https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/03/25/We-Could-Have-Been-Largely-Free-Pandemic-By-Now/ https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/03/25/We-Could-Have-Been-Largely-Free-Pandemic-By-Now/
We Could Have Been Largely Free of the Pandemic by Now
How Canada’s leaders chose a third wave by deciding to muddle along.
Andrew Nikiforuk 25 Mar 2021 | TheTyee.ca
We’ve blown it again. Seven weeks ago, channelling a number of renowned experts, I warned that many parts of Canada would experience a third wave of the pandemic if provincial leaders didn’t get off their collective asses and change their failing strategy of yo-yo closures and openings with no regard for exponential growth.
Instead I recommended a no-nonsense elimination strategy — the Canadian Shield — with clear targets for reducing transmission devised by a collection of Canadian experts with the goal of banishing this multi-organ disease from our borders.
I warned that the variants of concern from the U.K., Brazil and South Africa represented another pandemic altogether.
I explained that these deadlier and highly contagious variants are harder and costlier to fight, and could undermine the vaccination program and plunge us into a third wave.
The uncertainty they represented added to the urgency of “going for zero†— a slogan that encompasses sharper restrictions on travel, imposing strict lockdowns, marking green zones rendered free of the virus and protecting them, relentlessly testing and tracing — and in the process systematically driving transmission to zero.
I also argued that bare-minimum muddling through by “living with†COVID-19 was a disastrous idea because this pandemic is not just about the dead but about the living.
I wrote that the experience of countries like New Zealand and Australia proved that eliminating the virus in our communities could be achieved in six weeks using going-for-zero tactics, but it would require committed leadership.
I wrote that on Jan. 28.
If our leaders had acted, Canada could now be COVID-free. Just like the Australians or Taiwanese, we could now be going to concerts and visiting relatives without fear. Our schools and our elders would be safe. Small businesses would be thriving.
Instead we find ourselves in a third wave fretting about the slowness of the vaccine rollout (expect more delays) while the variants are filling hospitals in Ontario, Saskatchewan, B.C. and Alberta.
The wages of dithering
The people now occupying intensive care units are not old. They are largely under 65 years of age with severe COVID-19 disease. And that could have been prevented with some tough decisions. The Ontario internist Irfan Dhalla, who called for an elimination strategy last summer, notes that seven of Canada’s provinces and territories (the North and Atlantic Canada) have ended community spread because they went for zero. “But six have not aimed to stop all community transmission and all are suffering.â€
And by the way, every week the data on the long-haul effects of COVID-19 gets worse. It now seems that a third of the infected (that’s tens of thousands of people in Canada alone) suffer from a horror list of after-effects five months after hospitalization including chest pains, inflamed hearts, scarred lungs, shortness of breath, damaged kidneys, debilitating fatigue and brain fog. A majority of these patients are people of colour or women. (SARS and MERS, two other coronaviruses, left a messy trail of woe among their survivors too.)
Here’s what cultivated complacency in much of Canada has achieved in the under two months since I wrote my warning:
Two weeks ago, Regina had 36 cases of COVID-19 due to variants of concern. Now it has more than a thousand. The variants now represent 90 per cent of all infections and that city will be under a lockdown starting Sunday. And savour this fact: Saskatchewan, which boasted the least stringent measures for COVID-19 control, now has the highest rate of infection per 100,000 residents in the country. Congratulations, Mr. Moe.
British Columbia, one of the last provinces to adopt a mask mandate, is not far behind Saskatchewan. In the absence of bold action, its caseload will likely lead the nation next week on a per capita basis. Imagine, it is even reporting more cases than Washington State. “The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,†noted UBC evolutionary biologist Sally Otto to CTV News. But spotty data, insufficient testing and an incoherent strategy have underestimated the risks posed by variants as cases explode in the Lower Mainland. Congratulations, Mr. Horgan.
Alberta, which reluctantly imposed restrictions only after lackadaisically letting COVID-19 overrun its hospitals last November — a political act that killed hundreds of Albertans — now boasts the highest number of cumulative variant cases in the nation. Alberta thought it could avoid a third wave with half measures, and has failed again. Congratulations, Mr. Kenney. more.......
We Could Have Been Largely Free of the Pandemic by Now
How Canada’s leaders chose a third wave by deciding to muddle along.
Andrew Nikiforuk 25 Mar 2021 | TheTyee.ca
We’ve blown it again. Seven weeks ago, channelling a number of renowned experts, I warned that many parts of Canada would experience a third wave of the pandemic if provincial leaders didn’t get off their collective asses and change their failing strategy of yo-yo closures and openings with no regard for exponential growth.
Instead I recommended a no-nonsense elimination strategy — the Canadian Shield — with clear targets for reducing transmission devised by a collection of Canadian experts with the goal of banishing this multi-organ disease from our borders.
I warned that the variants of concern from the U.K., Brazil and South Africa represented another pandemic altogether.
I explained that these deadlier and highly contagious variants are harder and costlier to fight, and could undermine the vaccination program and plunge us into a third wave.
The uncertainty they represented added to the urgency of “going for zero†— a slogan that encompasses sharper restrictions on travel, imposing strict lockdowns, marking green zones rendered free of the virus and protecting them, relentlessly testing and tracing — and in the process systematically driving transmission to zero.
I also argued that bare-minimum muddling through by “living with†COVID-19 was a disastrous idea because this pandemic is not just about the dead but about the living.
I wrote that the experience of countries like New Zealand and Australia proved that eliminating the virus in our communities could be achieved in six weeks using going-for-zero tactics, but it would require committed leadership.
I wrote that on Jan. 28.
If our leaders had acted, Canada could now be COVID-free. Just like the Australians or Taiwanese, we could now be going to concerts and visiting relatives without fear. Our schools and our elders would be safe. Small businesses would be thriving.
Instead we find ourselves in a third wave fretting about the slowness of the vaccine rollout (expect more delays) while the variants are filling hospitals in Ontario, Saskatchewan, B.C. and Alberta.
The wages of dithering
The people now occupying intensive care units are not old. They are largely under 65 years of age with severe COVID-19 disease. And that could have been prevented with some tough decisions. The Ontario internist Irfan Dhalla, who called for an elimination strategy last summer, notes that seven of Canada’s provinces and territories (the North and Atlantic Canada) have ended community spread because they went for zero. “But six have not aimed to stop all community transmission and all are suffering.â€
And by the way, every week the data on the long-haul effects of COVID-19 gets worse. It now seems that a third of the infected (that’s tens of thousands of people in Canada alone) suffer from a horror list of after-effects five months after hospitalization including chest pains, inflamed hearts, scarred lungs, shortness of breath, damaged kidneys, debilitating fatigue and brain fog. A majority of these patients are people of colour or women. (SARS and MERS, two other coronaviruses, left a messy trail of woe among their survivors too.)
Here’s what cultivated complacency in much of Canada has achieved in the under two months since I wrote my warning:
Two weeks ago, Regina had 36 cases of COVID-19 due to variants of concern. Now it has more than a thousand. The variants now represent 90 per cent of all infections and that city will be under a lockdown starting Sunday. And savour this fact: Saskatchewan, which boasted the least stringent measures for COVID-19 control, now has the highest rate of infection per 100,000 residents in the country. Congratulations, Mr. Moe.
British Columbia, one of the last provinces to adopt a mask mandate, is not far behind Saskatchewan. In the absence of bold action, its caseload will likely lead the nation next week on a per capita basis. Imagine, it is even reporting more cases than Washington State. “The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,†noted UBC evolutionary biologist Sally Otto to CTV News. But spotty data, insufficient testing and an incoherent strategy have underestimated the risks posed by variants as cases explode in the Lower Mainland. Congratulations, Mr. Horgan.
Alberta, which reluctantly imposed restrictions only after lackadaisically letting COVID-19 overrun its hospitals last November — a political act that killed hundreds of Albertans — now boasts the highest number of cumulative variant cases in the nation. Alberta thought it could avoid a third wave with half measures, and has failed again. Congratulations, Mr. Kenney. more.......
Comment