Canola Market

[Goodtime]

And there she climbs again, this market is definitely not for people with bad nerves (if have unpriced canola).

[farming101]

Local April delivery bids were around a buck higher 3 weeks ago....

[Sodbuster]

Market is plenty nervous, still waiting for my target price at $845/tonne.

[furrowtickler]

I hope you get it 👍
This market can go anywhere now.
Will Be sharp movements on the slightest weather / market info

[Livewire]

ADM lloydminster was at 18.50 this morning. The high as far as I know there was 19.00

[Rareearth]

Sod you seem to be on top of it.

I cant remember if you locked in the basis, remember you would then be committed to delvery to them.

Will futures prices explode higher or the basis or both, thats the question.

Who would pay up, the export market or the crushers?

[Sodbuster]

Not sure whether I’m on top of it or just lucky, we locked in our basis three months ago when they were offering premiums and flipped our Mar contract to May to give us a +20 basis. If would of been more patient and savvy and flipped my contract at the end of February I could of been sitting n a +70 basis now but I don’t think anyone could of predicted a $70 inversion between the two front months.

As for prices I think we go higher to the end of this month, then we trade on weather for new crop as seeding starts. As far as basis goes with the inversion the front month is really the only one that counts. I think crushers will win the bidding over exporters. Crusher shutdowns for maintenance could put a damper on prices.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Quite the battle between the bulls and the bears.
May Canola has had a 30 cent swing already today.
MayBean oil nearly $2 swing.
How many traders make money in this these volatile swings and how many are just getting whipsawed and cutting their losses both ways?

[Rareearth]

Viterra likely posted big rain event for western canada, then no one could confirm?

[beaverdam]

Quite the battle between the bulls and the bears.
May Canola has had a 30 cent swing already today.
MayBean oil nearly $2 swing.
How many traders make money in this these volatile swings and how many are just getting whipsawed and cutting their losses both ways?

Whipsaw, isn't this how the "whales" wipe out the small positions, and those without the gravitas(or stupidity) not to get out of the way? Most smalls, can't take the losses.

Question yet, which way do the bigger whales want to take this thing? Probably best to keep watching the long range forecast, and hope you have the right information.

[shtferbrains]

Is actual canola in producers control a factor in this market at this point?
Be easier for crushers to add to crush inventory than exporters to assemble another cargo?

[Rareearth]

The exporters could hold some in storage at the port ( all the terminals will be empty) then they could be first to ship and collect the premium?

That would skew the carry over numbers.

[Sodbuster]

Canola showing some independent strength today with May up $15.00 and soybeans down 10 cents and Soyoil down $1.16.

[JoeyJeremiah]

A close above 800 today would be fantastic. It's poked up this high twice before but hasn't been able to sustain any strength. If it closes down today, that might be it for high price until the drought starts being traded.

[Partners]

Companies widened their basis by 20 bucks..