Drought Watch 2021

[helmsdale]

Plenty of cereals burning out top 1/3 to 1/2 of heads here. That's on an already paltry stand.

Significant portions of pea fields are failing to pod. Bottom leaves cooked golden and stems yellow at bottom. Uncharted territory here, but I'd hazard to guess those spots are going to register near zero on yield monitors.

Oilseeds coming off bloom... 10 days... and 4 or 5 of those days produced blanks. Going to be a real struggle to keep whatever seed is set inside the combine.

If moisture does not show up in a meaningful way by beginning of next week, I'm willing to bet it'll prove to be a hindrance to harvest beyond that... new flushes of weeds, super late non viable tillers etc.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From Arlan Suderman: I think last weeks rating was already record low.

Spring #wheat crop drops to 16% Good to Excellent, down from 20% previous week. Trade was looking for 19% G/E. This week's rains won't save this crop, with ND most at risk, along with Canadian Prairies.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I just checked where canola is grown in the US.

90% of the canola in the U.S. is grown in North Dakota, with the rest growing in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains.

All in the heart of the drought. PNW is in even worse shape than ND.

Canola oil Worldwide:

Kazakhstan with a production of 240,000 MT is the tenth country
Pakistan, with a production of 322,000 MT is the 9th largest producer of this oil.
Belarus is the 8th with a production of 681,000 MT
United States with a production of 1,013,000 MT is the 7th.
The 6th largest producer of this oil is Russia with a production of 1,437,000 MT
Ukraine being the 5th has a production of 2,367,000 MT
Australia comes next at 4th place with a production of 3,814,000 MT
India is the 3rd largest producer of Canola Oil, and the production is of 7,946,000 MT
China with a production of 14,853,000 MT is the 2nd largest Canola Oil producing country
Canada leads all with Canola Oil production with a production of 18,362,000 MT

EU is not on the list, do they only grow ****seed? Or are the individual countries too small to register on teh top 10 list?

China and India are not net exporters. So that leaves all the rest to fill the void, which combined grow only half as much as all of Canada as of these 2017 stats.

So if this crop comes up as short as some are speculating, there is no where else in the world to make up the shortfall from. Do big name food and restaurant companies reverse their years long marketing campaigns and subsititute canola with other products after spending all this marketing money promoting the health benefits?

[jazz]

Wheels coming off this crop all around this week. Wheat needs moisture. Drawing on soil moisture from 6 weeks ago. Lentils only crop worth spending on. Grasshoppers in there now. Some how there is still miring dew so fungicide going down.

[Herc]

Cue the fat lady.....

[megrizzly]

Toured around Hwy 35 & 6 north of the qu'appel valley including the towns of Melfort, Watson, Southey, Wadena, Tisdale, and Nipawin.

South of Hwy 3 (Melfort to Tisdale), crops are consistently mediocre to poor. The good areas are very small and I think are related to good farmers or a freak rain then anything. Some herbicides on cereals and canola were still in progress and hardly any to no fungicide activity.

Theres consistently good crops along hwy 3 and near Nipawin. Areas where the hail damaged crop last year seem to have just a touch more moisture, but its enough to make a difference.

[Taiga]

My oats starting turning white today. Foundation seed. Should have gone bin run this year..

[fcr]

Took a drive down to ritchie bros.sight today, hardly anyone there looking. Crops from buffalo pound to wilcox look good, still have water in sloughs and ditches in spots.North of the valley is a different story,barley is a disaster,canola short and patchy, wheat turning white. Lentils look good however.

[furrowtickler]

I just checked where canola is grown in the US.



All in the heart of the drought. PNW is in even worse shape than ND.

Canola oil Worldwide:

Kazakhstan with a production of 240,000 MT is the tenth country
Pakistan, with a production of 322,000 MT is the 9th largest producer of this oil.
Belarus is the 8th with a production of 681,000 MT
United States with a production of 1,013,000 MT is the 7th.
The 6th largest producer of this oil is Russia with a production of 1,437,000 MT
Ukraine being the 5th has a production of 2,367,000 MT
Australia comes next at 4th place with a production of 3,814,000 MT
India is the 3rd largest producer of Canola Oil, and the production is of 7,946,000 MT
China with a production of 14,853,000 MT is the 2nd largest Canola Oil producing country
Canada leads all with Canola Oil production with a production of 18,362,000 MT

EU is not on the list, do they only grow ****seed? Or are the individual countries too small to register on teh top 10 list?

China and India are not net exporters. So that leaves all the rest to fill the void, which combined grow only half as much as all of Canada as of these 2017 stats.

So if this crop comes up as short as some are speculating, there is no where else in the world to make up the shortfall from. Do big name food and restaurant companies reverse their years long marketing campaigns and subsititute canola with other products after spending all this marketing money promoting the health benefits?

Will not be speculating now , it will be short

[bucket]

Will not be speculating now , it will be short

What an incredible opportunity for galen weston

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Will not be speculating now , it will be short

Without a doubt it will be short. But will it be disasterously short, or just really bad?
Market doesn't seem convinced of the disaster outcome.

[jazz]

Without a doubt it will be short. But will it be disasterously short, or just really bad?
Market doesn't seem convinced of the disaster outcome.

We will also be short spring moisture again unless we have a hell of a winter.

Are guys going to roll the canola dice in the south again with those conditions?