Moisture Conditions/Acreage Shifts

[charliep]

Time of the year when I start bugging everyone about moisture conditions/acreage shifts. Let us know your general location.

1) How are top soil conditions like?

2) What major shifts in crop acres are occurring in your community from normal rotations? Is the expected 10 to 20 % increase in western Canadian canola acres showing up? What are the key issues farmers will be considering in uncommitted acres to specific crops?

[lakenheath]

Southwest Saskatchewan:

Shift from durum acres to spring wheat. Many large durum producers in the area are moving away from there normal durum acres.

Also a large shift upwards in lentil acres (especially Milestone).

[JACKFLASH]

Never saw a spring like this in the Southeast Sask. area. We had very good snowfall. Bluffs blown right full, this is where our dugouts are situated. They are only half full. All the snow went straight down no runoff.

Canola,flax,peas, big acres,wheat and durum acres steady,at the expense of barley, oats,and mustards.

Dugouts going to get pumped and if we get a windy hot April were going to need rain ib time. Not to mention the millions of hopper eggs waiting to hatch.

[charliep]

Concensus put Canadian canola at 13 mln acres this spring (up 10 % from 2004) at a Alberta canola industry meeting I attended today. Most brought number from the number they would have used a month ago given new crop price improvements on the grain side.

What are others thinking?

[charliep]

Above should be up 10 % from 2003 (not 2004). Just to put some production numbers to, that puts Canadian canola production in a range of 7 to 8 MMT (average 24 bushels/acre low end/27 bushels/acre high end).

[charliep]

Just putting a note to encourage comments.

[Ron]

North of Red Deer it is extremely dry, moist soil 12-18 inches on stubble, the creeks didnt run this spring at all. I have been discing sloughbottoms and water runs to seed down to hay the last week. I am looking at more wheat acres as I am not sure about canola germinating (I booked NC canola at 8.15 and cps wheat through the board at 4.27 not sure which is better, if it doesnt rain neither will be enough)

[crusher]

Thinking of shifting down the huge canola acre plan because we are now seeing some reasonable alternatives. Finora has reasonable new crop tonnage or production contracts on peas. Board fixed price looked pretty good until today, but it hasn't come near breaking the uptrend.
I am still planning for average yields. The five inches of snow we are forcast should help. We're not ready to hit the fields for 10 days anyway. With the Oilers making an early exit, we should be able to put big hours on the seeder and timely plant that bin buster of a crop!