Drought Watch 2021

[dmlfarmer]

I’m on the other side of the province as furrow, and I’ll vouch for the same thing. I would also vouch that summer temperatures have plummeted since records started being taken on this farm. Anyone else want to jump in and put this dml in his place?

Your right Sheepwheat, your farm is representative of every farm in western Canada. Everyone gets same temps, same moisture, same frosts as your farm. You are the center of the universe, My mistake. Maybe crop insurance should be based on sheepwheats production for all of western Canada.

[Sheepwheat]

Your right Sheepwheat, your farm is representative of every farm in western Canada. Everyone gets same temps, same moisture, same frosts as your farm. You are the center of the universe, My mistake. Maybe crop insurance should be based on sheepwheats production for all of western Canada.

You need to take some reading comprehension lessons. No wonder you believe the drivel you believe, if from my post you got out of it what you claim to have gotten out of it. Did you catch that?

[helmsdale]

Helmsdale just curious what area you farm in? Here in central Alberta the heat and lack of rain in the forecast(just looked nothing in the 14 day) has me very worried. I will be honest up until now our crops looked good. No doubt yield going backwards every day. I was just reading an article on the Western Producer website on the condition of western Canada’s canola crop in which Clint Jurke from the canola council of Canada said that the majority of the crop won’t be in full flowering stage development for another 2 to 3 weeks which could minimize the amount of heat damage. Personally at the speed crops are advancing around here flowering will be done by then.

Draw a line east of the north end of calgary, and intersect another line north of the west side of medicine hat. That's me.

[furrowtickler]

And who says growing seasons in western Canada are not longer? You because of frosts in your little part of the prairies? Show me one scientific study showing growing seasons are not getting longer in western Canada. Yes there may be pockets where late spring and early fall frosts happen but could that not be the extremes and variablity to be expected with a warming world that we have warned about.

I have DMODD, and I have found lots of credible, peer reviewed studies showing a lenghtening of the growing season. Probably the best in out of the U of L looking at Alberta growing season length, frost free days and a host of other climatic factors between 1950 and 2017 across the province. Yes, there is a small area around Grand Cache and other in East Central Alberta which did not show longer growing season or GDDs but it is small pockets. Lots of places have gained 2 weeks or more in growing season The trend lines are easy to see at http://www.albertaclimaterecords.com/ http://www.albertaclimaterecords.com/

Natural Resources Canada has this chart of the increasing lenght of growing season in Canada [ATTACH]8170[/ATTACH]

It is happening in the US too. This Chart from EPA [ATTACH]8171[/ATTACH]

"During 1991-2011, the average frost-free season was about 10 days longer than during 1901-1960." https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season

"The average U.S. growing season has been extended by about two weeks, according to data collected from 1900 to 2014. University of Nebraska–Lincoln researchers have assembled a region-by-region composite of how climate change has affected agricultural timelines and yields of six crops throughout the United States." https://www.agupdate.com/agriview/news/crop/climate-change-extending-growing-season/article_cd0a0bb9-889b-52a5-94e4-5550379dcb0f.html https://www.agupdate.com/agriview/news/crop/climate-change-extending-growing-season/article_cd0a0bb9-889b-52a5-94e4-5550379dcb0f.html

Again, my point is that just like antivaxers, you base your claim on a very small subset of data. Just because a frost happened to you does not mean growing seasons are not lenghtening.

The latest frost went in areas from Swift Current north to the Forest belt east to Tisdale and south in areas past Humbolt .... on June 20th
My little part of the prairies is much bigger than your assumptions, or the vast amount of farms I know .
Don’t need scientific studies to show crop damage spring and fall across a vast area over the past several years .

[Hamloc]

Draw a line east of the north end of calgary, and intersect another line north of the west side of medicine hat. That's me.

Good to know the areas people are referring to as it gives it more perspective. Certainly unfortunate that Mother Nature is being so inhospitable, yield is disappearing everywhere, some more than others! While I enjoy your use of Fahrenheit for temperatures it had me wondering if you farmed in the U.S.

[Hamloc]

Hamloc, I have a neighbor who cattle are out all the time. Some blame the fences, but they are not that bad. The real problem is he continually overgrazes and has too many cattle for the area. So what is the fix for his cattle on the highway? Better fences, fewer cattle, rotational grazing. My point is the problem will continue until the real issue is addessed which is lack of pasture. I agree we need to look at more adaptable crops that can handle more weather extremes and variability, including not only heat, but also late spring frosts which could be a result of increased weather variability. But at the same time, unless we address the real problem, which is the the cause of climate change, we will continue to see problems increase. Just because we get better crops does not solve the problems which are causing climate change.

My biggest fear is that if we continue to pretend climate change is not happening, or show what modern agriculture is doing to sequester carbon through zero till, agriculture will continue to be seen as a root cause and it will cost us. And I really believe it will lead to disasterous experiments to try and cool the earth. Then we can kiss agriculture in Canada goodbye.

A couple of thoughts. First, a $170 a tonne carbon tax will cost us, this is going to happen regardless of what you or I do or say. Trudeau will get a majority and western Canada will continue to be vilified.

As for disastrous experiments to cool the earth no doubt in my mind they will occur as well. I do find it interesting that you think there is something that can be done to change the national narrative, good luck.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for the analysis Dr Phil.
So you believe man is affecting climate but the problem is exaggerated. By how much is it exaggerated? Based on what evidence is the problem exaggerated? If man is affecting climate as you now say you believe, should man be doing anything about it? What? Or are you content to just list excuses like cycles and do nothing?

This is yet another example of misleading temps .... and it happens everywhere.
Currently everywhere I am driving this morning, 2-6 miles from airport



Reading from airport that represents about 1/1000th the surrounding area outside the city limits


This is very consistent time after time after time

[jazz]

This is yet another example of misleading temps .... and it happens everywhere.

Not sure if the general joe public noticed, but a few degrees was shaved off every daily forecast at the last minute. We never got 38deg like they predicated. Got 35 for a few hours one day. Otherwise it was 33, 32 for that unprecedented heat wave. One day it was supposed to be 32 only got to 27. yesterday was supposed to be 30, got to 26.

A hot day in some low lying trapped area in the mountains probably with an inversion in the mix got worked up into the end of the world.

Sounds like some scare mongering climate cult narrative being written in for the masses.

Still didnt touch the record at Midale.

[Dr Tone]

Today is cooler than forecasted, but other than that we hit every forecasted temperature during the heat wave.

[Old Cowzilla]

35 seems to be the number around here the last few days. They say cooler from now on for a few. Put a couple of cans of Cold in the magnun to make the yellow light go out ( thank god ) otherwise it's usually a $1ooo trip from some service tec. White pastures and chubby seagulls are a common theme in our area now!

[jazz]

Today is cooler than forecasted, but other than that we hit every forecasted temperature during the heat wave.

You have to be careful what forecast you are referring to. They change it hourly if you are not watching.

The few days prior the WN had most of sask hitting 40deg, then they slowly (just like the rain forecasts) wound that back bit by bit until it was in the range of whats normal around here. 32deg day in first week of July is not abnormal. neither is a week of them.

[Dr Tone]

Are you ****ing serious? Telling me I can’t read a forecast correct just because it doesn’t align with your latest conspiracy theory.

The far left and far right on this forum is getting out of hand..

[jazz]

Are you ****ing serious? Telling me I can’t read a forecast correct just because it doesn’t align with your latest conspiracy theory.

The far left and far right on this forum is getting out of hand..

Nobody is telling you you cant read a forecast. Or its a conspiracy. Just what it is. They are wrong lots and the errors in the forecasts are huge and thats everything from rain, to temp and wind. They are often wrong just a half a day out. And because of those errors they have no right to pump up climate change in weekly weather forecasting. Thats all I am saying.

[bucket]

Has one politician even recognized what the phuck is going on in western canada farmland.

Cattle guys are going to take a shitkicking again...I have a few cows but the guys that earn their living from cows are going to be decimated...

A payment doesnt help if there is no feed anywhere in North America....


Sure they can graze for a while longer but it kicks the shit out of their pastures as well....then what????


Ignorance on the part of politicians is astounding.

[GDR]

Today is cooler than forecasted, but other than that we hit every forecasted temperature during the heat wave.

We actually were about a degree warmer than the forecasts all last week, and a week of 38/39 degrees is very abnormal for our area.