Good to see markets rebound a bit

[furrowtickler]

Wheat been holding its own, up this morning decent
Hopefully recent crash in oilseeds was simply an overreacted correction.
End of the day supplies are still very thin in NA

[bucket]

And by what I have read about the northern tier states the crop isn't getting larger.

WE are half way through June and really there has not been substantial rain to offset the soil moisture deficit.

This is FPS week if I am not mistaken where there is usually a rush inside at the show because of rain...

While I realize it virtual ....it doesnt look like much rain for this week or the coming week either.

[agstar77]

The ongoing drought in SW U.S. is not going away. Record heat weather or climate change is not diminishing. Unless there is a major shift grain prices are not going anywhere.

[sumdumguy]

Ii listen to Sirius Radio, Chanel about 145 and they are talking about Kansas Wheat Harvest. Varying yields,, not bumper with protein levels in 7-9 range. They are hoping to see 11% later on.

[furrowtickler]

The Dakotas and Montana not good at all. Way too late for beneficial rains in many cases

[sumdumguy]

Farm Progress Week is usually around June 16-18?

[Sodbuster]

Had some wheat trigger this morning at $9.40, puts me at 50% sold. Hope it has more legs before the July month closes otherwise I think I’ll flip it to Mar or May 22 to extend this rally. Big market moves both ways on all grains, anything is possible at this point with the dryness down south.

[furrowtickler]

Had some wheat trigger this morning at $9.40, puts me at 50% sold. Hope it has more legs before the July month closes otherwise I think I’ll flip it to Mar or May 22 to extend this rally. Big market moves both ways on all grains, anything is possible at this point with the dryness down south.

You are a very patient marketer, good to see some can hold as long as you 👍

[Sodbuster]

You are a very patient marketer, good to see some can hold as long as you 👍

I sort of missed the boat last week with no targets in place put some targets in earlier this week. Wheat was all hauled out after seeding, basis was set last December with nothing priced. Basis really sucks now compared to last December.

[poorboy]

I sort of missed the boat last week with no targets in place put some targets in earlier this week. Wheat was all hauled out after seeding, basis was set last December with nothing priced. Basis really sucks now compared to last December.

Have you found that summer basis is normally higher in the winter months than it is in June/July? I usually hold my last wheat and sell it during a little rally in June/July thinking the basis was also better in the summer, but never really every watched basis that close.

[Sodbuster]

Most years the May basis is the strongest as not many like to haul in May. Every year is different but most times I will contract the basis 1st before pricing the futures month on wheat and canola. I’ve been dealing with Cargill for quite a few years now and they are pretty flexible on deliveries. We don’t haul our own grain so I usually have someone around to load trucks during seeding.

[shtferbrains]

Read about 2 weeks ago the Chinese central planers were looking for ways to cool the commodity market.
I'm sure that wasn't when they started planning but was when they wanted it announced.
Looks like they are bringing it all together with numerous announcements aimed at restricting demand.
Going to be an eye opener to see how much they are able to manipulate it at this stage.
Can they tank commodoties without killing thier own export markets?


Hang on this might get wacky.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Read about 2 weeks ago the Chinese central planers were looking for ways to cool the commodity market.
I'm sure that wasn't when they started planning but was when they wanted it announced.
Looks like they are bringing it all together with numerous announcements aimed at restricting demand.
Going to be an eye opener to see how much they are able to manipulate it at this stage.
Can they tank commodoties without killing thier own export markets?


Hang on this might get wacky.

While China has been quite public about their intentions to control commodity inflation, and speculation, The rest of the world is quietly trying to keep inflation from getting out of control too fast, to avoid having to raise interest rates and crashing the entire party.
This correction happened to coincide with G7 meeting, and big USD strength.
Bearish news stories at the same time.
Probably all coincidences?

No doubt, the commodities with elastic supply and demand got well ahead of themselves. Not so sure that food fits into the elastic category. China was back in the market buying soybeans in a big way on Friday after the crash. The crash that they helped originate in the first place.

Then there is this:

“China's decisions around its agricultural policy are becoming increasingly murky with news of arrests, secrecy, and claims of cover-ups.
Chinese officials are cracking down on independent information about grain pricing.”

“A Chinese grains analyst has reportedly been jailed and another is said to be under house arrest.
Independent analysts who report on China's grains industry have reportedly been arrested and their online businesses shut down to stop them from telling the truth about the country's below-average crop.”

From ABC, not a conspiracy website. https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-17/missing-china-grains-analyst/100219524?utm_campaign=news-article-share-control&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared &utm_source=abc_news_web https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-17/missing-china-grains-analyst/100219524?utm_campaign=news-article-share-control&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared &utm_source=abc_news_web

China didn't come into the feed grain market in a big way and drive prices up because they had bumper crops and a surplus at home.
For the past few weeks I've been trying to find info on China's crops this year. I've heard that there are droughts and floods again similar to last year, but not much of anything I can find online. As it turns out, that really wasn't just a coincidence according to the article.
Sounds like the weather hasn't been as disasterous as last year, but not much on the ground info available, just inferences from the weather.

With all the talk about releasing strategic reserves this week, nothing was said about releasing grains, unless I missed it. Most recent news I can find is early April about releasing rice and wheat into the feed market, April news is not exactly a market mover in June.

With such a well advertised public campaign to reduce prices, I have to ask, is there any entity large enough, or with enough will power to call their bluff? Especially on food products?

[furrowtickler]

Wow does that seem eerily similar to what’s happening in Canada now on so many levels .

BTW , thanks for all the replies , good info 👍

[Guest]

Had some wheat trigger this morning at $9.40, puts me at 50% sold. Hope it has more legs before the July month closes otherwise I think I’ll flip it to Mar or May 22 to extend this rally. Big market moves both ways on all grains, anything is possible at this point with the dryness down south.

oh, where was that at ? about 3/4 of a buck higher than market