Drought Watch 2021

[helmsdale]

There's not alot of moisture out there. Obviously there is still time for things to change. I sincerely hope that we can look back at these seasonal outlooks and drought maps, and thank our lucky stars that we made out ok.

Recent soil moisture and precipitation maps for the prairies...

Departure from average precipitation from Nov 1 -> feb 27


% of average precipitation over the last 90 days


% of normal soil moisture as of jan 31
-Nearly all of SK/MB is deficient as well as central AB


total soil moisture as of jan 31


winter precip percentiles. You can see a storm track basically from lethbridge through saskatoon. The rest has largely been left out.

[Austrian Economics]

There's a weather station down the road from me which has a moisture probe. Very dry soil at least 5 feet down.

We got lucky the past two years because we had substantial rains just before winter. That didn't happen last fall.

If we don't get moisture, the crops will be going into some very dry soil.

I'm near Winnipeg.

[4GFarms]

Don’t matter if it’s dry.
Everybody is growing 50 canola @ 18 and 80 wheat @ 8
Buying up all the land locally. Don’t know where to stuff all my money!

[ajl]

Snowing here east of Edmonton right now. What is drought? Thankful for a dry winter as we have less snow than last few winters which means less get blown in the yard. Air drill is one large drift so will not need to work on it this week. New openers should arrive in two weeks. In 2017 we had false spring during end of Feb and early march and then lots of snow at the end of Apr/early May during calving season. Seeding was delayed and lots of unseeded acres that spring. Still more spring thrash to be done yet around here than I thought which was a surprise on a local drive around. I got finished last fall so no spring thrash for me this year. These were mainly fields seeded June 23&24 last summer.

[Sheepwheat]

Snowing here east of Edmonton right now. What is drought? Thankful for a dry winter as we have less snow than last few winters which means less get blown in the yard. Air drill is one large drift so will not need to work on it this week. New openers should arrive in two weeks. In 2017 we had false spring during end of Feb and early march and then lots of snow at the end of Apr/early May during calving season. Seeding was delayed and lots of unseeded acres that spring. Still more spring thrash to be done yet around here than I thought which was a surprise on a local drive around. I got finished last fall so no spring thrash for me this year. These were mainly fields seeded June 23&24 last summer.

I hear you. It’s hard to say, but a half early chance at spring is always welcome here too.

[Goodtime]

And the industry don't mention a word about drought all they say is canola is 18 a bushel and fertilizer is up at the retailer !

Elevators calling saying lock in for next fall, oats $4, Canola $13 lock it all in because it will rain.

[GDR]

Elevators calling saying lock in for next fall, oats $4, Canola $13 lock it all in because it will rain.

Ya but they may be right and you might be kicking yourself next fall selling $10 canola again. When that happens to me I'm gonna feel just as stupid as I do now for selling it all for $12.25 last fall.

Wouldnt say we are flush with water but not worried at all here drought wise.

[sumdumguy]

In dry years (the eighties)the guys who grew the best crops seeded late and harrowed every acre after seeding.

[helmsdale]

[jazz]

100th meridian curse.

I hope AF doesnt see this thread, he will just store everything even longer.

But seriously everyone is chomping at the bit to empty the bins before seeding, but there could really could be an explosive situation come fall. Right now we dont have enough moisture to bring something like a decent canola crop through. We are going to need 10inches of rain fall to make 50bu. Could it happen? sure, things change on a dime in this country, but the trend doesnt look that way so far.

[helmsdale]

Drought in western half of US is expanding.



Current state in Canada:

[Old Cowzilla]

Maybe it's a good thing wheat is still a shitty price what I have left might be the only wheat I have to sell in the fall. That's if I don't put it in a mixing wagon first. Look's like we are in the worst spot but I already new that cause I am just down the road of a community well, lots of trucks hauling .

[helmsdale]

It would appear that the big "D" is here... July is shaping up to be as bad or worse than forecast this last winter.

[jazz]

Looks like the crop already knows what's coming. Canola rushing to bolt. Some very short. Wheat rushing to flag.

We got 2 lucky little rains past few nights. Hopefully the heat kicks up some t storms and we get some cool nights.

Big crop is already gone imo. Average at best.

[poorboy]

Most of southern Alberta has missed the spring rains. If it gets hot like they forcast and no rain, by next weekend the cereal crops won’t even get harvested. If it rains the cereal crops will yield max of 40% of normal.

Peas are going into flower and they are 5” tall.

Average crop would be a nice dream to have here.

Too dry for thunder showers here. 30 to 40 degree C temps for the next 7 days. Ouch