Big Day Today in Grain Markets!

[VK58]

Mother nature could cause a few other problems

As dry it is around here in Southern Manitoba, I would be very nervous about the amount of new crop priced canola I had to deliver.

[furrowtickler]

As dry it is around here in Southern Manitoba, I would be very nervous about the amount of new crop priced canola I had to deliver.

Most of Sask is dry as well , driest we have ever seen it this time of year

[Sodbuster]

Do you think if I short Canola the weather would change? A short today might bring rain by next weekend. 😂

Doesn’t work that way, if you short canola it won’t rain and than you will be making margin calls. Better off to go long if you want it to rain.

[Kraut]

The Statscan report today showed another big balance sheet discrepancy. It said canola on farms was 4.79 mmt, barely half of year-ago 9.06. Using previous StatsCan figures for ‘20 production (18.72 mmt) and farm carryin at July 31 (1.86 mmt) gives an on-farm supply of 20.56 mmt. Primary deliveries between July 1/20 and Mar 31/21 (week 34) were reported by the Grain Commission at 15.07 mmt. That should have left 5.49 mmt on farms Mar 31. The gap is approx 700,000 tonnes of canola, 3 weeks of use, that apparently never existed. Either the ‘20 canola harvest or carry-in was overestimated or Mar 31 stocks undercounted. According to these numbers there is enough canola to average deliveries of 266,000 tonnes a week to the end of the crop year and approx 218,000 to the first harvest. The average for the crop year to date is 435,000. The canola shortage is even tighter than thought.

[ry0972]

Sounds like a few farmers are asking about and actually buying out fall delivery contracts today with the drop in new crop futures and recent weather forecasts taking out any measurable rain for the next 2 weeks.
Range of $5 to $8 a bushel cost to buy out a contract depending on company, delivery month and if specialty canola!!
Retailers saying canola seed and some pea inoculant coming back or not getting picked up.
Wind yesterday and today is drying the top out even more.
Have heard some colonies and farms with livestock have switched canola and lentil acres to barley and oats to ensure they have feed for animals/birds and not having to buy any maybe.

[furrowtickler]

The Statscan report today showed another big balance sheet discrepancy. It said canola on farms was 4.79 mmt, barely half of year-ago 9.06. Using previous StatsCan figures for ‘20 production (18.72 mmt) and farm carryin at July 31 (1.86 mmt) gives an on-farm supply of 20.56 mmt. Primary deliveries between July 1/20 and Mar 31/21 (week 34) were reported by the Grain Commission at 15.07 mmt. That should have left 5.49 mmt on farms Mar 31. The gap is approx 700,000 tonnes of canola, 3 weeks of use, that apparently never existed. Either the ‘20 canola harvest or carry-in was overestimated or Mar 31 stocks undercounted. According to these numbers there is enough canola to average deliveries of 266,000 tonnes a week to the end of the crop year and approx 218,000 to the first harvest. The average for the crop year to date is 435,000. The canola shortage is even tighter than thought.

Yup , imagine that , both were overestimated in all crops

[agstar77]

We have seeded wheat but will not seed oilseeds unless it rains.

[jazz]

We have seeded wheat but will not seed oilseeds unless it rains.

Seeding canola into powder today. That's how we always roll in the Paliser.

US weather service showing rain 10d out.

[Rareearth]

Cargil must be full and booked up, 0 basis now at crusher. Thats a $1.50 a bushel lower than a couple days ago when basis was +$65

Thats a slap to the side of the head.

[crusher]

Bunge also narrowed in old crop but only $10/t. I've seen enough. The last is getting signed up at $24.29. That's a big number.