Drought Watch 2021

[Hamloc]

Yes it has. Too bad you refuse to see that it is also possible man is impacting climate just as the sun, cycles, geology, etc. Amazing how similar Climate change denial is to Covid denial. Any excuse you can dream up is better than having to face the real possibility that man is contributing to the problem and it is easier to deny a problem even exists than consider the possibility much less take any action against it.

Dml what do you consider to be action against it? What are you doing personally to take action against it?

My thought is this, if government actually believes what it says that, the amount of C02 in the atmosphere has already guaranteed that the climate will warm, should we not be spending money making the crops we grow more resilient to heat. Wheat and Barley are most productive at 20-25* celsius, flowering during a period over +30 greatly reduces yield. Wouldn’t money be better spend on adapting our food production to tolerate the change in climate? What about relocating peoples residences out of flood plains? The list goes on. But in reality the government is spending its money subsidizing electric car charging stations and subsidizing Chinese made solar panels. So attack our outlook all you want, I won’t support our present federal government’s policies!

[helmsdale]

Well this thread got derailed.

Here's an attempt to put it back on track.

Has anyone else punched soil cores? Drove around yesterday and all crops are suffering. It doesn't matter whether it's on chemfallow or stubble. There is still respectable moisture in the entire 12" soil profile with the exception of the top 1.5", but it seems that the crop is completely unable to keep up. Compaction certainly shows up this year!

How long do you guys think you can hold on? Yield most certainly has been taken off the table. Models do not seem to indicate any respite in the near or even medium term future.

Speaking for this area, some crops are done regardless of whether the heat breaks today, tomorrow, or two weeks from now. In another week it'll be approaching disaster across the board, and if meaningful rain doesnt show up until harvest time, combines will be rolling in the low spots on all crop types the last week of July to try and gather up seed for next year.

[Sheepwheat]

Dml what do you consider to be action against it? What are you doing personally to take action against it?

My thought is this, if government actually believes what it says that, the amount of C02 in the atmosphere has already guaranteed that the climate will warm, should we not be spending money making the crops we grow more resilient to heat. Wheat and Barley are most productive at 20-25* celsius, flowering during a period over +30 greatly reduces yield. Wouldn’t money be better spend on adapting our food production to tolerate the change in climate? What about relocating peoples residences out of flood plains? The list goes on. But in reality the government is spending its money subsidizing electric car charging stations and subsidizing Chinese made solar panels. So attack our outlook all you want, I won’t support our present federal government’s policies!

He’s confused because you mentioned wheat and barley flowering.

[furrowtickler]

Well this thread got derailed.

Here's an attempt to put it back on track.

Has anyone else punched soil cores? Drove around yesterday and all crops are suffering. It doesn't matter whether it's on chemfallow or stubble. There is still respectable moisture in the entire 12" soil profile with the exception of the top 1.5", but it seems that the crop is completely unable to keep up. Compaction certainly shows up this year!

How long do you guys think you can hold on? Yield most certainly has been taken off the table. Models do not seem to indicate any respite in the near or even medium term future.

Speaking for this area, some crops are done regardless of whether the heat breaks today, tomorrow, or two weeks from now. In another week it'll be approaching disaster across the board, and if meaningful rain doesnt show up until harvest time, combines will be rolling in the low spots on all crop types the last week of July to try and gather up seed for next year.

Guys with soil probs here are seeing a lose of 1/2 in of soil moisture per day
Crops are hanging on but we still have to make it through the next 5 days
Not sure what to expect but it won’t be good
Crop is using a lot of moisture right now

[jazz]

How long do you guys think you can hold on? Yield most certainly has been taken off the table. Models do not seem to indicate any respite in the near or even medium term future.

Pulled some plants last night. lentils are rooted nice and deep but canola didnt seem rooted as well. It really needed a real shot of something before going into bolting. Usually end of June is pretty reliable for moisture.

Real lack of thunderstorms here too.

I think we can reasonably survive a week to 10 days. Coolish nights will help.

But the big crop is long gone now especially in canola. Wonder if the market experts will figure that out this time.

[Hamloc]

Well this thread got derailed.

Here's an attempt to put it back on track.

Has anyone else punched soil cores? Drove around yesterday and all crops are suffering. It doesn't matter whether it's on chemfallow or stubble. There is still respectable moisture in the entire 12" soil profile with the exception of the top 1.5", but it seems that the crop is completely unable to keep up. Compaction certainly shows up this year!

How long do you guys think you can hold on? Yield most certainly has been taken off the table. Models do not seem to indicate any respite in the near or even medium term future.

Speaking for this area, some crops are done regardless of whether the heat breaks today, tomorrow, or two weeks from now. In another week it'll be approaching disaster across the board, and if meaningful rain doesnt show up until harvest time, combines will be rolling in the low spots on all crop types the last week of July to try and gather up seed for next year.

Helmsdale just curious what area you farm in? Here in central Alberta the heat and lack of rain in the forecast(just looked nothing in the 14 day) has me very worried. I will be honest up until now our crops looked good. No doubt yield going backwards every day. I was just reading an article on the Western Producer website on the condition of western Canada’s canola crop in which Clint Jurke from the canola council of Canada said that the majority of the crop won’t be in full flowering stage development for another 2 to 3 weeks which could minimize the amount of heat damage. Personally at the speed crops are advancing around here flowering will be done by then.

[jazz]

majority of the crop won’t be in full flowering stage development for another 2 to 3 weeks which could minimize the amount of heat damage. Personally at the speed crops are advancing around here flowering will be done by then.

Hamloc, I read that article too. Did you note the part about ND crops saying they were nearly a write off.

I noticed even later seeded canola is rushing to bolt now. I have a neighbor who seeded 2 weeks after I did and his is bolting now too, just mere days behind mine. The crop feels stress, its not waiting.

[GDR]

Annual crops still look pretty decent here considering the lack of moisture. Thinner than we are used to, isnt tillering like normal though. The big swath of hail that went through provided some moisture and that area looks overall better than where the storm didnt go. (minus the house and vehicle damage). Also the delay on the canola may help yield as early canola is bolting in the heat this week.

Hay and pasture is dismal, hay has been shriveling up the last couple weeks, mostly cut here and will be a third of normal. Not sure what is gonna happen with the pastures, there is a big wreck coming here if it dont rain soon and will be a big wreck for a big number of head. An inch or two isn't gonna help the grass, it needs a couple weeks of wet cooler weather to recover or its done.

It really feels like fall around here, hard to believe it's still June.

[helmsdale]

But the big crop is long gone now especially in canola. Wonder if the market experts will figure that out this time.

Driving around, while ill admit my circle is considerably smaller than it used to be, I'll throw it out there that the big crop of ANYTHING is gone!

-Hay is curing while standing
-Pastures are becoming a serious fire hazard!
-I've seen a few *ok* oilseed crops, but they all seem to be struggling. It's been a hell of a go between beetles, frost, hot temps, cold temps, gophers, etc.
-*ok* cereal crops are visibly wilting, bad/terrible cereal crops are dying!
-Pea crops have quit growing vertically and are trying to set what seed they can.
-ALOT of lentil crops around here never filled in.

[helmsdale]

Markets are definitely taking notice.

P&H email this morning: "MGEX up sharply this am!"

North American Durum crop has to be taking it on the nose! There are significant tracts of durum country that are 1-800-cropinsurance territory and will likely be rolled up for feed.

Hearing of Canola shortages in Europe... You can't possibly tell me that this crop is going to replenish stocks let alone maintain current crush capacity!

If I had pre-sold production without an "ACT of god" clause I'd be shitting myself thinking about what its going to cost to buy that thing out!