Summer Crash?

[jazz]

PS: U.S. congress missed debt ceiling. Treasury dept using emergency cash saving measures.

And the stock market rallies today . . . .

errol, the US has had that debt ceiling head fake going on for 20 yrs now. Its all noise. US wont default that way.

But I would be interested in your views on the actions in the repo market. A trillion is being parked their overnight. Banks would rather take a miniscule premium than lend it out into the economy? Sounds like they are questioning where the reinflation trade goes from here. People took govt money and blew it or upgraded their home or car. None of it went into improving productive capacity. The high in the US economy is probably going to wear off pretty fast.

[errolanderson]

errol, the US has had that debt ceiling head fake going on for 20 yrs now. Its all noise. US wont default that way.

But I would be interested in your views on the actions in the repo market. A trillion is being parked their overnight. Banks would rather take a miniscule premium than lend it out into the economy? Sounds like they are questioning where the reinflation trade goes from here. People took govt money and blew it or upgraded their home or car. None of it went into improving productive capacity. The high in the US economy is probably going to wear off pretty fast.

The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds fell below 1.20 percent today. A very ugly chart. It appears that China sneezing is giving the U.S. a cold . . . .

Bond market is a key indicator.

[errolanderson]

Gold crash in the past 24 hours with crude oil not far behind. Gold is a key indicator of the true health of inflation.

Crude oil is the king of commodities. This will have a direct influence on the ethanol market ie: corn.

And corn is king of grain markets. They are all tied together . . . .

[the big wheel]

Gold crash in the past 24 hours with crude oil not far behind. Gold is a key indicator of the true health of inflation.

Crude oil is the king of commodities. This will have a direct influence on the ethanol market ie: corn.

And corn is king of grain markets. They are all tied together . . . .

I think maybe things are a little different if you don’t
Pay you don’t eat. Not a bountiful supply of things
To chew on. And if another drought next year
Look out. No one will be worried about what a
Vehicle costs or if it’s electric they’ll just want to eat.

[biglentil]

Gold crash in the past 24 hours with crude oil not far behind. Gold is a key indicator of the true health of inflation.

Crude oil is the king of commodities. This will have a direct influence on the ethanol market ie: corn.

And corn is king of grain markets. They are all tied together . . . .

$4B of paper gold dumped on the market in a fraction of second late Sunday evening. Sound like a reasonable way to offload a position to you Errol?

[errolanderson]

$4B of paper gold dumped on the market in a fraction of second late Sunday evening. Sound like a reasonable way to offload a position to you Errol?

Yes, this was a flash crash. But it has done damage. A big squeese where a massive amount of money changed teams in a matter of minutes. But was this; ‘get out of Dodge while the going’s good’?

China is in a major slowdown and they represent 50 percent of the entire global commodity demand.

Pork movement down 20 percent in July from previous year. Lean hogs ‘limit down’ today. Copper sales now down 10 percent.

These are strange and strained times. But as you can tell, I don’t buy into the prolonged inflation storyline at all . . . .

[jazz]

Deflationary, in places. But not all. Supermarket shock today in the meat isle. Container shipping costs have doubled. Containers returning to china empty. No exports?

This is perhaps more classic stagflation aka 1970s.

But something is very off.

[errolanderson]

Deflationary, in places. But not all. Supermarket shock today in the meat isle. Container shipping has doubled.

This is perhaps more classic stagflation aka 1970s.

Good point jazz . . . container shipping rates are through the roof, but not sustainable (IMO) for any length of time.

Group, my apologies for being so opinionated and generally a pain-in-the-ass. But in my eyes, can see this clear as day . . . .

[furrowtickler]

We said piss on it , bought a new grain cart
Should be one load a day ...

[burnt]

Errol, any opinion on which way corn is going to break out? Building some energy there, imho.

The opportunity is there to lock in new crop at prices that corn growers could only dream of their entire farming years. Until this summer...

Right now, however, booking at almost $ 60 - $100/T under current cash prices looks unattractive.

Getting greedy can hurt you as much as bad weather?

[errolanderson]

Errol, any opinion on which way corn is going to break out? Building some energy there, imho.

The opportunity is there to lock in new crop at prices that corn growers could only dream of their entire farming years. Until this summer...

Right now, however, booking at almost $ 60 - $100/T under current cash prices looks unattractive.

Getting greedy can hurt you as much as bad weather?

Charts are showing a pennant formation for both corn and soybeans. And Thursday is USDA report. Break up, break down will depend on this report.

But bull has to be fed . . . .

[burnt]

One trading firm I once followed used to say that "Markets go where they hurt the most people the most".