Am I the only one,marketing.

[malleefarmer]

Gone from slightly bullish to neutral over the last two weeks.

It’s a demand market firstly.

Weather market secondly now was vice versa a while back.

Just can’t shift grain in oz for love or money.

Big crop.

Edit my broker commentator friend suggested to me Friday, if the big freeze didn’t occur in Texas wheat would be 50 cents lower by now. Took a while to digest that. And all the “freeze” photos I’ve seen a non event a month early to do any sustained damage.

But grain can turn on a dime. Await next round of weather dramas probably another month.

South America issues doing the rounds way different than info I get again the big dry a bit of a fizzer.

Everyone looking for reasons for it to go higher including me just ain’t happening just yet.

[malleefarmer]

And reading between the lines on here seems none of you guys surprised in the fall of canola , kinda like had to happen just case of when. But seems you all sold on the way up empty bins.

Reading think twitter, fall in canola will shake out weak sellers will reach even higher highs very soon. Hmmm not sure.

Again twitter “experts from NHemishere” can go much higher when there’s exportable surplus in Australia $150 cheaper than anywere else but that was a few weeks ago. Canola price here this week has dropped about $6 per tonne only.

Can’t ship it out.

[shtferbrains]

How many weak sellers are still holding?

[ColevilleH2S]

How many weak sellers are still holding?

I could have sold March delivery Canola for C$776/Tonne locally, earlier this week. Anyone that held through that is not a weak seller by my definition.

[furrowtickler]

Was quite the turn at the end of the day in canola .

[shtferbrains]

I could have sold March delivery Canola for C$776/Tonne locally, earlier this week. Anyone that held through that is not a weak seller by my definition.

My point exactly.

[Guest]

If it drops everyone will be sold out
If it goes up there will still be heroes holding

[macdon02]

Mallee, as a rule the longer a market goes sideways, the more energy it builds. We are not topping, in my opinion. Tops generally are a long wick candle, with immediate action confirming. None of this shit going sideways. Keep holding bullish sentiment. I show no end till "April" on a monthly level, so this can include the last week of March. Patience. I think a person really needs to hold some gambling bushels into summer, not lots but some.

[jazz]

This market is being obscured. Can book in $750 for canola for April May but we cant deliver a single bushel spot at any price right now. Cause they are all full. Whats up with that?

I cant tell the difference between real demand out there and paper speculation at this point. That makes this market fragile imo.

2/3rds sold canola as of this week. Starting some durum now, $9 for 1CWAD today.

[malleefarmer]

Last week every commodity has got the shitze on.

Zilch happening here as I said price wise narrow range in wheat canola despite moves barley edging up.

Wool I sold some two sales ago wed 17th best sale in 12 months a fluke. Prices retreated next day marginally and week just gone shed almost 7%.

Only thing heading north here is beef and lamb.

[malleefarmer]

Ps macdon 101 jazz errol everyone I enjoy your different view points and interaction on market direction.

Never say I’m right or wrong but often say I’m peeved.

And honestly don’t mean Jack shit what I say is happening in Australia compared to you guys, just for interest.

[burnt]

Does anyone write OTM calls on deferred months in a market like this to hedge new crop? As a way of protecting some costs or locking in a margin?

A friend of mine did this but I always lacked the nerve.