Usda day !

[beaverdam]

These fogging marketing retards. I just got a marketing blast from Viterra 2 weeks ago saying durum stocks were plentiful.


Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 42.7 million
bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 22.6 million
bushels, are down 4 percent from March 1, 2020. Off-farm stocks totaled
20.1 million bushels, down 28 percent from a year ago. The
December 2020 - February 2021 indicated disappearance of 18.9 million bushels
is 46 percent above the same period a year earlier.

How many tonnes do you suppose "they" were able to pry from farmers hands??? especially with the downward push the last couple days.

It's a rhetorical question,,, no need to answer. It applies to the most NA grains, not just durum.

[beaverdam]

re Wheat; https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1419228/planting-intentions-for-33121 https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1419228/planting-intentions-for-33121

"All wheat planted area for 2021 is estimated at 46.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 2020. This represents the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2021 winter wheat planted area, at 33.1 million acres, is up 9 percent from last year and up 3 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 23.2 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.42 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.48 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2021 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, down 4 percent from 2020. Of this total, about 10.9 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2021 is expected to total 1.54 million acres, down 9 percent from the previous year."

[Old Cowzilla]

I think we just had a record dry spell for the month of March here in Manitoba if not close. You would think that might draw the attention of a few grain traders. I guess the wheat must of leaked out of those old wooden bins just like the canola and corn! Dam squirrels anyways !

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Here is a comment from New Ag Talk.

I don't believe the agricultural community understands what is going on with these reports. The world economies need inflation because Central Banks have done almost everything they could and could not get inflation on an upward slope after 11 plus years. The pandemic was a cutting edge moment to get inflation sloping upward. The opportunity to sprinkle in some positive headlines is now the fertilizer to keep the momentum going in an upward trajectory.

You can take these reports for what each one is from the USDA. The cookie will be taken away at the appropriate time when bond yields hit the targets the FED needs. Are they playing Russian Roulette at the highest level? You bet they are. A weather event can always ruin the best laid out scenario.

The equation is not about supply/demand and acres planted. The equation is a global push to achieve an outcome needed by Central Banks.

Any comments?

[burnt]

Here is a comment from New Ag Talk.


Any comments?

Can't be true.

Wouldn't that be unlawful? As in government colluding with business and industry?

And the media spinning the narrative?

[jazz]

Here is a comment from New Ag Talk.


Any comments?

That cant be the whole story. I mean the supply numbers are pretty telling. Fed cant print up wheat yet.

They may have been looking for inflation but I think there was something else in play in a long ignored industry.

I dont think I ever remember a yr where supply was off double digits from the previous yr, even in a disaster. If those supply and planting numbers are for real, the long odds say that farmers will not make back up those shortfalls in a single yr.

I mean china may have been in there front loading the trade back in the early fall. Maybe they are the ones to take the punchbowl away. I am more concerned about them than anything.

[Old Cowzilla]

So the way to get inflation by the big bank was to shut down small retail and the guy that sells at (everyday low prices ) stays open? All the rich people who couldn't keep up with spending their money are going to die and leave it to their kids or grandkids anyway. The reason banks are in trouble is because they shit on everyday people,forced them to deal with loan sharks and already pay high int. Their paycheck is used up nothing left. I got 40+ years of record books that tell me inflation has been live and well first new round baler $ 6700.00 , gas $0.65 a gallon not a litre , potash $90.0 0 ton , a house I built 23 years ago you couldn't put a 2 car garage on the side of it for that price.

[FarmJunkie]

Yup Cowzilla. About since deficit spending in our country. No way can the crap they sell be slightly above the cost of production. How the hell does steel go up every year. We live in a fixed society and most people are to dumb to see it or don’t care. Just laugh and pay the bill. Those days are getting to the end the shit shows gotta explode soon enuf u would think.

[Partners]

Markets taking a dump again?
Short lived rally.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I dont think I ever remember a yr where supply was off double digits from the previous yr, even in a disaster. If those supply and planting numbers are for real, the long odds say that farmers will not make back up those shortfalls in a single yr.

Arlan Suderman says minimum 18 months to rebuild supplies. That probably assumes that all goes well in that time.

[furrowtickler]

Next few months