Summer Crash?

[burnt]

Charts are showing a pennant formation for both corn and soybeans. And Thursday is USDA report. Break up, break down will depend on this report.

But bull has to be fed . . . .

I forget, or never did know - do bulls thrive on technicals?

Still gaps above the pennant at U $5.80 and Z $5.73. They seldom go unfilled. But such a move would have little effect on the what-appears-to-be-general down trend. Only that pennants tend to break opposite of the trend.

C'mon errol, do you do technicals?

[errolanderson]

I forget, or never did know - do bulls thrive on technicals?

Still gaps above the pennant at U $5.80 and Z $5.73. They seldom go unfilled. But such a move would have little effect on the what-appears-to-be-general down trend. Only that pennants tend to break opposite of the trend.

C'mon errol, do you do technicals?

burnt, you are right that chart gaps generally get filled.

And Thursday may provide the news to fill those gaps. But it also provides the hedger an opportunity to lay in some higher short positions at those chart gaps.

Works as well for charts showing lower chart gaps. Set your buys near or at these lower gaps. Cattle feeders hedging feed costs may target this.

[burnt]

Thanks. We will see. I think there's a big crop coming together in the Corn Belt from road trip reports I'm hearing.

[errolanderson]

Heavy pressure now hitting both global equities and commodities. Talk on Wall Street is Fed slowing money printing presses in 2022 (tampering).

But root of this is far deeper (IMO). Asia has been in an equity selloff through August on slowing economy ie: demand. USD breaking into a new higher trading window. Loonie hammered . . . .

[the big wheel]

Charts are a fools delight. Did any chart
Anywhere predict 20 buck canola? Etc etc
Not one. Any event now days can move
Commodities you if down in the blink of
An eye. We have movements of dollar bushel
Difference in a matter of days. Most of
Which has nothing to do with charts but more
To do with dominance of industries by a
Few players. The market is corrupt. The
Corruptors that can move the market can
And do make millions all by their own actions.

[errolanderson]

U.S. consumer confidence is now in-a-freefall, the lowest level in more than a decade. This is now a fast incoming recession (IMO).

The irony is: stock analysts want bad news to rally the stock market even higher as central banks will let the easy money roll. How the world of economics and reality have been turned upside down. But for commodities, look out (IMO) . . . .

[errolanderson]

U.S. consumer confidence is now in-a-freefall, the lowest level in more than a decade. This is now a fast incoming recession (IMO).

The irony is: stock analysts want bad news to rally the stock market even higher as central banks will let the easy money roll. How the world of economics and reality have been turned upside down. But for commodities, look out (IMO) . . . .

An alert (in our view) . . . .

[biglentil]

Going to cash while hyperinflation breaks out. Can't think of a worse strategy.

[Rareearth]

It will be more about cash flow and “good debt”

My definition of good debt - debt that creates income, is a asset with appreciation opportunities, and/or contributes significantly to efficiency reducing labour and other expenses

[jazz]

Errol, this is the big difference now.

Economy may be fake, may be over extended and divorced from reality, but money printing hides all that and that can go on for a long time. We are 50 yrs from the gold standard and still going. Japan is insolvent as fck and they still keep the lights on.

[errolanderson]

Errol, this is the big difference now.

Economy may be fake, may be over extended and divorced from reality, but money printing hides all that and that can go on for a long time. We are 50 yrs from the gold standard and still going. Japan is insolvent as fck and they still keep the lights on.

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Jazz, good point . . . In my view, the money printing gig is up. Fed wants out (tamper). Why? It's no longer working. Economics of diminishing returns in full sight . . . .

It will not trigger hyperinflation (IMO) . . . . But there is heightened risk of a meltdown, correction, crash (whatever everyone calls it). Commodities are already leading the way . . . .

[biglentil]

Jazz, good point . . . In my view, the money printing gig is up. Fed wants out (tamper). Why? It's no longer working. Economics of diminishing returns in full sight . . . .

It will not trigger hyperinflation (IMO) . . . . But there is heightened risk of a meltdown, correction, crash (whatever everyone calls it). Commodities are already leading the way . . . .

The very idea that dollars gain purchasing power would mean that central banks could print dollars to infinity with no affect on consumer prices.

From over 200 examples of fiat currency failure due to debasement we know this not the case.

The gig is up additional stimulus is not working, interest rates are already near zero. Raising rates would cause a debt crisis. The can has been kicked as far as possible. They did amazingly well average life span of a fiat currency is 40 years, we are at 50.

It's a race to the bottom.

[burnt]

Daily corn charts shows a triple bottom in the $5 -$5.08 range? Volume down on each low - usually considered supportive.

The weekly and monthly counter-indicate the daily with a lot of downside.

Errol, your thoughts?

I find this view of the Brazilian fields quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/siqueiradaniele

Smallest corn crop in 10 years with very high import numbers. No increase in planting intentions either.

Should all be supportive for feed grains.

Haven't forward contracted any new crop corn, much to my chagrin. I don't like to go direct to the elevator with crop when I have my own drying and handling facilities.

But this year we already watched $30/Ton new crop vanish into thin air, far more than what my handle will return if the market levels out.

[errolanderson]

Daily corn charts shows a triple bottom in the $5 -$5.08 range? Volume down on each low - usually considered supportive.

The weekly and monthly counter-indicate the daily with a lot of downside.

Errol, your thoughts?

I find this view of the Brazilian fields quite interesting.

https://twitter.com/siqueiradaniele

Smallest corn crop in 10 years with very high import numbers. No increase in planting intentions either.

Should all be supportive for feed grains.

Haven't forward contracted any new crop corn, much to my chagrin. I don't like to go direct to the elevator with crop when I have my own drying and handling facilities.

But this year we already watched $30/Ton new crop vanish into thin air, far more than what my handle will return if the market levels out.

Burnt, key support for Dec corn is a hair above $5/bu. Friday’s USDA report may dictate whether key support of $5 will break or not. It’s about yield and export projections. Private analyst corn yields appear well above USDA’s latest cut to 174 bu/acre. They are heard as much as 8 bu higher than USDA. USDA has to cut their corn export number, simply too high (IMO). Corn needs bullish data NOW to reverse this downtrend. Should Dec break $5, there is a nasty little chart gap around $4.80/bu.

Friday, USDA will tell us all . . . .

[burnt]

Rather supports what I am sensing in the market.

Likely a good time to have some locked in.

Thank you.