather ?
What gets me is that there is a real pollution problem in big cities that you can see, smell ,taste and feel in most major cities and yet there worried about cow farts and shit like that
How about they clean up their own acts and leave us alone ?
-32 here today
-38 in coleville lake , NT today chuck
Not much ice meltin

[furrowtickler]

This will be so interesting in 5-10 years .. LOL

[chuckChuck]

It sure is a good thing that the science is settled.
Otherwise a conflicting headline such as this from a peer reviewed paper published Feb 15 would be highly problematic


https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/ https://os.copernicus.org/articles/17/285/2021/
For anyone who doesn't care to read the paper. Chuck's apocalyptic story from the Guardian claims that the AMOC is weakening due to (you"ll never guess), global warming. And that this weakness is unprecedented in 1000 years.
The paper I linked published at the same time says no weakening for the past 30 years. And further states that we only have data back to 2005, everything before that relies on models(where have we seen those before).
How is a layman supposed to know which science to "believe" in?

Quote" The paper I linked published at the same time says no weakening for the past 30 years." huh?


Did you read it because it clearly says weakening has been observed between 2004 and 2012 persisting untill 2017.

From the abstract of the paper you posted:
A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID – Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array – Western Boundary Time Series, hereafter RAPID array) with this weakened state of the AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model and paleo-oceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may have been declining for decades or even centuries before this; however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only “snapshots” of the overturning circulation. Previous studies have used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies to extend AMOC estimates back in time; however these ignore changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline. Here we develop a higher-fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability based on RAPID data and associated physically with changes in thickness of the persistent upper, intermediate, and deep water masses at 26∘ N and associated transports. We applied historical hydrographic data to the empirical model to create an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations and shows that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high-resolution climate models. Our results reinforce that adequately capturing changes to the deep circulation is key to detecting any anthropogenic climate-change-related AMOC decline.


Both studies posted, rely on modeling to come up with their conclusions. In the paper you published they conclude that there was a decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from 2004 -2017. But the authors note that in order to come to longer term evidence they need more data on deep circulation.

This is an interesting an important issue because of how important the gulf stream is to climate. So that's why we need to rely on the science and not dismiss it all, like some on Agrisilly are prone to doing.

The important take away is that the science of climate change is always evolving as new data and research is published. Let's leave it up to scientists to sort out the data and conclusions. One or two papers do not tell the whole story. The story is told by the whole body of research from many many scientist that continues to evolve.

Here is the abstract from the paper referenced in The Guardian article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z

Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium

L. Caesar, G. D. McCarthy, D. J. R. Thornalley, N. Cahill & S. Rahmstorf

Nature Geoscience (2021)Cite this article

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems—redistributes heat on our planet and has a major impact on climate. Here, we compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the evolution of the AMOC since about ad 400. A fairly consistent picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in recent decades.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Chuck, I am really impressed. You actually read the paper, you actually took the effort to understand it, you didn't just attack the source, the website, the authors, or the poster.

If you would take this approach every time, we could have civil constructive discussions on these topics.

Thank you. Genuinely.
These are discussions worth having, and research that has important implications. I think we are on the brink of having enough data and enough computing power to be able start making useful long long term forecasts based on these indicators.

Your bold missed some important statements though.

. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations and shows that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high-resolution climate models

Like all things climate, it is cyclical. As noted, the alarmist papers took a very short time series and extrapolated it back in time linearly. The second paper correlates the recent cycle with other proxy data and shows that there is nothing unprecedented about this short term weakening phase, it is all part of the "mulit annual variability". Which is to say, you can't cherry pick a 4 year period of weakening, and extend that linear trend back in time beyond where there is data.

[chuckChuck]

Alarmist's papers? I thought you wanted a constructive debate? LOL

I think there is good reason to raise some alarm about climate change.

As I said one or two papers do not tell the whole story on the AMOC. There will be many other pieces to this complex puzzle. No doubt there will be many more papers that accept or don't accept their conclusions.

But you also seem dispute land and ocean temperature change data, sea ice and land ice loss, glacier mass decline, CO2 levels and impacts. Scientists have much longer term data to draw upon in most of these areas of research and conclusions. But you are not convinced?

[TOM4CWB]

Alarmist's papers? I thought you wanted a constructive debate? LOL

I think there is good reason to raise some alarm about climate change.

As I said one or two papers do not tell the whole story on the AMOC. There will be many other pieces to this complex puzzle. No doubt there will be many more papers that accept or don't accept their conclusions.

But you also seem dispute land and ocean temperature change data, sea ice and land ice loss, glacier mass decline, CO2 levels and impacts. Scientists have much longer term data to draw upon in most of these areas of research and conclusions. But you are not convinced?

Question Chuck...

What are you afraid of?

What happens to you after your death?

Are you ready to escape death... or are you sure that you will be a part of the 7 years of great tribulation?

What is your hope in this life... and what causes you to be so afraid that you are so compelled to believe that the darkness of this age... and those who totally deny that God exists... embracing ‘Global Warming ‘ instead of the Gospel of Peace obeying the word of God!

God is good all the Time!!!

The Climate will change... no Question!

The question is will we be like the parable of the Rich Man, who tears down his barns and built bigger ones... to fill them with grain to survive (preparations to go off grid) to survive the very stormy dangerous days ahead!

Or

Prepare our lives (and those of our families) for our Future spiritual lives ...
Whether; either in ‘fear of the future.’ ...
or
with faith hope and Love, be charitable fearless ‘Good Samaritan’ examples of builders creating hope for the opportunity to bless our neighbours... who build treasure in Heaven.

Bless you! God Bless Canada!