Good to see markets rebound a bit

[Sodbuster]

Most years the May basis is the strongest as not many like to haul in May. Every year is different but most times I will contract the basis 1st before pricing the futures month on wheat and canola. I’ve been dealing with Cargill for quite a few years now and they are pretty flexible on deliveries. We don’t haul our own grain so I usually have someone around to load trucks during seeding.

[shtferbrains]

Read about 2 weeks ago the Chinese central planers were looking for ways to cool the commodity market.
I'm sure that wasn't when they started planning but was when they wanted it announced.
Looks like they are bringing it all together with numerous announcements aimed at restricting demand.
Going to be an eye opener to see how much they are able to manipulate it at this stage.
Can they tank commodoties without killing thier own export markets?


Hang on this might get wacky.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Read about 2 weeks ago the Chinese central planers were looking for ways to cool the commodity market.
I'm sure that wasn't when they started planning but was when they wanted it announced.
Looks like they are bringing it all together with numerous announcements aimed at restricting demand.
Going to be an eye opener to see how much they are able to manipulate it at this stage.
Can they tank commodoties without killing thier own export markets?


Hang on this might get wacky.

While China has been quite public about their intentions to control commodity inflation, and speculation, The rest of the world is quietly trying to keep inflation from getting out of control too fast, to avoid having to raise interest rates and crashing the entire party.
This correction happened to coincide with G7 meeting, and big USD strength.
Bearish news stories at the same time.
Probably all coincidences?

No doubt, the commodities with elastic supply and demand got well ahead of themselves. Not so sure that food fits into the elastic category. China was back in the market buying soybeans in a big way on Friday after the crash. The crash that they helped originate in the first place.

Then there is this:

“China's decisions around its agricultural policy are becoming increasingly murky with news of arrests, secrecy, and claims of cover-ups.
Chinese officials are cracking down on independent information about grain pricing.”

“A Chinese grains analyst has reportedly been jailed and another is said to be under house arrest.
Independent analysts who report on China's grains industry have reportedly been arrested and their online businesses shut down to stop them from telling the truth about the country's below-average crop.”

From ABC, not a conspiracy website. https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-17/missing-china-grains-analyst/100219524?utm_campaign=news-article-share-control&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared &utm_source=abc_news_web https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-06-17/missing-china-grains-analyst/100219524?utm_campaign=news-article-share-control&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared &utm_source=abc_news_web

China didn't come into the feed grain market in a big way and drive prices up because they had bumper crops and a surplus at home.
For the past few weeks I've been trying to find info on China's crops this year. I've heard that there are droughts and floods again similar to last year, but not much of anything I can find online. As it turns out, that really wasn't just a coincidence according to the article.
Sounds like the weather hasn't been as disasterous as last year, but not much on the ground info available, just inferences from the weather.

With all the talk about releasing strategic reserves this week, nothing was said about releasing grains, unless I missed it. Most recent news I can find is early April about releasing rice and wheat into the feed market, April news is not exactly a market mover in June.

With such a well advertised public campaign to reduce prices, I have to ask, is there any entity large enough, or with enough will power to call their bluff? Especially on food products?

[furrowtickler]

Wow does that seem eerily similar to what’s happening in Canada now on so many levels .

BTW , thanks for all the replies , good info 👍

[Guest]

Had some wheat trigger this morning at $9.40, puts me at 50% sold. Hope it has more legs before the July month closes otherwise I think I’ll flip it to Mar or May 22 to extend this rally. Big market moves both ways on all grains, anything is possible at this point with the dryness down south.

oh, where was that at ? about 3/4 of a buck higher than market

[Sodbuster]

July MWE opened up 33 cents tonight, most of the other grains up or down a little. What driving minny wheat tonight?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

July MWE opened up 33 cents tonight, most of the other grains up or down a little. What driving minny wheat tonight?

Crop ratings released after market closed. Spring wheat Good/Excellent dropped 9 points on the week. Now much lower than the Poor/ Very poor category.
2nd worst ever. Only 1988 was worse.
All grains dropped in condition, just not as drastically.

[FarmJunkie]

Been a cheap food policy forever. The more they lie about production the more they can steal. I believe wheats gonna head way higher after all is said and done this year. N.A. Production gonna be way down.

[Guest]

July MWE opened up 33 cents tonight, most of the other grains up or down a little. What driving minny wheat tonight?

not gonna tell us where it was ?

[furrowtickler]

Canola taking a run on its own away from soybeans today .