Summer Crash?

[errolanderson]

Errol, this is the big difference now.

Economy may be fake, may be over extended and divorced from reality, but money printing hides all that and that can go on for a long time. We are 50 yrs from the gold standard and still going. Japan is insolvent as fck and they still keep the lights on.

[ATTACH]8517[/ATTACH]

Jazz, good point . . . In my view, the money printing gig is up. Fed wants out (tamper). Why? It's no longer working. Economics of diminishing returns in full sight . . . .

It will not trigger hyperinflation (IMO) . . . . But there is heightened risk of a meltdown, correction, crash (whatever everyone calls it). Commodities are already leading the way . . . .

[biglentil]

Jazz, good point . . . In my view, the money printing gig is up. Fed wants out (tamper). Why? It's no longer working. Economics of diminishing returns in full sight . . . .

It will not trigger hyperinflation (IMO) . . . . But there is heightened risk of a meltdown, correction, crash (whatever everyone calls it). Commodities are already leading the way . . . .

The very idea that dollars gain purchasing power would mean that central banks could print dollars to infinity with no affect on consumer prices.

From over 200 examples of fiat currency failure due to debasement we know this not the case.

The gig is up additional stimulus is not working, interest rates are already near zero. Raising rates would cause a debt crisis. The can has been kicked as far as possible. They did amazingly well average life span of a fiat currency is 40 years, we are at 50.

It's a race to the bottom.

[burnt]

Daily corn charts shows a triple bottom in the $5 -$5.08 range? Volume down on each low - usually considered supportive.

The weekly and monthly counter-indicate the daily with a lot of downside.

Errol, your thoughts?

I find this view of the Brazilian fields quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/siqueiradaniele

Smallest corn crop in 10 years with very high import numbers. No increase in planting intentions either.

Should all be supportive for feed grains.

Haven't forward contracted any new crop corn, much to my chagrin. I don't like to go direct to the elevator with crop when I have my own drying and handling facilities.

But this year we already watched $30/Ton new crop vanish into thin air, far more than what my handle will return if the market levels out.

[errolanderson]

Daily corn charts shows a triple bottom in the $5 -$5.08 range? Volume down on each low - usually considered supportive.

The weekly and monthly counter-indicate the daily with a lot of downside.

Errol, your thoughts?

I find this view of the Brazilian fields quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/siqueiradaniele

Smallest corn crop in 10 years with very high import numbers. No increase in planting intentions either.

Should all be supportive for feed grains.

Haven't forward contracted any new crop corn, much to my chagrin. I don't like to go direct to the elevator with crop when I have my own drying and handling facilities.

But this year we already watched $30/Ton new crop vanish into thin air, far more than what my handle will return if the market levels out.

Burnt, key support for Dec corn is a hair above $5/bu. Friday’s USDA report may dictate whether key support of $5 will break or not. It’s about yield and export projections. Private analyst corn yields appear well above USDA’s latest cut to 174 bu/acre. They are heard as much as 8 bu higher than USDA. USDA has to cut their corn export number, simply too high (IMO). Corn needs bullish data NOW to reverse this downtrend. Should Dec break $5, there is a nasty little chart gap around $4.80/bu.

Friday, USDA will tell us all . . . .

[burnt]

Rather supports what I am sensing in the market.

Likely a good time to have some locked in.

Thank you.

[shtferbrains]

$4B of paper gold dumped on the market in a fraction of second late Sunday evening. Sound like a reasonable way to offload a position to you Errol?

So are you saying the Chicoms CAN manipulate the market?

[shtferbrains]

With reference to inflation in the meat counter was at Costco yesterday.
A 2 rib roast $80.

Was 4 of them sitting there so less than 1/2 of one side. $320

26 ribs X $40 each $1040

Not hard to see why packers are buying all the calves.

[shtferbrains]

Here is an interesting article on the Chicoms manipulating the commodity markets with the products they have been stockpiling.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/9/china-sells-oil-reserves-to-lower-prices-in-unprecedented-move

Oil is the feature of this article but it mentions most commodities that they are major buyers of.

In a late statement on Thursday, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said the country had tapped its giant oil reserves to “to ease the pressure of rising raw material prices.”

Also;

China has been selling other commodities from its strategic reserves, including copper, aluminum and grains. In the past, Beijing rarely confirmed the releases, which have tended to filter into the market via trader talk. The public release is being seen by many as an attempt to maximize the impact of the move.

Of coarse they can't influence world prices!*

[Ache4Acres]

Biden taper talk is hilarious considering he has plans to punch the go button on 4Trillion more stimulus ASAP.

That sounds more like the plan. Tell everyone we are tapering and then print money as fast as possible to keep the show going.

Zero chance of raising rates. As I have said for years this is going toward more negative rates and more money printing...just as planned. Worldwide race to the bottom
And when every single person is heavily drunk on cheap money with massive debt. Whammo. Welcome to the great reset. Will be worldwide collapse like never seen before. Might be next week, next month or 10 years but it’s coming.

plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[burnt]

Biden taper talk is hilarious considering he has plans to punch the go button on 4Trillion more stimulus ASAP.

That sounds more like the plan. Tell everyone we are tapering and then print money as fast as possible to keep the show going.

Zero chance of raising rates. As I have said for years this is going toward more negative rates and more money printing...just as planned. Worldwide race to the bottom
And when every single person is heavily drunk on cheap money with massive debt. Whammo. Welcome to the great reset. Will be worldwide collapse like never seen before. Might be next week, next month or 10 years but it’s coming.

plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Could anyone set up a better, more certain scheme to make private property ownership unaffordabe?

Ultimate goal outlined in Habitat 1, being rolled put into motion.

Only the super-wealthy will have private possessions.