Summer Crash?

[errolanderson]

Hong Kong stock market dropping. Apparently the 50-day moving average crossed the 100-day. This is called a death cross to traders. A technical warning.

Oil price reversal today?

Toronto real estate bubble may have popped.

Fed aggresively in reverse repo mode, QE being pulled.

This all suggests potential heightened market turbulence heading into late summer (IMO).

[Old Cowzilla]

Average house price in T.O. still a million bucks. Hi-way super busy now and more big birds in the air so oil not dropping any time soon. The effects of the western Canada drought won't likely show up till around Christmas time. People can move more freely so they are partying like it's 1999 !

[wheatking16]

Bonds continue gaining relative to the S&P 500 with the TLT/SPY ratio consolidating above the 50 Day Moving Average.

What does this “smart” money risk-off strategy tell you?

https://klarenbach.substack.com/p/bonds-gaining-interest https://klarenbach.substack.com/p/bonds-gaining-interest

[errolanderson]

Hang Seng indexes (Hong Kong) appear in some form of collapse. Asian VIX volatily indexes rocketed 12 to 15 percent higher overnight.

WTI crude broke below $70 per barrel, loonie tumbling. Dow off solidly overnight. Gold getting slammed. Cryptos wobbly . . . .

China banking concerns surfacing. EU financials?

Rough and tumble Monday shaping up . . . .

[furrowtickler]

You finally might be right
It is mid summer
Hopefully deflation happens in our inputs and machinery.
Going to be hard to put a crop in next year with no crop on many areas and the rampant inflation that has occurred in the ag industry.

[errolanderson]

You finally might be right
It is mid summer
Hopefully deflation happens in our inputs and machinery.
Going to be hard to put a crop in next year with no crop on many areas and the rampant inflation that has occurred in the ag industry.

Believe big three (3) to watch . . . crude oil, equities and real estate (the sitting duck). Also, the steady decline in U.S. treasury yields contributing selling.

[bucket]

Any talk of a covid outbreak in Vietnam?

[Rareearth]

Thanks Errol
I cant see interest rates going up any time soon.

[jazz]

Fed will be back in buying hard overnight. Oil will be triple digits this time next yr. Covid head fake.

[errolanderson]

Thanks Errol
I cant see interest rates going up any time soon.

Not a hope for rate hikes. That would be poison for asset values and the stock market. But where to now? There really aren’t any choices left.

10-year U.S. treasury yields are plunging, below 1.20 percent today, a 5-month low. Bond markets are now telling a very different story about inflation.

Many asset classes are now at-risk of incoming rapid deflation, not stagflation (IMO) as recently advertised by Wall Street. Nobody wants to pay the piper or even admit that debt is a problem for markets.

What’s ahead is the fallout of manipulated economics.

[jazz]

Rapid deflation = feeding frenzy by the rich. No?

Markets back up hard today.

If this was 2006 I would be in agreement with errol, but the fed is in there hard. They use the FX markets to blunt the inflation signals and push them under ground and into energy. But its still there and likely heading to double digits. Food is next.

A prominent economist has predicted the fed balance sheet will inflate to 40T over the next 20 yrs with probably a similar number for the US debt. I believe him.

[errolanderson]

Money sloshing through the system generated by the Fed continues to mire investors in-blinded-complacency. But the Fed now attempting to lower their astronomically bloated balance sheet.

Recovery to Dow record-highs after a brief selloff early week has a very weak foundation (IMO). Bond market action and transport sector turning down, (a warning).

An opinion, see further recovery in the U.S. dollar (safehaven), gold at-risk of further declines. Sense crude oil drop possible and further loonie weakness straight ahead.

Realize this sounds like a fool after the Dow hit historic highs on Friday, but . . . stock markets now at elevated risk of a sharp sell-off before fall market (IMO). ProMarket Wire, Calgary