Barley Futures

[rain]

Barley futures are rocking through any levels I expected to see this year. Old crop in particular. I do not see any fundamental reason for old crop to bee where it is.

Someone enlighted me?

[melvill]

Three things:
1) much more optimism in the feeding industry regarding opening of the US border so more cattle going into feedlots (most on custom feed).
2) gotta buy back acres from canola or we won't have any barley acres, especially if we get some spring moisture.
3) US corn prices taking high so no possible relief there if we have a small barley crop.

[rain]

Yes your right for new crop. Demand for old, and possibly new crop do not justify these prices.

I still question if the CWB will get 2.5 million tonne of barley exported.

Does the CWB have to take the barley?

[melvill]

rain, a month and a half ago there were a lot of empty feedlot pens around here - most of the feeders were on farms using mostly roughage and less barley. Now the feedlots I see are filling up - 62-cent eight-weight animals will do that. More feedlots using more old-crop barley will push prices up. Plus there is probably some fund buying in there in old-crop months helping things out.

[charliep]

The last number I heard on CWB feed exports was 800,000 tonnes. Malt barley sales (export) are really slow so won't even attempt to put a number on. Don't know if the 2.5 MMT includes malt product. Depending on the answer to the last question, the export forecast is anywhere from 500,000 tonnes to 1.2 MMT too high.

Until more is know about the 2004 feed grain crop, look for prices to stay high. Lots of people with cattle will look at old crop supplies as insurance. Feedlots with a focus on margins/risk management have also been stepping up to the plate in buying western barley futures. Will stick by my guns that feed grains are the biggest wild card going into 2004/2005.

I encourage everyone to look at their feed versus malt variety decision carefully on a field by field basis. If you have a 75 % plus chance of selection, grow a malt variety. If you the probability is less than 75 %, seed the highest yielding feed variety you can lay your hands on.

[rain]

Doing a little more snooping. Manitoba corn may be exhausted and US corn is in the 190.00 range. Feed wheat is scarce.

[sshiels]

Feed wheat del Winnipeg today $170

[rain]

Feed wheat delivered Calgary $157.00

[Incognito]

Feed wheat mid-SK today bid $4.00 at the farm.

Feed barley bid $2.92 June/July mid-SK @ the farm.

What a week! Think the CWB is 90-95% sold yet with 4 months left to go?

C'mom Boone, I know you are still reading this! You can even use the proprietary rights to "whacko"!

[rain]

Incognito what crop year are you wondering about

[Incognito]

thats spot prices

[charliep]

Maybe the recommendation should be to push CPS/other higher yielding mid quality wheats in rotations (keeping in mind CPS wheat doesn't do as well in drought conditions as spring wheat). Keep both the feed and food alternatives open.