As easy as wheat

[poorboy]

Who is looking after the grain payment? If it is the trader, I doubt they are doing it for $3/t?

[malleefarmer]

Who is looking after the grain payment? If it is the trader, I doubt they are doing it for $3/t?

Not sure what you mean. Farmers got paid during harvest.

Traders margin always is always will be the $3 to $7 per tonne.

Volume volume volume.

I posted this on twitter 4 traders contacted me and said spot on give or take a buck or two.

The old cold war single desk warriors are one about a royal commision into prices saying farmers getting gouged. They seem to forget all the costs associated with getting grain to destination.

L D commodities got burnt in our state due to bidding up for port slotsthen a-failed harvest about 6 years ago did $45 to 50 per tonne loss.

Aint been in my state since.

I know im the only one on Agriville and i make zero apologies traders make money lose money and are needed in a liquid volatile transperant market. I know i think 100% different than you guys.

It’s different here than western canada.

Maybe 101 and macdon dont hate traders and errol.

[TOM4CWB]

Not sure what you mean. Farmers got paid during harvest.

Traders margin always is always will be the $3 to $7 per tonne.

Volume volume volume.

I posted this on twitter 4 traders contacted me and said spot on give or take a buck or two.

The old cold war single desk warriors are one about a royal commision into prices saying farmers getting gouged. They seem to forget all the costs associated with getting grain to destination.

L D commodities got burnt in our state due to bidding up for port slotsthen a-failed harvest about 6 years ago did $45 to 50 per tonne loss.

Aint been in my state since.

I know im the only one on Agriville and i make zero apologies traders make money lose money and are needed in a liquid volatile transperant market. I know i think 100% different than you guys.

It’s different here than western canada.

Maybe 101 and macdon dont hate traders and errol.

What am I Maallee... shark bait?

Grin

Hope you had a great St. Pats Day and made lots of Green!!!

I understand Netflicks is showing 'I Am Patrick', a well done CBN.com St. Pattys Day show! Have a peak... St Patrick makes us all look like a bunch of wining crybabies... after what he went through in his life the 5th Century... kidnapped... sold into slavery... then gave his life for the Irish!

Cheers

[malleefarmer]

Another 60 t

But i should point out recieval docket.



If ya check docket says load outcome no deductions. Trucker said first load is test load if its good to go on boat you go to front if line. If there are deductions see ya later pick it up later meaning recleaning at port. When we harvest air thresher everything flat out get best sample possible blowthe small grain weeds out the back into chaff lines or 8nto weed destructer not in the box. Hence i got top grade. Many farmers only gotta harvest it to minimum specs stuff that.







Sorry for the rant.

If yall think im a arsehat i will join farma on the sidelines bless his soul

[TOM4CWB]

Another 60 t

But i should point out recieval docket.

[ATTACH]7664[/ATTACH]

If ya check docket says load outcome no deductions. Trucker said first load is test load if its good to go on boat you go to front if line. If there are deductions see ya later pick it up later meaning recleaning at port. When we harvest air thresher everything flat out get best sample possible blowthe small grain weeds out the back into chaff lines or 8nto weed destructer not in the box. Hence i got top grade. Many farmers only gotta harvest it to minimum specs stuff that.

[ATTACH]7665[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]7666[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]7667[/ATTACH]

Sorry for the rant.

If yall think im a arsehat i will join farma on the sidelines bless his soul

Mallee

You are like a warm Chinook wind.. on a -30 day in Alberta! Thanks for sharing your pics!

We are loading/Shipping out Nexera today... WOW...way over $30K per truckload! 6.6moisture... 1% green... 1% Doc...74.7 Oleic... 2.2 Low Linolenic... 62.920 gross...43.471t unload

Cheers to a great St Pats Day!

[malleefarmer]

The Snapshot

ASX wheat is offering A$296 for the coming harvest.
The Chicago wheat contract is trading at A$301 for harvest.
This means that ASX wheat is trading at a negative basis.
Typically ASX trades at a premium to Chicago.
The only time ASX trades at a discount is during a year of surplus. Even then, it tends not to stay negative for long.
ASX basis to Chicago since 2010; Min -A$26, max +A$181 and an average of A$42.
The max will only be achieved during a drought when production is obliterated.
Provided we don’t have a huge year of production, we would expect the basis to rise above zero.
An extreme basis isn’t always a good thing, as it means end users are unprofitable and grain farmers are likely not producing enough to cover the deficit of production.
Using CBOT and leaving the basis open may provide opportunities to lock in a higher basis at a later date.

It doesn’t feel long since the headers were rolling, and in a few weeks the seeding rigs will out in action. Understandably, markets will not be the first and foremost thought – but it is always important to keep a close eye on the horizon – as it will come quickly.

This article will take a look at the ASX wheat contract (east coast) versus Chicago. These are two separate contracts used for hedging Australian wheat. The ASX contract is based on the physical delivery of Australian wheat, and the Chicago contract based in the US.

At present, the ASX contract is trading at A$296.5, and CBOT is trading at A$301. The ASX contract is for Jan 2022, and the CBOT Dec 2012, which are comparable for our harvest.

They are trading within a cat’s whisker of each other. This has been the case for the past two months.

It is understandable for the current year to be low (basis) due to the large crop, but why is the basis for next year so low, and which contract should you take out? US or Australia.

Presently, both contracts are trading at very similar levels for the coming harvest. As is representative of Australian wheat (at least east coast), how has it performed versus Chicago in the past?

Australian wheat tends to trade at a premium to Chicago; this has been the case for the past decade. The exceptions are during periods of surplus production when basis may become neutral or even negative. However, even when basis trades at a discount, it tends to only be for short periods.

At present, the basis on offer for the coming harvest is slightly negative. This is not reflective of an average potential season but of decent production. In March, the season could go in any direction. Therefore I wouldn’t be banking on a season of negative basis.

So what is basis likely to be?

In the past decade, the lowest basis level between ASX and Chicago has been -A$26, and the highest basis level has been +A$181, and an average of +A$42. This is based on the weekly average pricing.

Currently, the basis is slightly negative, which points towards the market not being overly concerned with access to grain at harvest. This could be a combination of factors, from high carryover, reasonable pre-seeding moisture and just a touch of apathy.

It is doubtful that we will have the high end of the range next season without a corresponding drop in production that drought brings. Let’s hope we don’t have an extreme basis level, as it is likely that this will correlate with low production.

While history is not an indicator of the future; I would expect a higher than zero basis as we come into harvest unless we have another great year. If we have another great year, at least production will make up for losses in basis.

It may be worthwhile leaving the basis open and locking in the futures component at a later date. Chicago currently offers A$301 with the basis to still be included. The basis level could end up negative, but on historical examples, it rarely is.

[malleefarmer]

Im guessing 20% of Agrivillians read my ramble but if you double read at times there are parallels.

I read intensely the marketing post’s on here.

You and I compete for exact same. Markets

By the way thanks tom.

I dont post to stir shitze i post for interaction and discussion.

Sure i dont get on with CC and his views so be it but all the other so called lefties which there not are fine.

Enjoy there views and free speech.

Agriville really is unique the extreme guys on left and right dont realize it